Econometric models are constructed with the idea that they can be substituted for authentic human action. Not surprisingly, they fail badly.
Original Article: Can Econometric Models Provide a Laboratory Setting for Economic Analysis?

Many people believe that a general increase in stock prices is an important factor in economic growth. However, this is a questionable observation.
The view that the stock market drives economic growth originates from the observation that changes in stock prices precede changes in economic data. We suggest that various economic indicators are heavily influenced by money supply, which also drives stock prices.
The price of something is the amount of money asked for per unit. When an increased money supply enters a market, more money is being paid for those goods, which means the prices of those goods have increased. Furthermore, when money is increasing in supply, it does not move instantly to all markets. Instead, it moves from one market to another with time lags. Furthermore, the time

Many economists believe that inflationary expectations cause general increases in prices. For instance, if there is a sharp increase in oil prices, people will form higher inflationary expectations that set in motion general increases in the prices of other goods and services. According to the former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, “Undoubtedly, the state of inflation expectations greatly influences actual inflation and thus the central bank’s ability to achieve price stability.”
Economists believe that if expectations could be made less responsive to various shocks, then over time this would mitigate the effects of these shocks on the momentum of the prices of goods and services. Many economic commentators think that central bank policies can bring inflationary expectations to a

Forget the other mainstream explanations for interest. Time preference explains this phenomenon and gives a true picture of why interest exists in the first place.
Original Article: Time Preference Is the Key Driver of Interest Rates

Econometric model building attempts to produce a laboratory with controlled variables. By means of mathematical and statistical methods, an economist establishes functional relationships between various economic variables.
For example, personal consumer outlays are related to personal disposable income and interest rates, while fixed capital investments are explained by the past stock of capital, interest rates, and economic activity. A group of such estimated relations constitutes an econometric model.
A comparison of the goodness of fit of the dynamic simulation versus the actual data is an important criterion in assessing the reliability of a model. (In a static simulation, the model is solved using actual lagged variables. In a dynamic simulation, the solution is obtained by employing

Many economists, including Milton Friedman, have claimed that reality is elusive and that one cannot know its true nature. Most mainstream economists also believe that data gives us the state of the economy. By inspecting numbers such as gross domestic product (GDP) or the consumer price index, only then can an economist accurately assess the state of economic conditions.
Ludwig von Mises and the Austrian School of Economics have had a different view. According to Mises, the data is a historical display and, by itself, cannot provide the facts regarding the real world. To make sense of the data, one needs to have a theory beforehand that will allow one to interpret the data, and the theory must originate from something real that cannot be refuted. A theory resting on the foundation that

The field of behavior economics downplays the role of purposeful praxeology in economics. Austrian economics does not make that error.
Original Article: Reason versus Emotion in Economics: A Praxeological Response

By popular thinking, whenever the central bank raises the growth rate of the money supply through the buying of financial assets such as Treasuries this pushes the prices of Treasuries higher and their yields lower. This is labeled as the monetary liquidity effect. This effect is inversely correlated with interest rates.
Furthermore, an increase in the money supply after a time lag strengthens economic activity and this pushes interest rates higher. Note that we have here a positive correlation between economic activity and interest rates.
After a much longer time lag, the increase in the growth rate of money supply is starting to exert an upward pressure on the prices of goods and services. Once prices begin to move higher, the inflation expectations effect emerges. Consequently, this is

The New York Federal Reserve said on Tuesday, September 5, 2023, that the estimate for the neutral rate for Q2 has eased to 0.57 percent from 0.68 percent in Q1. Analysts typically translate that rate into a real-world setting by adding the neutral rate to the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target. The current reading suggests that a federal funds rate of around 2.5 percent would represent a neutral setting. Given that the Fed’s current target rate range is between 5.25 and 5.5 percent, this suggests that the interest rate policy remains very restrictive.
Based on this, it is quite likely that the Fed will loosen its interest rate stance ahead. This view is further reinforced by the massive increase in the ratio of the federal funds rate target to the neutral rate of 9.2 in Q2 this year from

Popular economic thinking holds that consumer spending is the most important driver of the economy. Actually, demand can’t exist without something first being supplied.
Original Article: Why Must Supply Precede Demand? Understanding Economic Foundations

According to a relatively new economics field called Behavioral Economics (BE), one’s emotional state rather than reason influences their economic decisions. Vernon Smith, the BE economist who won a Nobel in economics, wrote:
People like to believe that good decision making is a consequence of the use of reason, and that any influence that the emotions might have is antithetical to good decisions. What is not appreciated by Mises and others who similarly rely on the primacy of reason in the theory of choice is the constructive role that the emotions play in human action.
Whether individuals are generally patient or impatient determines whether or not they are inclined to spend or save today, according to BE. If they are more patient, then they disposed to save more.
Furthermore, an

Much of modern neoclassical economic theory depends upon assumptions that do not reflect real world conditions. Austrian economists, however, know that realistic assumptions matter.
Original Article: Economics and the Real World

According to popular thinking, the definition of money is flexible. Sometimes the money supply could be M1 (currency and demand deposits); at other times it could be M2 (all of M1, plus savings deposits, time deposits, and money market funds) or some other M. According to popular thinking, what determines whether M1, M2, or some other M is considered the money supply is whether it is well correlated with key economic data such as the gross domestic product (GDP).
However, since the early 1980s, correlations between various definitions of money and the GDP have broken down. The reason for this breakdown, I have suggested, is the financial deregulation that made the demand for money unstable. Consequently, the usefulness of money supply as a predictor of economic activity has significantly

Keynesians claim that the source of economic growth is consumer spending. Austrians know that net savings are the key to a growing economy.
Original Article: Real Economic Growth Depends on Savings

While central banks use administered interest rates in hopes of emulating the natural rate, these efforts are always going to fail. Without free markets, there is no natural rate.

