Jan Skoyles

Jan Skoyles

Jan was inspired to work in the gold and silver investment markets after working with fund manager Ned Naylor-Leyland, at Cheviot Asset Management. After working with Ned in 2010 Jan wrote her dissertation on the use of precious metals in the monetary system, and graduated with first class honours from Aston University in 2011. Jan then joined The Real Asset Company, and became Head of Research in September 2012. Her thoughts and opinions on gold prices, when to buy gold, how to buy gold, and many other issues facing gold investors, are sought by a range of media including investment sites such as Kitco, GATA, Lewrockwell.com, national media outlets including the Mail on Sunday, The Telegraph, and news channels like RT.

Articles by Jan Skoyles

Welsh Gold Being Hyped Due To The Royal Wedding?

Welsh gold and the misconceptions surrounding it – GoldCore speak to China Central Television (CCTV). Welsh gold mired in misconceptions, namely that it is ‘rarest’ and most ‘sought after’ gold in world. Investors to be reminded that all mined gold is rare and homogenous. Nothing chemically different between Welsh gold and that mined elsewhere. Investors led to believe Welsh gold is more valuable, despite lack of authenticity in some Welsh gold products.

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Gold Price Increasingly Influenced By Declining Dollar Rather Than Interest Rates

Correlation between Gold and the US Dollar Real Exchange Rate, 1976 - 2018

Gold Price Gains Due To Declining Dollar Rather Than Interest Rates. Investors should not be put off by higher interest rates, World Gold Council research finds they do not always have a negative impact on gold. Only short-term movements in gold are ‘heavily influenced by US interest rates’. Correlation between US interest rates and gold is waning, with US dollar a better indicator of short-term gold price. New findings will reassure gold investors that there is no single driver of the gold price including interest rates and the myth of the “all powerful” central bank.

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London House Prices See Fastest Quarterly Fall Since 2009 Crisis

London House Price Growth, Sep 2007 - 2018

London house prices fell by 3.2% in the first quarter – Halifax. Brexit, financial and geo-political uncertainty lead to falls. Excluding sale of seven £10m-plus houses in London, prices were down 3.4% in the year. UK house prices climb by just 0.4% in April, the slowest increase since 2008 for same period. Sales transactions fall by 19% and asking versus selling prices show turning into buyers’ market. Homeowner or not, buy physical gold to hedge falls in physical property.

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Silver Bullion Remains Good Value On Positive Supply And Demand Factors

Silver Spot USD/OZ and Gold Spot USD/OZ, Jan - Apr 2018

Silver bullion remains good value on positive supply and demand factors. Industrial demand set to continue to climb from 2017, into 2018 and beyond. Speculators are bearish on silver as net short positions in silver futures reach record. Investment demand sees silver ETF holdings at eight-month high of 665.4 million ozs. 2017 saw fifth consecutive annual physical deficit in scrap silver, of 26 moz. Global silver mine production fell 4% last year, 2nd consecutive year of decline.

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Jamie Dimon Warns Of Potential ‘Market Panic’

Cartoon

Jamie Dimon Warns Of Potential ‘Market Panic’. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees ‘chance of market panic’. In annual letter to shareholders Dimon warns of increased inflation and interest rates. Concerned QE unwinding could cause chaos as ‘markets will get more volatile’.

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Silver Bullion: Should We Be Worried About Silver?

Silver Spot, 1995 - 2018

Silver Bullion: Should We Be Worried About Silver? Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone silver “set to test the $18 an ounce resistance level”. LBMA report: volume of silver ounces transferred in February fell by 24%. Standard Chartered: gold-silver ratio and supply/demand fundamentals favour silver. Gold/silver ratio at near two-year high on silver’s underperformance. Silver COT reports remain more bullish than at any time in history.

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Brexit, Stagflation Pressures UK High Street

Toys R US

Brexit, Stagflation Pressures UK High Street. UK high street and wider consumer market feeling effects of financial crisis, Brexit and inflation. 350,000 retails jobs expected to disappear between 2016 and 2020. Centre for Retail Research predicts 9,500 shops to close this year and 10,200 in 2019. UK is ‘worst performing’ European market for new car registrations – Moody’s. UK’s growth outlook is the ‘worst in the G20’ – Institute of Fiscal Studies.

