Category Archive: 8b.) Economic History

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Overlending and Global Imbalances in Current Accounts

Some extracts from BIS Working Papers No 419 Caveat creditor: The Bank for International Settlement stresses the importance of getting "overlending" under control.

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Why There Won’t Be A Strong Dollar, Even If The Financial Establishment Thinks So

Higher Rates, Consequences on Public Debt Japan US UK

In this second part of our series we provide arguments why the widely expected strong dollar period might not come. We look at the most important economic indicators that might justify a stronger dollar: the ISM manufacturing index and the interest rate differences between the U.S. and Europe.

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Strong Dollar: the Parallels Between Now, the 1980s and 1998-2002, Part 1: Austerity

2013-07-09

by George Dorgan

2013-07-09

Thailand South Korea Current Account Asia Crisis

We examine the relationship between strong dollar phases and austerity in other parts of the world. Between 1983 and 1985 one reason for the strong dollar were high real interest rates in the U.S. after the defeat of the Great Inflation period, the enforced austerity in Southern America and cheap commodity prices caused by generally …

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History of the Net External Position of Banks

Investment "bubbles" have been inflating and bursting for hundreds of years.

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The history of wrong forecasts by Swiss economists: details

2013-01-13

by George Dorgan

2013-01-13

Or how to talk down an economy with wrong forecasts Read the introductory post here, if you haven’t yet. Details of SECO forecasts In the following we give the details about the SECO, the Swiss government economic agency’s, forecasts. Forecast Q1/2009 Sharp recession in 2009, gradual stabilization in 2010 Bern, 17.03.2009 – Economic …

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Plot historical FX charts

Peripheral Europe is going to follow step and step the Mexican and the resulting Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s.

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SNB Monetary Policy Assessment Outlook

2012-12-12

by George Dorgan

2012-12-12

On Thursday, December 13th, 2012, at 09.30 CET, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) holds its quarterly monetary policy assessment meeting. As we explained in the “drivers of Swiss inflation” post, inflation pressures will remain subdued for the next 2-3 years, because the effects of the quick rise of the franc and weakening global growth need to …

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Order the Full Report on the S&P Critique

2012-09-25

by George Dorgan

2012-09-25

In the full report we explain in detail how one can analyze the balance sheet of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) based on several sources of information, for example the monthly bulletin, which shows the changes of the SNB balance sheet and the quarterly distribution of the SNB assets including the information about FX … Continue reading...

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How former central bankers stepped up against the central banks

Central Bankers against Central Bankers Banned Weber Stark Issing

There are already three former European central bankers who criticize more or less openly the European Central Bank (ECB).

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6c) Economic History

Swiss Franc at record highs (May 2011)

2011-05-27

by George Dorgan

2011-05-27

swiss franc versus cross currencies 2010-2011 chfusd chfjpy chfeur

May. 27th 2011 Extracts from the history of the Swiss franc (May 2011) This month, the Swiss Franc touched a record high against not one, but two currencies: the US dollar and the Euro. Having risen by more than 30% against the former and 20% against the latter, the franc might just be the world’s … Continue reading »

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EUR/CHF: One Year of Free Market (07/2010-07/2011): March 2011

2011-03-31

by George Dorgan

2011-03-31

March 2011 Swiss KOF Leading Growth Indicator 2.24 In March Up from revised 2.19 in February (initial 2.18.) Stronger than median forecast of 2.15. Bit of a surprise. EUR/CHF lower, presently at 1.2978. By Gerry Davies || March 30, 2011 at 09:39 GMT EUR/USD: Look To The Crosses For Guidance EUR/JPY has made a significant move … Continue reading...

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EUR/CHF: A History of Interventions, April 2010

2010-04-30

by George Dorgan

2010-04-30

April 2010 Quick Look At The Order Books AUD/USD: stops below .9135 and again below .9070 USD/JPY: solid bids 92.70, stops below 92.40, heavy semi-official bids expected at 91.50 ( I’m hearing of “massive” stops below 90.50 so if market gets on a roll lower keep this level in mind) EUR/USD: looks like the order … Continue reading »

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EUR/CHF: A History of Interventions, March 2010

2010-03-31

by George Dorgan

2010-03-31

, March 2010 Big Barrier Eyed In EUR/CHF Traders report a large barrier option is in play at the 1.4200 level in EUR/CHF. Nothing attracts price action like a big barrier. The owner of the option wants to protect his investment while the bank that sold the option wants to knock it out to erase … Continue reading »

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EUR/CHF A History of Interventions: October 2009

2009-10-31

by George Dorgan

2009-10-31

A market view history of the EUR/CHF from the website ForexLive October 2009 Cue The Jaws Music EUR/CHF is trading below 1.5100, presently at 1.5090, very nearly at 1.5o80 where the SNB is last said to have intervened………. More Signs Of US And Global Recovery The US GDP number was yet another sign of a global economic recovery … Continue reading...

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Recent History of the Swiss franc: May 2009

2009-05-31

by George Dorgan

2009-05-31

A market view history of the EUR/CHF from the website ForexLive May 2009 BIS And SNB Expected To Be Buying EUR/CHF On 1.50 Handle Dealers expect to see bids appearing from either the Swiss National Bank or the Bank for International Settlements if EUR/CHF dips back towards 1.5050. By Sean Lee || May 28, 2009 at 04:03 … Continue reading »

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