Original Article: The Central Bank Policy Interest Rate vs the Natural Rate

In the market economy, wealth generators do not produce everything for their own consumption. Part of their production is used in exchange for the produce of other producers. Hence, in the market economy, production precedes consumption.
This means that something is exchanged for something else. This also means that an increase in the production of goods and services sets in motion an increase in the demand for goods and services.
According to David Ricardo,
No man produces, but with a view to consume or sell, and he never sells, but with an intention to purchase some other commodity, which may be immediately useful to him, or which may contribute to future production. By producing, then, he necessarily becomes either the consumer of his own goods, or the purchaser and consumer of the

In the wake of bad news on inflation, the Federal Reserve is pushing up interest rates. However, a Fed-induced higher rate is not the same as an interest rate decided by the market.

Original Article: Why the Fed’s Tight Rate Stance Damages the Economy

The US consumer sentiment index, compiled by the University of Michigan, fell to 69.5 in August from 71.6 in July. A weakening consumer sentiment index is seen as indicating a potential downturn in consumer spending and the economy in general.
Most economic commentators agree that individual consumption rather than saving is the key to economic prosperity. Saving, they believe, hinders economic growth because it coincides with weakening demand for goods. In this theory, economic activity is depicted as a circular flow of money in which one individual’s spending is part of the earnings of another.
If, however, individuals become less confident about the future, they are likely to cut back on their outlays and hoard more money, thereby diminishing the earnings of some other individual, who

Economists and political elites fondly claim that economic growth is due to increased technological knowledge. That is only partly true.

Original Article: Does Technical Knowledge Always Lead to Economic Growth?

According to many commentators, the Fed’s monetary policy, which aims at price stability, is the key factor in attaining stable economic growth. They claim that what prevents the attainment of price stability are fluctuations in the federal funds rate relative to the neutral interest rate, also known as the natural interest rate. Under this view, since the natural interest rate is consistent with stable prices and a balanced economy, Fed policymakers should steer the federal funds rate toward it.
This theory has its origins in the writings of British economist Henry Thornton (1760–1815) and was further articulated by Swedish economist Knut Wicksell in the late nineteenth century.
Knut Wicksell’s Theory of Price Stability
The heart of Wicksell’s theory is the natural interest rate, which he

On August 16, 2023, the Federal Reserve expressed concern about the pace of inflation, saying future rate hikes could be necessary if conditions do not change. Currently, the federal funds target rate is between 5.25 and 5.50 percent, the highest level in more than twenty-two years.
Mainstream economists and journalists think about inflation in terms of consumer prices. To counter a general increase in prices, they believe, the central bank should raise interest rates, which supposedly weakens the demand for goods and services and slows the growth rate of the Consumer Price Index.
But is inflation, at its core, really about the prices of goods and services? Examining the origin of inflation is an essential first step toward answering this question.
The Essence of Inflation
Inflation may be

While many economists claim that high overall debt levels can lead to economic recessions, irresponsible government spending and money expansion are the real culprits.

Original Article: "Easy Money Is a Much Bigger Economic Problem than Debt"

Many economists believe that technical knowledge is the key to economic growth. If this is the case, why do third world economies continue to experience poverty, since these economies can access the same technical knowledge as the developed world? Therefore, technical knowledge being the key to economic growth is not the case as economic growth depends upon the pool of consumer goods.
Pooling Consumption Goods
To maintain life and well-being, man must have at his disposal an adequate amount of final consumer goods. These goods, however, are not readily available—they have to be extracted from nature. Without tools at his disposal, man can only secure from nature the minimum goods for his survival.
The current state of available goods determines the creation of labor-enhancing tools. If the

Too many economic commentators claim that monopolies are the cause of inflation. Austrian economic analysis shows that this is impossible.

Original Article: "Do Monopolies Cause Inflation?"

In contrast to the imaginary way that mainstream economists present value, Austrian economists properly use ordinal rankings to determine value.

Original Article: "How People Determine the Value of a Good"

Many economic commentators view debt as a major risk factor as far as economic health is concerned. This way of thinking has its origins in the writings of Irving Fisher. According to Fisher, the high level of debt runs the risk of setting in motion deflation and, in turn, a severe economic slump. According to Fisher, the high level of debt sets in motion the following sequence of events.
Stage 1: The debt liquidation process is set in motion because of random shocks; for instance, a sudden, large fall in the stock market. The act of debt liquidation forces individuals into the distressed selling of assets.
Stage 2: Because of the debt liquidation, the money stock starts shrinking and this, in turn, slows down the velocity of money.
Stage 3: A fall in the money stock leads to a decline in

The yearly growth rate of the consumer price index jumped from 5.4 percent in June 2021 to 9.1 percent in June 2022. Some economists attributed this increase to monopolies. According to Business Insider, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston have claimed that monopolies help keep the prices of goods and services high.
Most economists believe that monopolies make markets less efficient by influencing the prices and the quantity of products. Efficiencies emerge because monopolies deviate from the ideal state of the market as depicted by the “perfect competition” framework.
The “Perfect Competition” Framework
In the world of perfect competition, a market has the following features:
There are many buyers and sellers in the market.Goods are homogeneous.Buyers and sellers are

Why do individuals pay higher prices for some goods than others? The common reply references laws of supply and demand, but what are these laws? The answer is found in the law of diminishing marginal utility.
Most economists explain this law by describing the satisfaction one derives from consuming a good such as an ice cream cone. The satisfaction derived from consuming a second cone might be less than the satisfaction derived from the first cone, and so on. Mainstream economics concludes that the more of any good we consume in each period, the less satisfaction, or utility, we derive out of each additional unit, so the price that one is willing to pay per unit also declines.
By quantifying utility, economists can introduce mathematics here to determine the additional satisfaction to