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Gold Outperforms Stocks In Q1, 2018

3 Month Relative Performance

Gold Outperforms Stocks In Q1, 2018. Gold signs off Q1 2018 with best run since 2011. Gold price supported by safe haven demand, interest-rate concerns and inflation. Trade wars and concerns over equity market have sent investors towards gold. ETF holdings highest in nearly a decade. Goldman Sachs: ‘The dislocation between the gold prices and U.S. rates is here to stay’.

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“Stars Are Slowly Aligning For Gold” – Frisby

Gold Spot, Q1 2011 - 2018

“Stars Are Slowly Aligning For Gold” – Frisby. Gold ends March with a third-quarterly gain, a feat not seen since 2011. Impressive gains seen despite tightening of monetary policy from Federal Reserve. Frisby – gold is set to break through technical resistance of $1,360. Gold’s safe haven role back in focus with Trump trade wars and increasing geopolitical tensions. Now is opportune time for investors to buy gold, ahead of next quarter.

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Eurozone Faces Many Threats Including Trade Wars and “Eurozone Time-Bomb” In Italy

Euro Flag

Eurozone threatened by trade wars, Italy and major political and economic instability. Trade war holds a clear and present danger to stability and economic prospects. Italy represents major source of potential disruption for the currency union. Financial markets fail to reflect the “eurozone time-bomb” in Italy. Financial volatility concerns in Brussels & warning of ‘sharp correction’ on horizon.

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London House Prices Falling Sharply – UK’s Much Needed Wake-Up Call

U.K. House- Price Inflation, 2013 - 2018

London house prices falling at fastest pace since 2009. Values fell by 2.6% in year through January. London house prices likely to be weakest in UK over next five years. Inflated prices make London property more exposed to economic and political shocks. Worries over house prices are having a knock-on effect in wider economy. Physical gold to act as much needed hedge against falling property prices.

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Global Trade War Fears See Precious Metals Gain And Stocks Fall

Gold Silver Performance

– Market turmoil as trade war concerns deepen and Trump appoints war hawk Bolton
– Oil, gold and silver jump as ‘Russia China Hawk’ Bolton appointed
– Oil up 4%, gold up 2.2% and silver up 1.6% this week (see table)
– Stocks down sharply – Nikkei down 4.5%, S&P 4.3% & Nasdaq 5.5%
– Bolton scares jittery markets already shell-shocked by US’ tariffs against China
– Currency wars and trade wars tend to proceed actual wars
– Gold now outperforming stocks year to date

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Gold +1.8 percent, Silver +2.5 percent As Fed Increases Rates And Trade War Looms

Gold Price in USD, 15 - 22 March 2018

Gold gained 1.8% and silver 2.5% to $1,333/oz and $16.60/oz yesterday. Gold climbs as Fed increases interest rates by 0.25% – now 1.5% to 1.75% range. Dovish Fed Chair Powell plans fewer than expected rate hikes in 2018. Markets disappointed at lack of hawkish comments from new Fed Chair. Dollar LIBOR rises to highest level since November 2008 – $200 trillion worth of dollar-denominated financial products including mortgages based off LIBOR.

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Credit Concerns In U.S. Growing As LIBOR OIS Surges to 2009 High

Three-month US Dollar Libor-OIS Spread, 2009 - 2018

Key Metric LIBOR OIS Signals Major Credit Concerns. Widening of the spread between LIBOR OIS (overnight index swap) rate raises concerns. Spread jumped to 9 year widest spread, rising to 54.6bps, most since May 2009. Libor recently moved to over 2% for first time since 2008. Wider spread usually associated with heightened credit concerns.

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Hungary’s Gold Repatriation Adds To Growing Protest Against US Dollar Hegemony

Safe Picture

Hungary’s Gold Repatriation Adds To Growing Protest Against US Dollar Hegemony. Hungarian National Bank (MNB) to repatriate 100,000 ounces gold from Bank of England. Follows trend of Netherlands, Germany, Austria and Belgium each looking to bring gold back to home soil. Hungary one of the smallest gold owners amongst central banks, with just 5 tonnes. Central bank gold purchases continue to be major drivers of gold market.

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Gold Protects As Cashless Society Threatens Vulnerable

Disappearing Cash in Sweden, 1995 - 2018

Gold Protects As Cashless Society Threatens Vulnerable. Swedish authorities concerned cashless society is happening ‘too quickly’ and heading into ‘negative spiral’. Only 25% of Swedes paid in cash at least once a week in 2017, 36% never use cash. Cash usage in Sweden falling both as share of GDP and in nominal terms. Sweden may be world’s first economy to introduce a cryptocurrency, the e-krona. Cashless is not a disincentive for illegal drug trade, Guardian finds. Gold in safe jurisdictions will protect against raids on cash and wealth.

