Category Archive: FX

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

FX Daily, January 24: UK Supreme Court Requires May to Submit Bill on Brexit to Westminster Parliament

As widely expected, the UK Supreme Court ruled that Parliament approval is needed to trigger Article 50 start the divorce proceedings with the EU. The Court decided by an 8-3 majority that a bill needs to be submitted to both chambers, but that the...

UK Supreme Court Decision: Anti-Climactic?

Sterling retreats on court ruling but key supports hold and it recoups initial loss. The US dollar is recovering with the help of firming US yields. Investors are still anxious for details of new US government's tax, deregulation, and infrastructure...

FX Daily, January 23: Dollar’s Pre-Weekend Retreat Extended in Asia Before Stabilizing in Europe

The US dollar had a poor close in the North American session before the weekend as investors appear increasing anxious about the new US Administration's economic policies and priorities.With no fresh details emerging over the weekend, some stale dollar...

Weekly Speculative Position: CHF getting stronger, net shorts stable

Speculators are net short CHF with 13.7K contracts against USD. This is nearly unchanged. On the other side, the USD/CHF is falling.

FX Weekly Preview: The Challenging Week Ahead

Investors will finally be able to focus on what the new US President does rather than what he says. The UK Supreme Court decision is expected, but it may not be the driver than it may have previously seemed likely. The dollar-yen rate does not appear...

FX Weekly Review, January 16 – 21: Dollar Still Appears to Carving out a Bottom

The US dollar turned in a mixed performance over the past week. The technical indicators continue to support our expectation that after correcting since mid-December, following the Fed's hike, the dollar is basing.

Cool Video: Bloomberg’s Daybreak – Dollar Correction

I was on Bloomberg's Daybreak: Americas today. The issue at hand was about the dollar's losses since the start of the year. I suggest that the correction actually began a day or so after the Federal Reserve hiked rates in mid-December. I noted that...

FX Daily, January 20: Trump Day

The dollar peaked against the yuan two days after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates in the middle of last month. We argue that that is when the market correction began, not at the turn of the calendar. Despite claims that China's currency is...

Great Graphic: Trade and Tariffs-End of an Era?

This Great Graphic was tweeted by the Financial Time's John Authers, who got it from @fathomcomment. The green line is the inversion of global trade (right-hand scale). The blue line is a trade-weighted average global tariff rate. What the chart shows...

Draghi Lets Steam out of Euro

US reported stronger than expected series of data, including a large drop in weekly jobless claims for the week of the next NFP survey. Draghi remained dovish, with key phrases retained. Euro needs to break $1.0575 now to confirm a top is in place....

FX Daily, January 19: Dollar Gives Back Most of Yellen-Inspired Gains

While the US 10-year yield is unchanged, the dollar is consolidating its gains against the yen in a relatively narrow range of about half a big figure below JPY115.00. It has seen its gains pared more against the euro and sterling, where most of...

FX Daily, January 18: Markets Stabilize, Awaiting Fresh Cues

The US dollar has stabilized after yesterday's bruising. From a fundamental perspective, little has changed. After hard exit signals from the UK government sent sterling down from $1.2430 on January 5 and 6, to below $1.20 at the start of the week,...

Great Graphic: Is the Pound Sterling?

Sterling's 2.75% rally today is the biggest advance in more than eight years. The UK government has done a good job of managing expectations. Over the last week or so, Prime Minister May and Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond has made it clear that...

FX Daily, January 17: Trump’s Comments Send the Dollar Reeling

The Pound has been subjected to a heavy amount of pressure as we progress further into 2017, with GBP/CHF rates being one of the heaviest losers. The pairing is now trading at a similar level to GBP/USD levels below the 1.22 mark. Their is an enjoyable...

FX Daily, January 16: Hard Exit Talk Sent Sterling Below $1.20

The euro has been sold to $1.0580 in the European morning, a cent lower from the pre-weekend high. In addition to the drag from sterling, the euro appears to have been sold in response to the interview in two European papers of the next US President....

Weekly Speculative Position: CHF Net Shorts rising, but JPY net shorts falling

Speculators are net short CHF with 14K contracts against USD. This is 1K more than last week. But yen and Euro net shorts are currently diminishing. This could imply that soon CHF net shorts start falling, too.

FX Weekly Preview: Five Events that Will Drive the Capital Markets in the Week Ahead

Bank of Canada may be more upbeat following strong jobs and trade figures. China's President Xi will speak at Davos and likely defend globalization and free trade, which some think the US is abandoning. UK PM May's speech on Brexit may be blunted by...

FX Weekly Review, January 09 – 14: Dollar Correction may be Over or Nearly So

For the first week since the election of Trump, the Swiss Franc index had a clearly better performance than the dollar index. It improved by 1.5% in the last ten days.

The Difference of an A and BBB for Italy

DBRS cut Italy's rating to BBB from A. It will increase the haircut on Italy's sovereign bonds used for collateral by Italian banks. It is not a mortal blow or a significant hit, but is not helpful, except to add pressure on Italy and further reduce...

FX Daily, January 13: Corrective Forces Persist

The Supreme Court Judgement on whether parliament will have to O.K the triggering of article 50 is ongoing and when the ruling is announced expect big swings on GBP/CHF. I think the likely outcome will be that parliament will get the vote, most broad...