Keynesian economists believe that recessions occur because of a weakening in aggregate demand, so boosting demand will end the downturn. Whenever an economy shows signs of weakness, most experts believe that increasing aggregate demand will prevent the economy from sliding into a recession. Since private spending is declining, Keynesians say the government should counterbalance this decline by increasing government spending on goods and services.
Demand is constrained by the ability to produce goods. The more goods that an individual can produce, the more goods he can acquire. The same can be said for the economy at large because what drives an economy is not demand but rather the production of goods and services.
Producers, not consumers, are the engine of economic growth. Obviously, a

To explain Japan’s economic problems, Paul Krugman employed a model that assumes people are identical and live forever. While admitting that the model is not realistic, Krugman nonetheless argued that his model could still offer solutions to the crisis.
In The Philosophical Origins of Austrian Economics, David Gordon wrote that Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk believed economic concepts must originate from reality and should be traced to their ultimate source. If one cannot trace them to their source, the concepts are meaningless.
Similarly, Ayn Rand suggested that concept formations are not arbitrary. The role of concepts is to integrate relevant existents, while the role of definitions is to identify the essence of the existents of a concept. According to Rand:
A definition is a statement that

Many economists believe that economics must emulate the physical sciences with controlled experiments to be credible. Econometric models, they claim, can fulfill the role of laboratory experiments.
Through mathematical and statistical methods, an economist supposedly establishes relationships between various economic variables. For example, personal consumer outlays are related to personal disposable income and the interest rates, while capital expenditure is explained by the past stock of capital, the interest rates, and economic activity. Various estimated relations—i.e., equations, which are grouped together—constitute an econometric model.
A comparison of the model’s dynamic assumptions versus the data establishes the model’s reliability. (In a static simulation, the model is solved

According to some commentators, the US banking crises is over, or at least can be easily managed by the Federal Reserve System. In addition, the Fed chairman has vouched for the health of the US banking sector.
However, the banking crisis is likely in its early stages. What has started as the collapse of regional banks is likely to spread to national banks. The key reason for that is the decline in the pool of savings and continuation of fractional reserve lending in which banks are legally permitted to use money placed with them in demand deposits in lending activities. Banks treat deposits as though they were loaned to them.
Although permitted by law, from an economic point of view, this results in money creation leading to consumption not supported by production, diluting the pool of

Can the injection of new money into the economic system enhance economic growth? Not really. Increasing (or decreasing) the money supply affects the demand for money but doesn’t make us wealthier.

Original Article: "Understanding Relationships between Money Supply and Liquidity"

Monetarists believe there is an optimum growth rate of money. However, a fiat money system itself is unstable, so there is no optimum growth rate.

Original Article: "Is There an Optimum Growth Rate of Money?"

The most popular measure of economic growth is GDP. However, GDP movement is driven by changes in the money supply, not real economic factors.

Original Article: "Does GDP Present an Accurate Picture of the Economy? Not Likely"

In a market economy, money is the medium of exchange; producers exchange their goods for money and then exchange that money for other goods. As the production of goods increases, the demand for money expands. Conversely, as economic activity slows down, the demand for money follows suit.
Price changes also affect the demand for money. An increase in the prices of goods and assets increases the demand for money, since people now demand more money to purchase goods that are more expensive. Conversely, a fall in goods prices results in less demand for money.
According to Ludwig von Mises in his book Human Action:
The services money renders are conditioned by the height of its purchasing power. Nobody wants to have in his cash holding a definite number of pieces of money or a definite weight

A central tenet of Keynesian economics is that governments must run budget deficits to stimulate economic growth. But government spending actually shrinks the economy.

Original Article: "Government Budget Deficits Cannot Stimulate True Economic Growth"

It is widely held that a growing economy requires a growing money stock because economic growth increases demand for money. Many economists also believe that failing to accommodate the increase in the demand for money leads to a decline in consumer prices. This could destabilize the economy and produce an economic recession or even a depression.
Some economists who follow Milton Friedman—also known as monetarists—want the central bank to target the money supply growth rate to a fixed percentage. They hold that if this percentage is maintained over a prolonged period, it will create economic stability.
The idea that money must grow to support economic growth implies that money sustains economic activity. However, money’s main job is to be a medium of exchange, not sustain economic activity.

To understand the economy, most financial experts and commentators rely upon gross domestic product (GDP). The GDP framework looks at the value of final goods and services produced during a particular time interval, usually a quarter or a year.
This statistic is constructed with the view that consumption, not wealth production, drives an economy. Since consumer outlays are the largest part of the overall demand, it is assumed that consumer demand drives economic growth, a fundamental assumption in Keynesian economics.
The belief is that demand for goods gives rise almost immediately to their supply. This framework, however, ignores the stages of production that precede the emergence of the final good. It is not enough to demand goods; there must be the means to accommodate the demand. Real

Keynesian economists say that during an economic slump, the government must run large budget deficits in order to keep the economy going. In contrast, Austrian economists maintain that increased budget deficits are usually monetized, leading to general price increases. Therefore, from this perspective, the government should avoid increasing budget deficits and instead balance the budget.
Government Spending Takes Resources from Wealth Generators
Governments do not generate wealth, as government spending uses resources that must be taken from people who generate wealth. This, in turn, undermines the wealth-generating process of the economy. This means that the effective level of tax is the size of the government.
For instance, if the government plans to spend $3 trillion and collects $2

Keynesian economists claim that cutting costs in a business slowdown is counterproductive. As usual, the Keynesians have it backward.

Original Article: "Does Cost Cutting Undermine Economic Growth?"
This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon.

Keynesian economists claim that cost cutting by companies in order to protect profits can lead to an economic slump. They believe that if everyone tries to cut costs, demand from retrenched workers for goods and services weakens, and as a result corporate revenues and profits come under pressure. This necessitates new layoffs, and the downward spiral accelerates.
Popular thinking presents economic activity as a circular flow of money: spending by one individual becomes part of the earnings of another individual, and spending by this other individual becomes part of the first individual’s earnings. The idea is that recessions occur because consumers—for unknown reasons—cut expenditures and increase savings.
To Be Successful, Businesses Must Abide by Consumer Demand
But successful businesses

Keynesians and fellow travelers hold the Phillips curve to be sacrosanct. But because the Phillips curve cannot establish causality, it is useless as economic theory.