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Stock Market Selloff Showed Gold Can Reduce Portfolio Risk

Intraday Price Performance of Key Assets, 5 February

Stock Market Selloff Showed Gold Can Reduce Portfolio Risk. Recent stock market selloff showed gold can deliver returns and reduce portfolio risk. Gold’s performance during stock market selloff was consistent with historical behaviour. Gold up nearly 10% in last year but performance during recent selloff was short-lived. The stronger the market pullback, the stronger gold’s rally. WGC: ‘a good time for investors to consider including or adding gold as a strategic component to their portfolios.’.

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Women’s Pension Crisis Highlights Dangers To Savers

Pensions bomb

Women’s Pension Crisis Highlights Dangers To Savers.
– International Women’s Day highlights the underreported UK Women’s pension crisis.
– 2.66 million affected by UK government’s change to state pension act.
– Women’s pension crisis is one of many in the UK, where there is a £710bn deficit for prospective retirees.
– Changes by government highlights the counterparty risks pensions are exposed to.
– Global problem as pensions gap of developed countries growing by $28B per day.

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Gold Does Not Fear Interest Rate Hikes

Safe

Gold Does Not Fear Interest Rate Hikes. Gold no longer fears or pays attention to Fed announcements regarding interest rates. Renewed interest in gold due to inflation fears and concern Fed won’t do enough to control it. Higher interest rates on horizon will make debt levels unsustainable. New Fed Chair warns “the US is not on a sustainable fiscal path” and could lead to an “unsustainable” debt load. Higher interest rates are good for gold as seen in the 1970s and 2000s.

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London Property Sees Brave Bet By Norway As Foxtons Profits Plunge

House

London Property Sees Brave Bet By Norway As Foxtons Profits Plunge. Sales in London property market at ‘historic lows’. 65% fall in pre-tax profits in 2017 to £6.5m reported by London estate agents Foxtons. Foxtons warns 2018 will ‘remain challenging’ for London property. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is backing London’s property market. RICS: UK property stock hits record low as buyer demand falls. Own physical gold to hedge falls in physical property.

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Digital Gold Provide the Benefits Of Physical Gold?

Ripple, Bitcoin, Ethereum

Will digital gold provide the benefits of physical gold? Digital gold and crypto gold products claim to combine efficiencies of blockchain with value of gold. They are yet to provide the same benefits or safety as owning physical gold. National mints jumping in on the ‘sexy blockchain’ act. BOE declares bitcoin ‘not a currency;’ Royal Mint launches blockchain gold product.

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Bank Bail-In Risk In European Countries Seen In 5 Key Charts

NPLs and Advances of Total Loans and Advances, Q2 2017

Bank Bail-In Risk In Europe Seen In 5 Charts. Nearly €1 trillion in non-performing loans poses risks to European banks’. Greece has highest non-performing loans as a share of total credit. Italy has the biggest pile of bad debt in absolute terms. Bad debt in Italy is still “a major problem” which has to be addressed – ECB. Level of bad loans in Italy remains above that seen before the financial crisis. Deposits in banks in Greece, Cyprus, Italy, Ireland, Czech Republic and Portugal most at risk from bank bail-in.

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US-China Trade War Escalates As Further Measures Are Taken

US China

US-China Trade War Escalates As Further Measures Are Taken. Trade war between two superpowers continues to escalate. White House likely to impose steep tariffs on aluminium and steel imports on ‘national security grounds’. US may impose global tariff of at least 24% on imports of steel and 7.7% on aluminium. China “will certainly take necessary measures to protect our legitimate rights.”

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Global Debt Crisis II Cometh

Total Owed Global Credit Market Debt, 1950 - 2018

Global Debt Crisis II Cometh
– Global debt ‘area of weakness’ and could ‘induce financial panic’ – King warns
– Global debt to GDP now 40 per cent higher than it was a decade ago – BIS warn
– Global non-financial corporate debt grew by 15% to 96% of GDP in the past six years
– US mortgage rates hit highest level since May 2014
– US student loans near $1.4 trillion, 40% expected to default in next 5 years
– UK consumer debt hit £200b, highest level in 30 years, 25% of households behind on repayments

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“This Is Where They Completely Lost Their Minds” – Hussman

Valuation

“This Is Where They Completely Lost Their Minds” – Hussman. Hussman warns ‘the S&P 500 to lose approximately two-thirds of its value over the completion of this cycle’. ‘the market has lost value, even since 2009, when overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions were joined by divergent internals’. Believes the market is going to learn lessons about the crash ‘the hard way’.

