Category Archive: Economic Theory

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Richard Koo: If Helicopter Money Succeeds, It Will Lead To 1,500 percent Inflation

After today's uneventful Fed announcement, all eyes turn to the BOJ where many anticipate some form of "helicopter money" is about to be unveiled in Japan by the world's most experimental central bank. However, as Nomura's Richard Koo warns, central banks may get much more than they bargained for, because helicopter money "probably marks the end of the road for believers in the omnipotence of monetary policy who have continued to press for further...

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Richard Koo´s misleading take on the great recession: The final chapter – a guest post by Mark Sadowski



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Happy Xmas Lars von Trier

Dear friends and readers, Christmas is family time. But since my blog is contrarian, you read here a contrarian family post by one my idols, Lars von Trier. I just want to thank all my loyal readers and followers for following and commenting on my blog and any discussion on Twitter. Since the blog is driven by … Continue reading »

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Heterodox Economic Theories and GDP

Heterodox economic theories focus on the human desires to spend, to save, to obtain credit in order to anticipate spending and future earnings, to increase or to reduce debt or even to deplete existing savings, on human behaviour. Those theories neither think that humans are rational nor that markets are efficient.

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Michael Pettis: Abenomics is just a measure to enforce higher household savings

This article by Michael Pettis remains one of the most important contributions on Abenomics. If anybody wondered by GDP contracted in 2014. It is not only the sales tax but even more the weak yen that forces people to save more. Both companies and finally also consumers are savings more. Companies do not invest.

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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?

Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF. Evans-Pritchard spends most of his time talking about the bearish yen implications of the increased BOJ purchases, and mentions GPIF only at the very end of the his essay, and even then to dismiss...

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Rational Expectations, Lucas Critique and NAIRU



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Volckers Attack on Stagflation

In this chapter we describe how Volcker managed to defeat stagflation; he applied the monetarist models that had been applied successfully in Switzerland and Germany. Thanks to this effort, the dollar stopped its secular decline.

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The trade deficit and the collapse of manufacturing, the causes of the U.S. secular stagnation?



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Monetarist and Austrian Critique against MMT



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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances

A list of long-term sector balances and related provided by Nomura's research institute and its chief economist Richard Koo.

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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late



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Hans Werner Sinn’s Piketty Critique: r ≠ i > g

Hans Werner Sinn has formulated his critique with Piketty. Sinn says that r ≠ i > g. Interest rate are usually higher than economic growth, but not necessarily increases of wealth.

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Hans Werner Sinn’s Piketty Critique: “r ≠ i > g”

Hans Werner Sinn has formulated his critique with Piketty. Sinn says that: r ≠ i > g, hence Interest rates i are usually higher than economic growth g, but r is not the same as i. Hence r can be higher or lower than g.

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Richard Koo and Abenomics



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Chartalism and Modern Monetary Theory, MMT



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New Arthurian Economics and Martin Wolf’s “Strip banks of power to create money”



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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?

The power distance between employer and employee enforces the importance of the leader, the entrepreneur. Moreover, the collectivite Asian society does not want unemployment, employees prefer to renounce to salary hikes in favor of the collective. These cultural reasons can qualify as drivers of the Japanese balance sheet recession.

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El-Erian: The New Normal



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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999



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