Original Article: "The Phillips Curve Is an Economic Fable"
This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon.

Keynesians and other economists believe the central bank can influence economic growth via monetary policy but that it may bring inflation. Thus, if the goal is faster economic growth and lower unemployment, then the economy may pay the price with a higher inflation rate. There is supposedly a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment, described by the Phillips curve: the lower the unemployment rate, the higher the rate of inflation; conversely, higher unemployment rates come with less inflation.
Some commentators maintain that once the unemployment rate falls below what’s known as the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), it sets off an inflationary spiral. This acceleration in the inflation rate takes place through increases in the demand for goods and services,

At the heart of Keynesian business cycle theory is the so-called liquidity trap. Contra Keynes, however, economies don’t falter because a sudden increase in the demand for money.

Original Article: "Forget the Liquidity Trap—Loose Monetary Policies Cause Recessions"
This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon.

Advocates of Keynesian economics believe the Federal Reserve should pursue policies that will prevent the possible decline of the economy into a liquidity trap. But what is a liquidity trap?
Economic activity often is presented in terms of a circular flow of money. Spending by one individual becomes part of the earnings of another individual, and spending by another individual becomes part of the first individual’s earnings. Recessions, by this thinking, occur because consumers—for whatever reason—have decided to cut spending and increase their savings.
For instance, if people become less confident about the future, they are likely going to lower their outlays and hoard money. Therefore, if an individual spends less, this is going to worsen the situation of some other individual, who in

According to popular thinking, the government’s definition of money is of a flexible nature. Sometimes it could be M1, and at other times it could be M2 or some other M money supply. M1 includes currency and demand deposits. M2 includes all of M1, plus savings deposits, time deposits, and money market funds.

The heart of economic growth is an expanding subsistence fund, or the pool of real savings. This pool, which is composed of final consumer goods, sustains individuals in the various stages of the production process. The increase in the pool of real savings permits the expansion and the enhancement of the infrastructure, and this strengthens economic growth.

Keynesians believe that economic growth can occur only with an expanding supply of money. Growth doesn’t need more money; it needs more savings.

Original Article: "Economic Growth Requires Savings, Not Money Pumping"
This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon.

A relatively new area of study in economics, behavioral economics, has started to gain popularity. The behavioral economics framework emerged because of dissatisfaction with the neoclassical theory regarding consumer choice. A major problem with the neoclassical theory is that human beings are presented as if hardwired with a scale of preferences. Regardless of circumstances, this scale is considered to remain the same at all times.
Mainstream economics argues that, if preferences are constant, it is possible to compress preferences into a mathematical formulation called a utility function. Similarly, the assumption of constancy is considered an important characteristic of rationality.
According to behavioral economics, however, human beings are not considered rational actors. behavioral

The U.S. personal savings rate eased in September to 3.1 percent from 3.4 percent in August. In September 2021 the savings rate stood at 7.9 percent. By popular thinking, a decline in the savings rate during an economic slowdown is regarded as supporting economic activity.

The yearly growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 7.7 percent in October from 8.2 percent in September. Note that in October 2021 the yearly growth rate stood at 6.2 percent. Some experts are of the view that it is quite likely that the momentum of the CPI might have peaked.

According to the Austrian business cycle theory, the boom-bust cycle emerges in response to a deviation in the market interest rate from the natural interest rate, or the equilibrium interest rate. As a rule, it is held, the tampering with market interest rates by the central bank sets the boom-bust cycle in motion.

Most economists believe that a general decline in the prices of goods and services is bad news because it is associated with major economic slumps such as the Great Depression. In July 1932, the yearly growth rate of US industrial production stood at –31 percent whilst in September 1932 the yearly growth rate of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at –10.7 percent.

It is not possible to establish the conditions of the economy by just inspecting the data as a whole, according to many economists. What is required, instead, is to break the data into its key components, which supposedly will enable economists to identify the true state of the economy.

For many commentators, a change in the shape of the differential between the long-term interest rate and the short-term interest rate—i.e., the yield spread provides an indication of the likely direction of the economy in the months ahead. Thus, an increase in the yield spread raises the likelihood of a possible strengthening in economic activity in the months to come.

It is commonly held that prices of goods and services can produced by means of supply and demand curves. These curves describe the relationship between the prices and the quantity of goods supplied and demanded. Within the framework of supply-demand curves, an increase in the price of a good is associated with a fall in the quantity demanded and an increase in the quantity supplied.

Popular thinking says that banks are the key factor in the expansion of credit. However, is this really the case? For example, take a farmer Joe that produces two kilograms of potatoes. For his own consumption, he requires one kilogram, and lends the rest for one year to a farmer Bob. The unconsumed one kilogram of potatoes that he agrees to lend is his savings.

Many mainstream economists believe that economic stability refers to an absence of excessive fluctuations in the overall economy. An economy with constant output growth and low and stable price inflation is likely to be regarded as stable, while an economy with frequent boom-bust cycles and variable price inflation would be seen as unstable.

Most commentators believe a growing economy requires a growing money stock because economic growth gives rise to a greater demand for money, which then must be accommodated. Failing to do so will lead to a decline in prices of goods and services which, in turn, destabilizes the economy and leads to a recession or, even worse, depression.

Instability in financial markets has brought back the ideas of post-Keynesian school of economics (PK) economist Hyman Minsky. Minsky held that the capitalist economy inherently is unstable, culminating in severe economic crisis, accumulation of debt being the key mechanism pushing the economy toward a crisis.

Speaking at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on August 26, 2022, the chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said the Fed must continue to raise interest rates—and keep them elevated for a while—to bring the fastest inflation in decades back under control.

Most economic commentators believe that historical data is the key in assessing the state of the economy. Thus, if a statistic such as real gross domestic product or industrial production displays a visible increase, then the economy is stronger. Conversely, a decline in the growth rate says the economy is weakening.