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Brexit Risks Increase – London Property Market and Pound Vulnerable

Real House Price Index, 1870 - 2018

Brexit Risks Increases – London Property Market and Pound Vulnerable. Brexit uncertainty deepens as UK government in disarray. BOE warns of earlier and larger rate hikes for Brexit-hit UK. UK property prices fall second month in row, London property under pressure. No deal Brexit estimated to cost UK £80bn according to government analysis. Transition period causing major uncertainty for UK and pound. Pound expected to fall as Brexit fears remain into 2018.

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Peak Gold: Global Gold Supply Flat In 2017 As China Output Falls By 9 percent

World's Gold Mines Futures, 2015 - 2025

Peak Gold: 2017 Supply Flat As China Output Falls By 9%. China gold production falls by 9% to 420.5t in 2017. Chinese gold demand rose 4% to 953.3t in same period. China is largest producer and accounts for 15% of global gold production. China does not export gold. Increasing foreign gold acquisitions to meet demand. Global gold production flat – 3,269t in ’17 from 3,263t in ’16, smallest increase since ’08. Peak Gold is here: supply set to fall gradually while global demand remains robust.

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Crypto Currency Backlash Sees Flight From Cryptos and Bitcoin

Gold Spot and Bitcoin Price, Jan 2018

Crypto Currency Backlash Sees Flight From Cryptos and Bitcoin. Bitcoin falls from $20,000 to below $6,000 and bounces back to $8000. Top 50 crypto currencies lost over 50% of value in 24 hours. Over $60 billion wiped off entire crypto currency market in 24 hours. Markets concerned about increased regulation, manipulation & country-wide bans. ‘Growing global unease about risks virtual currencies pose to investors and financial system’.

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Shrinkflation Intensifies – Stealth Inflation As Thousands of Food Products Shrink In Size, Not Price

Gold Spot and Bitcoin Price, Jan 2018

Shrinkflation continues to take hold across UK, Ireland and US for sixth year running. Shrinkflation sees consumers gets less product, but at the same or increased price. 2,500 products have shrunk according to Office of National Statistics in UK. Reported inflation is between 1.7% and 3% but actually much higher. Shrinkflation is financial fraud, unreported inflation in stealth mode. Gold is hedging inflation and shrinkflation.

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Silver Bullion: Once and Future Money

Marcus Aurelius Denarius

Silver Bullion: Once and Future Money. “Silver is as much a monetary metal as gold” – Rickards. U.S. following footsteps of Roman Empire which collapsed due to currency debasement (must see table). Silver bullion is set to rally due to a combination of supply/demand fundamentals, geopolitical pressures creating safe haven demand, and increasing inflation expectations as confidence in central banking and fiat money erodes.

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Davos – My Personal Experience of the $100,000 Event, $60 Burgers, Massive Inequality and the Blockchain Revolution

Public

Davos elite hear warnings of complacency akin to 2007 as economic risks grow. Toxic mix of infallible belief, arrogance, megalomania and economic ignorance. Some express concern economies are vulnerable due to imbalances, trade, geo-political tensions. Soros: Trump creating ‘mafia state’ & ‘set on a course towards nuclear war’ with N Korea. Bond bear market, rising interest rates and massive $233 trillion debt are some of the many threats to global stability.

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Cyber War Coming In 2018?

WEF Global Risks

Cyber war is increasing threat – Investors are not prepared for. Third most likely global risk in 2018 is cyber war say WEF. “Scale and sophistication of attacks is going to grow”. EU, US, NATO lay down ground rules for offensive cyber war. Ireland is viable target for attackers but is ‘grossly unprepared for cyber war’. UK should expect attack that cripples infrastructure within 2 years.

