Category Archive: FX

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

FX Daily, February 23: Dollar Firms; VIX Set to Close Lower for Second Week

A light economic schedule in North America may help the markets close the week on a quiet note. Perhaps if there is one number that captures this sense, it may be the VIX. It is soft and barring a new disruption today, it is poised to close lower for the second consecutive week, for the first time this year. The US dollar is steady to higher today and barring a reversal, will close stronger on the week against the major currencies.

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FX Daily, February 22: All Eyes on Equities

The dramatic reversal of US shares yesterday in the last hour of trading has once again pulled the proverbial rug beneath the feet of investors. The turn down, moreover, occurred near important technical levels, seemingly adding to the significance. Global equities have followed suit.

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FX Daily, February 21: Markets Mark Time

The economic data stream is picking up, but there is an uneasy calm in the markets. It is almost as if the dramatic drop in stocks has left many with a sense of incompleteness, like waiting for another shoe to drop. The price action has not clarified the situation very much. The equity markets are stalling in front of important chart points as are yields and the dollar.

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Great Graphic: S&P 500 vs Euro Stoxx 600 and Exchange Rates

Today is an important day for equities. After a sharp sell-off earlier this month, stocks staged a recovery last week. The recovery has stalled near retracement objectives, which could be a potential turning point in the market. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 peaked on January 23 and dropped about 9% through February 9. Through yesterday, it recovered 38.2% of its decline, poking a little above 381.00.

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Cool Video: Bloomberg Interview-Rates, Dollar, and Equites

In large gatherings of people, from airplanes to theater to conferences, we are often told to know the closest exit. The same is true for investing. No matter one's confidence when they buy a security, someone is just as convinced on the other side who is selling the security. Well into this 4.5-minute interview (click here for the link) on Bloomberg's "What'd You Miss" show, Lisa Abramowicz asks the always important question. How will I know I am...

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FX Daily, February 20: Dollar Trades Higher, but Stocks Challenged at Key Chart Point

The dollar is finding better traction today, building on the upside reversal seen before the weekend. The news stream has been light and it seems like primarily an issue of positioning rather than a change in sentiment or the consensus narrative. The focus has shifted from monetary policy and idea that the ECB and BOJ are exiting their extraordinary monetary policy to return of the twin deficit problem in the US.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 20/02/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF

The USDCHF pair approached our waited target yesterday, represented by the bearish channel’s resistance that appears on the above chart, noticing that the price faces good resistance at the EMA50, which forms negative pressure that we expect to push the price to resume its main bearish track again.

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FX Daily, February 19: Monday Market Update

The US dollar is narrowly mixed in uneventful turnover. Of note, the dollar selling seen in Asia last week slacken today and the greenback moved above the pre-weekend highs seen in the US. It is the first time in eight sessions, the dollar has risen above the previous day’s high against the yen. Europe seems to be losing interest though, with the dollar near JPY106.60.

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FX Weekly Preview: Four Key Numbers in the Week Ahead

The US markets are closed on Monday, and many parts of Asia will continue to celebrate the Lunar New Year. The economic schedule is fairly light, and market psychology appears fragile after the dramatic activity in equities and what appears to be shifting macro-relationships. To help navigate the challenging investment climate, we identify four "numbers" that can illuminate the path ahead.

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FX Daily, February 16: Worst Week for the Dollar since 2015-2016, While Stocks Continue to Recover

Nearly all the major currencies have risen at least two percent against the US dollar this week. The Canadian dollar is an exception. It has risen one percent this week ahead of today's local session. Sterling is becoming another exception after disappointing retail sales. It is up just shy of two percent. The Dollar Index is off 2.3% on the week, which would be the biggest weekly loss since 2015.

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Great Graphic: Bears Very Short US 10-Year Ahead of CPI

The US reports January CPI figures tomorrow. The market seems especially sensitive to it. The main narrative is that it is an inflation scare spurred by the jump in January average hourly earnings that pushed yields higher and unhinged the stock market. This Great Graphic comes from Bloomberg and is derived from data issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

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FX Daily, February 15: Stocks Jump, Bonds Dump, and the Dollar Slumps

The significant development this week has been the recovery of equities after last week's neck-breaking drop, while yields have continued to rise. The dollar has taken is cues from the risk-on impulse from the equity market and the sales of US bonds more than the resulting higher yields. Asia followed US equities higher.

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FX Daily, February 14: Investors Remain Uneasy even as Equities Stabilize

There is an unease that continues to hang over the market. It is as if a shoe fell last week, and most investors seem to be waiting for the other shoe to drop. It is hard to imagine the kind of body blow that the equities took last week without some kind of follow through and knock-on effects. Moreover, the focus today on US CPI may prove for nought.

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Great Graphic: Stocks and Bonds

The relationship between stocks and bonds does not appear to have changed much. It is difficult to eyeball correlations. Question the meaning of a chart that has two time series and two scales and.

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FX Daily, February 13: Tuesday’s Two Developments

There are two important developments today. First, the recovery in the global equity markets is being challenged. Second, the yen has strengthened across the board, and is now at its best levels against the dollar since last September's low. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index extended Monday's recovery with another 0.5% gain. However, looking closer, the momentum faltered.

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FX Daily, February 12: Equity Markets Find Firmer Footing, Dollar Softens

The most important development today has been the stability in the equity markets after last week's meltdown. The recovery from new lows in the US before the weekend set the tone for today's moves. Tokyo markets were on holiday, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index excluding Japan snapped a seven-day slide with a nearly 0.6% gain.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 12/02/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, WTI Oil Futures, USD/CHF

The USDCHF pair trading settles below the previously broken support that appears in the image, while stochastic provides negative overlapping signal on the four hours time frame, which supports the continuation of our bearish trend expectations in the upcoming sessions, reminding you that our next target at 0.9254.

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FX Weekly Preview: Recovering from Too Much of a Good Thing?

Too much of a good thing is bad. That, in a nutshell, is an important insight that Hyman Minsky offered about the financial sector, but has broader application. The low volatility that has been a characteristic of the capital markets for the past few years spurred financial innovation to profit from it.

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FX Daily, February 09: Equity Sell-Off Extends to Asia, but More Muted in Europe

The 100-point slide in the S&P 500 and the 1000-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrials yesterday spurred more bloodletting in Asia. The 1.8% drop in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index (for a 6.7% loss for the week) may conceal the magnitude of the regional losses. At one point the CSI 300 of the large Chinese mainland shares was off more than 6% before closing off 4.3% (and 10% for the week). The H-shares index was down 3.9% and 12% for the week.

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Great Graphic: FX Vol Elevated, but Still Modest

With the substantial swings in the volatility of equities that have captured the imagination of journalists and punished investors who bought financial derivatives that profited from the low vol environment, we thought it would be helped to look at the implied volatility of the leading currencies against the US dollar. The Great Graphic looks at the three-month implied volatility for the euro (white line), the yen (yellow line), and sterling (green...

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