Some experts hold that the key to economic growth is to strengthen the labor market, which is based on the view that because of the reduction in the number of unemployed workers, more individuals can afford to increase spending. As a result, economic growth follows suit.

According to Federal Reserve minutes from last month, Fed officials expressed a willingness to push ahead with a tight interest rate stance to eradicate the inflationary menace. For most commentators, inflation is seen as a general increase in the prices of goods and services, so raising interest rates will soften the increase in prices.

A decline in the yearly growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 8.5 percent in July from 9.1 percent in June has prompted many commentators to suggest that inflation has likely peaked. If this assessment is valid then it is held Fed policy makers are unlikely to push for an aggressive interest rate tightening in the months ahead.

According to many economic commentators, an effective way to generate economic growth is through the lowering of taxes. The lowering of taxes, it is held, will place more money in consumers’ pockets, thereby setting in motion an economic growth.

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the institution that dates the peaks and troughs of the business cycles: A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP [gross domestic product], real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.

In the July 26 Financial Times article entitled “Is the Dollar about to Take a Turn?,” Barry Eichengreen writes that the US dollar has had a spectacular run, having risen more than 10 percent against other major currencies since the start of the year. According to Eichengreen, the key reason behind the spectacular strengthening in the US Dollar is that the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates faster than other big central banks, drawing capital flows toward the US.

According to the New York Times (NYT) article July 17, 2022, “The pioneering economist says our obsession with growth must end,” a major threat to our living standard is the obsession with economic growth. Herman Daly—an economist that has been exploring for more than fifty years the relationship between economic growth and individuals’ living standards—is of the view that the pursuit of economic growth causing ecological harm.

Most economists see GDP as a snapshot of the performance of the economy. However, it is better understood as a misleading statistic which fails to accurately describe what really is happening economically.

By popular thinking, the key driver of economic growth is the increase in total demand for goods and services. It is also held that overall output increases by a multiple of the increase in expenditure by government, consumers and businesses.

The GDP (gross domestic product) statistic portrays a view that the key driving factor of economic growth is not the production of wealth but rather its consumption. Instead, it is a calculation of the value of final goods and services produced during a particular time interval, usually a quarter or a year.

In the recent Wall Street Journal article “Inflation Surge Earns Monetarism Another Look,” Greg Ip writes that a recent surge in inflation is not likely to bring authorities to reembrace monetarism. According to Ip, money supply had a poor record of predicting US inflation because of conceptual and definitional problems that haven’t gone away.

In his June 21 New York Times article “Is the Era of Cheap Money Over?,” Paul Krugman argues against the view that the Fed has kept interest rates artificially low for the past ten to twenty years.

Currently the world is on a fiat money standard—a government-issued currency that is not backed by a commodity such as gold. The fiat standard is the primary cause behind the present economic instability, and is tempted to suggest that a gold standard would reduce instability. The majority of experts however, oppose this idea on the ground that the gold standard is in fact a factor of instability.

According to the June 1, 2022, Financial Times, Janet Yellen, the US Treasury secretary conceded she was wrong last year about the path inflation would take.

The occurrence of stagflation is associated with a situation of general strengthening in the momentum of prices while at the same time the pace of economic activity is declining. A famous stagflation episode occurred during the 1974û75 period, as year-on-year industrial production fell by nearly 13 percent in March 1975 while the yearly growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped to around 12 percent.

The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed, the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. 

Many economists believe that during an economic slump government should run large budget deficits in order to keep the economy going with increases in government outlays, with the consequent budget deficit giving individuals more disposable money.

For most economists and politicians, the role of central bank authorities is to make the economy as stable as possible. What do they mean by economic stability? Economic stability refers to an absence of excessive fluctuation, so an economy with constant output growth and low and stable price inflation is likely to be regarded as stable.

On April 19, 2022, at the Economic Club in New York, the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank president Charles Evans said the Fed is likely to lift by year end its federal funds rate target range close to the neutral range of between 2.25 to 2.50 percent. Furthermore, on April 21, 2022, Fed chairman Jerome Powell corroborated this by stating that the Fed wants to raise its benchmark rate to the neutral level.

For most experts, deflation is bad news since it generates expectations for a continued decline in prices, leading consumers to postpone the purchases of present goods, since they expect to purchase them at lower prices in the future. Consequently, this weakens the overall flow of current spending and this, in turn, weakens the economy.

The conventional view among mainstream economists, as presented by Milton Friedman, is that three factors determine market interest rates: liquidity, economic activity, and inflationary expectations. In this viewpoint, whenever the central bank raises the growth rate in the money supply by buying financial assets such as Treasurys, this pushes the prices of Treasurys higher and their yields lower.

At the end of March this year the difference between the yield on the ten-year Treasury bond and the yield on the two-year Treasury bond fell to 0.010 percent from 1.582 percent at the end of March 2021.

In the New York Times article “How High Inflation Will Come Down,” Paul Krugman suggests that the key for future inflation is inflation expectations. Krugman does not think that currently inflation expectations are comparable to the 1980s.

Most people believe lending is associated with money. But there is more to lending. A lender lends savings to a borrower as opposed to "just money." Let us explain. Take a farmer, Joe, who has produced two kilograms of potatoes. For his own consumption, he requires one kilogram, and the rest he agrees to lend for one year to another farmer, Bob. The unconsumed kilogram of potatoes that he agrees to lend is his savings. 

According to the popular way of thinking, our knowledge of the economy is elusive. Consequently, the best that we can do is to attempt to ascertain some facts of economic reality by applying various statistical methods to the so-called macro data.