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Government Shutdown Ends – Markets Ignore Looming Debt and Bond Market Threat

US Federal Debt, 1990 - 2017

Government Shutdown Ends – Markets Ignore Looming Debt and Bond Market Threat For Now. U.S. Senate pass a temporary spending plan through Feb. 8 to end shutdown. Markets shrug off both government shutdown and re-opening. Markets, government and media ignoring worsening US debt position. Gold responding positively to U.S. dysfunction, rising US Treasury yields & weaker dollar. U.S. government national debt is $20.6 trillion and increasing rapidly. ‘Bonds, like men, are in a bear market’ – Bill Gross

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The Next Great Bull Market in Gold Has Begun – Rickards

Gold Price in USD, July 2008 - October 2017

The Next Great Bull Market in Gold Has Begun – Rickards on Peak Gold And Technicals. ‘Gold is in the early stages of a sustainable long-term bull market’ Rickards. Rickards believes the next bull market in gold will be even more powerful than those of 1971–1980 and 1999–2011. This new rally could send gold $1,475 or higher by next summer thanks to Fed rate hikes. Warns of Peak Gold ‘Physical gold is in short supply. Refiners can’t get enough to meet demand.’.

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Digital Gold Flight To Physical Gold Coins and Bars

Gold and Bitcoin prices, Dec 2017 - Jan 2018

‘Digital Gold’ Bitcoin Flight To Safe Haven Physical Gold. Latest bitcoin, crypto crash causes gold coin and bar demand to surge. Bitcoin down 40% from high, Ripple down 50% and Ethereum down 30%. Ripple and ‘Digital gold’ Bitcoin fall past key psychological price levels. $300bn wiped from cryptocurrency fortunes in just 36 hours. New research says that there is ‘Price Manipulation in the Bitcoin Ecosystem’.

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Silver Prices To Surge – JP Morgan Has Acquired A “Massive Quantity of Physical Silver”

JP Morgan Silver Stocks, Apr 2011 - Jan 2018

JP Morgan continues to accumulate the biggest stockpile of physical silver in history. “JPM now holds more than 133m oz -more than was held by the Hunt Bros” – Butler. Silver hoard owned by JPM has increased from Zero ozs in 2011 to 120m ozs today. Money managers showing more optimism towards silver through record buying. “Near impossible to rule out an upside price surprise at any moment”

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London Property Crash Looms As Prices Drop To 2 1/2 Year Low

London Home Sellers 2015 - 2017

London homeowners cut property prices by another 1.4% in January. Average price for a London house dropped by £22,000 to £600,926 in 2017. Takes 78 days to sell a home on average, the highest level since 2012. London’s downtrend continues after 2017 performance as worst UK housing market. UK regional house prices begin to falter as house prices climb slows down.

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Gold Hits All-Time Highs Priced In Emerging Market Currencies

Gold Prices in Emerging Markets Currencies, 2010 - 2018

Gold Hits All-Time Highs Priced In Emerging Market Currencies. Gold at all time in eight major emerging market currencies. A stronger performance than seen when priced in USD, EUR or GBP. As world steps away from US dollar hegemony expect new gold highs in $, € and £. Gold is a hedge against currency debasement and depreciation of fiat currencies.

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World is $233 Trillion In Debt: UK Personal Debt At New Record

Total Global Debt, 2002 - 2017

The World is $233 Trillion In Debt: It’s Time to Rebalance To Gold. Record level global debt level hit $233 trillion in Q3 2017. World’s per capita debt now more than $30,000. UK personal debts climbed to the highest level since credit crunch, reaching more than £200bn. US consumer credit highest jump in 2 years by 8.8% in November to $3.83 trillion. BofE warn UK banks could incur £30bn of losses if interest rates and unemployment rise sharply.

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10 Reasons Why You Should Add To Your Gold Holdings

Gold Price and S&P 500 Index, 2000 - 2017

10 Reasons Why You Should Add To Your Gold Holdings. Gold currently undervalued. Since 2000, the gold price has beaten the S&P 500 Index. A ‘a once-in-a-decade opportunity’ as gold-to-S&P 500 ratio is at its lowest point in 10 years. Reached ‘peak gold’ as exploration budgets continue to tighten. $80 trillion sits in global equities, a ‘ticking time bomb’. Gold remains an appealing diversifier in the current environment of high valuations and uncertainties

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Palladium Prices Surge To New Record High Over $1,100 On Supply Crunch Concerns

Nymex Palladium,1990 - 2014

Palladium prices surge to new record high over $1,100/oz today. Palladium surges past record nominal price seen in 2001 after 55% surge in 2017. Best-performing precious metal and commodity of 2017 is palladium. Palladium prices top platinum prices for first time in 16 years. Strong Chinese car demand and switch from diesel to petrol cars sees demand surge. Supply crunch as six year supply deficit & 2017 deficit expected to hit 83,000 ounces

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