Category Archive: FX

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan

George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers.
George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

FX Weekly Preview: FOMC and ECB Highlight Central Banks’ Last Meetings of the Year

No fewer than thirteen central banks meet in the week ahead. The UK and the US report the latest inflation figures, and the US and eurozone report industrial production. The eurozone sees the flash PMI for December, and the Japan's latest Tankan business survey will be released.

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FX Daily, December 08: Brexit Talks Move to Stage II, While Greenback Remains Firm

Sufficient progress will be judged to have been made, and negotiations of the separation between the UK and EU will be allowed to enter the second stage. The formal decision will be made at next week's EU summit. To be sure, "sufficient progress," which the diplomatic-speak that does not mean that any agreement has really been reached, but rather that the UK has made a few concessionary signals.

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FX Daily, December 07: Equities and Oil Stabilize

Global equities are stabilizing today after the recent downside pressure. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped an eight-day slump with a 0.4% gain, led by a rebound in Tokyo and India. European markets are firm, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 up around 0.25% near midday in London. All sectors are higher but telecom and real estate are performing best, while energy and health care are laggards.

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Great Graphic: Euro Pushes below November Uptrend

Euro is lower for the third day, the longest downdraft in a month and a half. It violated the November uptrend. It is testing the $1.1800 area, which houses a few technical levels (retracement, moving average and congestion).

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FX Daily, December 06: Equity Slump Continues, Lifts Bonds, Bolsters Yen

The swoon in equities, perhaps sparked by a rotation spurred by potential US tax changes, is continuing today. It is providing a risk-off mood, which is expressed in the foreign exchange market as a stronger yen. The most compelling answer of yen strength is not that investors are buying yen as a haven.

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FX Daily, December 05: Sterling Sold on Negotiating Snafu, Aussie Bounces on Retail Sales and RBA

The US dollar is confined to narrow ranges against the euro and yen, straddling unchanged levels in the Asian session and the European morning. The action in elsewhere. The British pound is the weakest of the majors, paring 0.4% against the greenback, though around $1.3425, it can hardly be considered weak. A month ago, sterling was a few cents lower. Still, its gains reflected two things: broader dollar weakness and optimism on Brexit talks.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 04/12/2017 – USD/CHF, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD

USD/CHF, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD

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FX Daily, December 04: US Dollar Marked Higher After Senate Passes Tax Reform

The US dollar opened higher in Asia and retained those gains through the European morning. The greenback has recouped most of the pre-weekend losses recorded in the wake of the indictment of a fourth former Trump Administration official by the special investigation into Russia's involvement in last year's election. However, two weekend developments seemed to blunt the impact of the guilty plea and admission of cooperation.

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FX Weekly Preview: Politics may Continue to Overshadow Economics

The new monthly cycle of high frequency economic data has begun. The manufacturing PMI shows the synchronized global recovery is continuing. The service sector and composite PMI will be reported in the week ahead. They are unlikely altering the general expectation for robust growth in Q4.

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FX Daily, December 01: Dollar Consolidates Weekly Gain, while Equities Ease to Start New Month

The release of the manufacturing PMIs confirm that the synchronized global expansion remains intact. The focus today is on three unresolved political challenges: US tax reform, the UK-Irish border and the talks that may produce another grand coalition in Germany. The US dollar is mixed, with the dollar-bloc currencies and Scandis pushing higher.

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Great Graphic: US 2-year Yield Rises Above Australia for First Time since 2000

The US and Australian two-year interest rates have diverged. There is scope for a further widening of the spread. Directionally the correlation between the exchange rate and the rate differentials is strong, but not stable. Near-term technicals are supportive but the move above trendline resistance is needed to confirm.

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FX Daily, November 30: US Dollar Comes Back Bid, but Brexit Hopes Underpin Sterling

The US dollar is broadly firmer. The rise in US yields yesterday has seen the greenback extend its recovery against the yen. It briefly pushed through JPY112.40, after dipping below JPY111.00 at the start of the week, for the first time since mid-September. Since the end of last week, been capped at the 200-day moving average against the yen, found near JPY111.70, but yesterday it pushed past. There are nearly $1 bln of options struck between...

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FX Daily, November 29: Sterling Charges Ahead on Brexit Hopes

Prospects of a deal with the EU has sent sterling to its best level in two months against the dollar. It reached $1.3430 in early European turnover. It had sunk to nearly $1.3220 yesterday as European markets were closing, which was a four-day low. It is the strongest of the major currencies today, gaining about 0.4%. With today's gains has met our retracement target near $1.3415. The momentum appears to give it potential toward $1.3500 in the...

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FX Daily, November 28: Greenback Ticks Up in Cautious Activity

The US dollar is consolidating its recent losses with a small upside bias. What promises to be an eventful week has begun with the Bank of England stress test and the publication of the Fed's Powell prepared remarks for his confirmation hearing to succeed Yellen as Chair. Unlike last year, this year's BOE stress test saw all seven banks pass.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 28/11/2017 – USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY

USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY

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FX Daily, November 27: Slow Start to Busy Week

The US dollar is narrowly mixed and is largely consolidating last week's losses as the market waits for this week's numerous events that may impact the investment climate. These include the likelihood of the US Senate vote on tax reform, preliminary eurozone November CPI, a vote of confidence (or lack thereof) in the deputy PM in Ireland, Powell's confirmation hearing as Yellen's successor, the BOE financial stability report, and stress test, and...

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FX Weekly Preview: Events + Market = Potential for Combustible Price action

There are a number of events and economic reports in the week ahead that will help shape the investment climate in the weeks and months ahead. In recognition of the importance of initial conditions, let's briefly summarize the performance of the dollar and main asset markets.

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Great Graphic: Is that a Potential Head and Shoulders Pattern in the Euro?

The euro is breaking out to the upside. The measuring objective is near $1.2150, which is near the 50% retracement of the euro's drop from the mid-2014 high. Key caveat: It is about the upper Bollinger Band and rate differentials make it the most expensive to hold since the late 1990s.

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FX Daily Rates, November 24: Euro Continues to Push Higher

The euro is edging higher to trade at its best levels since the middle of last month. It is drawing closer to the $1.1880 area, which if overcome, could point to return to the year's high seen in early September near $1.2100. There is a combination of factors lifting the euro. The recent data, including yesterday's flash PMI, suggests that the regional economy is re-accelerating here in Q4.

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German Politics: What’s Next?

Coalition talks will resume in the coming days, and failing this a minority government is more likely than new elections. The is a general agreement among the political elites, and a hubris of small differences. The rate differentials and cross currency swaps show the incentive structure for holding dollars is increasing.

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