In the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA), savings are established as the difference between disposable money income and monetary outlays. Disposable income is defined as the summation of all personal money income less tax payments to the government. Personal income includes wages and salaries, transfer payments, income from interest and dividends, and rental income.
The NIPA framework is based on the Keynesian view that spending by one individual becomes part of the income of another individual. The spending of the purchaser is the income of the seller. From this, it follows that spending equals income.
So if people maintain their spending, this keeps overall income coming in. Now, an increase in the supply of money affects the total amount of money spent. Consequently, the

Recently, a relatively new economics called behavioral economics (BE) has started to gain popularity. Its practitioners, such as Daniel Kahneman, Vernon Smith, and Richard Thaler, were awarded Nobel Prizes for their contribution in the field of BE.

Some commentators attribute the latest sharp increase in the Consumer Price Index to businesses pushing prices of goods higher in order to secure higher profits. (See the New York Times article “Democrats Blast Corporate Profits as Inflation Surges,” January 3, 2022). Note that the yearly growth rate of the Consumer Price Index jumped to 6.8 percent in November 2021 from 1.2 percent the year before.

Most experts tend to assess the strength of an economy in terms of real gross domestic product (GDP). The GDP framework looks at the value of final goods and services produced during a particular time interval, usually a quarter or a year. The GDP is formed as the summation of consumer outlays on goods and services; outlays by businesses on plants, machinery, and inventories; outlays by government; and exports less imports.

The price of the euro in terms of the US dollar closed at 1.135 in November, against 1.156 in October and 1.193 in November last year. The yearly growth rate of the price of the euro in US dollar terms fell to –4.8 percent in November from –0.7 percent in October. Some commentators are of the view that the US dollar is likely to weaken against the euro (i.e., the price of the euro in US dollar terms is likely to increase).

According to the popular narrative, the role of the central bank is to navigate the economy along the so-called path of economic stability. By this way of thinking if various shocks cause the economy to deviate from this path, then it is the role of central bank policy makers to offset these shocks.

Contrary to popular thinking, there is no such thing as a price level that should be stabilized by the central bank in order to promote economic prosperity.

Many economic commentators are in favor of phasing out cash. They are of the view that cash provides support to the shadow economy and permits tax evasion. It is also held that in times of economic shocks that push the economy into a recession the rising demand for cash exacerbates the downturn—it becomes a factor of instability.

One of the mandates of the Federal Reserve System is to attain price stability. It is held that price stability is the key as far as economic stability is concerned. What is it all about?

Writing in the Investment Monitor on March 18, 2021, Klaus Schwab, the founder of the World Economic Forum, was urging the replacement of the present economic system. According to Schwab, the present system is deficient, since it only benefits a small minority of the population while leaving all the others at a visible disadvantage.

Most commentators label increases in the prices of goods and services over a period of time as inflation. Ludwig von Mises however, held that the popular definition of inflation is erroneous.

It is not possible to replace productive credit by means of the easy monetary policies of the central bank. If this could have been done, then the world would have already ended poverty.

Original Article: "’Idle Resources’ Are Problems Caused by the Central Bank"
This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Michael Stack.

Why do individuals desire to have money, which cannot be consumed and produces nothing? To provide an answer to this one must go back in time to establish how money emerged.

Original Article: "Why Does Money Have Value? Not Because the Government Says It Does."
This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Michael Stack.

Warum hat der Geldschein in unserer Tasche einen Wert? Einigen Kommentatoren zufolge hat Geld einen Wert, weil die Regierung, die an der Macht ist, dies sagt. Für andere ist der Wert des Geldes auf die gesellschaftliche Konvention zurückzuführen. Dies bedeutet, dass Geld einen Wert hat, weil es akzeptiert wird, und warum wird es akzeptiert?

Why does the dollar bill in our pockets have value? According to some commentators, money has value because the government in power says so. For other commentators the value of money is on account of social convention. What this implies is that money has value because it is accepted, and why is it accepted?

Most economists are of the view that through the inspection of economic data it is possible to identify early warning signs regarding boom bust cycles. What is the rationale behind this way of thinking?

“The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.”

Most commentators’ regard savings as harmful to economic growth on the ground that savings are associated with fewer outlays. These commentators portray economic activity as a circular flow of money. Spending by one individual becomes part of the earnings of another individual, and spending by another individual becomes part of the first individual’s earnings.

According to a popular way of thinking, the central bank can influence the rate of economic expansion by means of monetary policy. It is also held that this influence carries a price, which manifests itself in terms of inflation.

Monetary inflation is just a type of embezzlement. Historically, inflation originated when a country’s ruler such as king would force his citizens to give him all their gold coins under the pretext that a new gold coin was going to replace the old one. In the process of minting new coins, the king would lower the amount of gold contained in each coin and return lighter gold coins to citizens.

It is widely held that the central bank is a key factor in the determination of interest rates. By popular thinking, the Fed influences the short-term interest rates by influencing monetary liquidity in the markets. Through the injection of liquidity, the Fed pushes short-term interest rates lower. Conversely, by withdrawing liquidity, the Fed exerts an upward pressure on the short-term interest rates.

The increase in the growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has fueled concerns that if the rising trend were to continue the Fed is likely to tighten its interest rate stance. Observe that the yearly growth rate in the CPI climbed to 4.2 percent in April from 2.6 percent in March and 0.3 percent in April 2020.

It is only through the increase in capital goods, i.e., through the enhancement and the expansion of the infrastructure, that labor can become more productive and earn a higher hourly wage. 

Most economists hold that a growing economy requires a growing money stock on the grounds that growth gives rise to a greater demand for money that must be accommodated. Failing to do so, it is maintained, will lead to a decline in the prices of goods and services, which in turn will destabilize the economy and lead to an economic recession or, even worse, depression.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]For most experts a key factor that policymakers should be watching is the ratio between actual real output and potential real output. The potential output is the maximum output that the economy could attain if all resources are used efficiently. In Q3 2020, the US real GDP–to–potential US real GDP ratio stood at 0.965 against 1.01 in Q3 2019.

In his writings, Milton Friedman blamed central bank policies for causing the Great Depression. According to Friedman, the Federal Reserve failed to pump enough reserves into the banking system to prevent a collapse in the money stock.1 The adjusted money supply (AMS), which stood at $26.6 billion in March 1930, had fallen to $20.5 billion by April 1933—a decline of 22.9 percent.

An individual’s demand is constrained by his production of goods. The more goods an individual produces, the more of other goods he can secure for himself.

Understood properly,  inflation is not a general increase in prices but is an increase in the money supply "out of thin air" which brings about the impoverishment of wealth generators. When inflation is seen as a general increase in prices, then anything that contributes to price increases is called inflationary.

Following the ideas of John Maynard Keynes and Milton Friedman, many commentators associate economic growth with increases in the demand for goods and services. Both Keynes and Friedman held that the Great Depression of the 1930s was due to an insufficiency of aggregate demand and that thus the way to fix the problem was to boost aggregate demand.

In the New York Times on September 8, 2020, Paul Krugman wrote that. The CARES Act, enacted in March, gave the unemployed an extra $600 a week in benefits. This supplement played a crucial role in limiting extreme hardship; poverty may even have gone down.

In July this year the US trade balance stood at a deficit of $63.6 billion against a deficit of $51 billion in July last year. Some commentators regard a widening in the trade deficit as an ominous sign for the exchange rate of the US dollar against major currencies in the times ahead.

The US Fed is considering lifting its inflation target above 2 percent in order to revive the economy. Contrary to the accepted practice, the Fed is not expected to raise an alarm if the measured price inflation begins to rise.

In the natural sciences, a laboratory experiment can isolate various elements and their movements. There is no equivalent in the discipline of economics. The employment of econometrics and econometric model building is an attempt to create a laboratory where controlled experiments can be conducted.

As a result of the coronavirus pandemic, most experts are of the view that it is the role of the government and central bank to minimize the damage inflicted by the virus—and the policy response to it—on the economy.

According to popular thinking, not every increase in the supply of money will have an effect on the production of goods. For instance, if an increase in the supply is matched by a corresponding increase in the demand for money, then there will be no effect on the economy.

Most economists hold that a growing economy requires a growing money stock on grounds that growth gives rise to a greater demand for money that must be accommodated. Failing to do so, it is maintained, will lead to a decline in the prices of goods and services, which in turn will destabilize the economy and lead to an economic recession, or even worse, depression.

The US personal savings rate jumped to 33 percent in April from 12.7 percent in March and 8 percent in April last year. An increase in savings is regarded by popular economics as less expenditure on consumption. Since consumption expenditure is considered as the main driving force of the economy, obviously a rebound in savings, which implies less consumption, cannot be good for economic activity, so it is held. Saving and wealth—what is the relation?

It is a common belief that sound economics must be based on facts and not on theoretical reasoning as such. Some commentators are dismissive of economic analysis that is not derived from the true data, since it is not describing the facts of reality as depicted by historical data. The use of the free market economy framework, without the central bank and government intervention and with businesses as a foundation to derive valid conclusions, is dismissed as nonsensical.

Inflation is typically defined as a general increase in the prices of goods and services—described by changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or other price indexes. If inflation is a general rise in measured prices, then why is it regarded as bad news? What kind of damage can it inflict? Mainstream economists maintain that inflation causes speculative buying, which generates waste.

The yearly growth rate of the US consumer price index (CPI) fell to 0.4 percent in April from 2 percent in April last year while the annual growth of the producer price index (PPI) plunged to –1.2 percent last month against 2.4 percent in April 2019.

What typifies the phenomenon of the boom-bust cycle is that it is recurrent. What is the reason for this? Loose monetary policies set the platform for various activities that would not emerge without the easy monetary stance. What loose monetary policy does here is to engineer the transfer of real savings from wealth generating activities to artificially stimulated activities, which we can label as bubble activities.

According to a popular way of thinking, monopolies undermine the efficient functioning of the market economy by being able to influence the prices and the quantity of products. Consequently, this undermines the well-being of individuals in the economy. By this way of thinking, the inefficiency emerges because of the deviation from the ideal state of the market as depicted by the “perfect competition” framework.

In response to the coronavirus, central banks worldwide are currently pumping massive amounts of money. This pumping, it is held, is going to arrest the negative economic side effects that the virus-related panic inflicts on economies. As appealing as it sounds we suggest that this view is erroneous.

In the midst of the emerging economic chaos triggered by the COVID-19 coronavirus, individuals are seeking answers from governments as to how to prevent the emerging economic disaster.
Most economic experts are sympathetic to this and are urging the authorities to push massive injections of money. Thus in the US the central bank has embarked on a $2 trillion stimulus.

It is widely held that financial asset prices fully reflect all available and relevant information, and that adjustments to new information is virtually instantaneous. This way of thinking which is known as the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is closely linked with the modern portfolio theory (MPT), which postulates that market participants are at least as good at price forecasting as any model that a financial market scholar can come up with, given the available information.

Economic fluctuations, also known as business cycles, are seen as being driven by mysterious forces that are difficult to identify. Finn Kydland and Edward C. Prescott (KP), the 2004 Nobel laureates in economics, decided to attempt to find out what these forces were.1 They hypothesized that technology shocks are a major factor behind economic fluctuations and demonstrated that a technology-induced shock can explain 70 percent of the fluctuations in the postwar US data.

According to the Financial Times’s February 20 article “Why Sweden Ditched Its Negative Rate Experiment,” economists are pondering whether Sweden’s central bank experiment with negative interest rate was a success. Sweden’s Riksbank, the world’s oldest central bank, introduced negative interest rates in early 2015.

According to the US Labor Department, worker productivity in the non-farm sector increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 after declining by 0.2 percent in the previous quarter. For the year, productivity increased 1.7 percent, up from 1.3 percent in both 2017 and 2018. It was the best annual showing since the 3.4 percent increase in 2010.

In December 2019, the US trade account balance stood at a deficit of $48.9 billion, against a deficit of $43.7 billion in November and $60.8 billion in December 2018.
Most commentators consider the trade account balance the single most important piece of information about the health of the economy. According to the widely accepted view, a surplus on the trade account is considered a positive development while a deficit is perceived negatively. What is the reason for this?

Whenever there are signs that the economy is likely to fall into an economic slump most experts advise that the central bank and the government should embark on loose monetary and fiscal policies to counter the possible economic recession. In this sense, most experts are following the ideas of the English economist John Maynard Keynes.

Most economists are of the view that by means of economic indicators it is possible to identify early signs of an upcoming recession or prosperity. What is the rationale behind this opinion? The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) introduced the economic indicators approach in the 1930s.

For most so-called practical economists, information regarding the state of an economy is derived from data. Thus, if an economic statistic such as real gross domestic product or industrial production shows a visible increase, it is considered indicative of a strengthening of the economy. Conversely, a decline in the growth rate is regarded as weakening. It seems that by looking at the data one can ascertain economic conditions. Is this the case, though? The so-called data that analysts are looking at is a display of historical information.

In order to establish the state of the economy, economists employ various theories. Yet what are the criteria for how they decide whether the theory employed is helpful in ascertaining the facts of reality?
According to the popular way of thinking, our knowledge of the world of economics is elusive — it is not possible to ascertain how the world of economics really works.

Mainstream thinking considers the central bank a key factor in the determination of interest rates. By setting short-term interest rates, the central bank, it is argued, can influence the entire interest rate structure by creating expectations about the future course of its interest rate policy.

A visible weakness in economic activity in major world economies raises concern among various commentators that world economies have difficulties recovering despite very aggressive loose monetary policies. The yearly growth rate of US industrial production stood at minus 1.1 % in October, against minus 0.1% in September, and 4.1% in October last year.

According to Mariana Mazzucato, the RM Phillips Professor in the Economics of Innovation at the University of Sussex, government is an important factor in the promotion of innovation and thus economic growth. In particular, she challenges the popular view that innovation happens in the private sector, with governments playing a limited role. Many commentators regard her as a revolutionary thinker that challenges the accepted dogma regarding the role of government in promoting innovations and economic growth.

With interest rates in many countries close to zero or even negative, some commentators are of the view that monetary policy of the central banks are likely to become less effective in navigating the economy. In fact it is held that we have most likely reached a situation that the economy is approaching a liquidity trap. But what does this mean?

According to an article in Bloomberg on November 5, 2019, Milton Friedman’s business cycle theory seems to be vindicated. According to Milton Friedman, strong recoveries are just natural after particularly deep recessions. Like a guitar string, the harder the string is plucked down, the faster it should come back up.

For most experts, deflation is considered bad news since it generates expectations of a decline in prices. As a result, they believe, consumers are likely to postpone their buying of goods at present since they expect to buy these goods at lower prices in the future.

For most financial commentators an important factor that either reinforces or weakens the effect of changes in the money supply on economic activity and prices is the “velocity of money”.

A very good visual correlation between the yearly percentage change in the consumer price index (CPI) and the yearly percentage change in the price of oil seems to provide support to the popular thinking that future changes in price inflation in the US are likely to be set by the yearly growth rate in the price of oil (see first chart below).

For most economists the key factor that sets the foundation for healthy economic fundamentals is a stable price level as depicted by the consumer price index. According to this way of thinking, a stable price level doesn’t obscure the visibility of the relative changes in the prices of goods and services, and enables businesses to see clearly market signals that are conveyed by the relative changes in the prices of goods and services.

A Difference of Opinions, In his various writings, Murray Rothbard argued that in a free market economy that operates on a gold standard, the creation of credit that is not fully backed up by gold (fractional-reserve banking) sets in motion the menace of the boom-bust cycle.

In the slump of a cycle, businesses that were thriving begin to experience difficulties or go under. They do so not because of firm-specific entrepreneurial errors but rather in tandem with whole sectors of the economy. People who were wealthy yesterday have become poor today. Factories that were busy yesterday are shut down today, and workers are out of jobs.

In his speech at the New York Federal Reserve of New York on October 5, 2016, the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer has suggested that a visible decline in the natural interest rate in the US could be on account of the world glut of saving. According to Fischer, both increased saving and reduced investments have potentially significantly lowered the natural rate of interest.

A fall in the US velocity of money M2 to 1.44 in June from 1.51 in June last year and 2.2 in May 1997 has alarmed many experts. Note that the June figure is the lowest since January 1959.

“We are all Keynesians now, so let’s get fiscal.” This is one view according to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard from The Telegraph who believes the time is right for the UK government to loosen its fiscal stance. He suggests that the “Bank of England has done everything possible under the constraints of monetary orthodoxy to cushion the Brexit shock. It is now up to the British government to save the economy, and the sooner the better,” — argues the economics editor of The Telegraph.

“Experts” Assert that Inflation is an Agent of Economic Growth. For most experts, deflation, which they define as a general decline in prices of goods and services, is bad news since it generates expectations for a further decline in prices.

Once Upon a Time… Prior to 1933, the name “dollar” was used to refer to a unit of gold that had a weight of 23.22 grains. Since there are 480 grains in one ounce, this means that the name dollar also stood for 0.048 ounce of gold. This in turn, means that one ounce of gold referred to $20.67.

The tenets of the Efficient Market Hypothesis and Modern Portfolio Theory. It is widely held that financial asset markets always fully reflect all available and relevant information, and that adjustment to new information is virtually instantaneous.

If the process of wealth generation is currently in good shape then Britain’s exit from the EU shouldn’t have any negative effect on real economic growth. This, however, might not be the case.
It is likely that the reckless monetary policy of central banks in the UK and the eurozone has inflicted a severe damage to the process of real wealth formation.

  What Determines a Currency’s Value? At the end of March the price of the euro in terms of US dollars closed at 1.1378. This was an increase of 4.7 percent from February when it increased by 0.3 percent. The yearly growth rate of the price of the eu…