What is New?
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Upward pressure on equity volatility mitigated by fund flows
19 hours agoWhereas inflation is expected to be dormant next year, our expectation of real GDP growth of just 1.3% in the US in 2020 could put upward pressure on equity volatility. Since monetary policy tends to lead volatility by two and a half years, the Fed’s turn toward quantitative tightening in 2017 is also continuing to exert upward pressure on volatility levels for now.
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Switzerland’s skilled worker shortage worsens
20 hours ago -
French strike disrupts rail traffic with Switzerland
20 hours ago -
All Signs Of More Slack
22 hours ago -
More Signals Of The Downturn, Globally Synchronized
23 hours ago -
Blue Laws: Consumers, Not Capitalists, Are the Reason We’re Working on Sunday
23 hours ago -
FX Daily, December 6: And Now for the Employment Report
1 day ago
SNB and CHF
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Sluggish below 100-DMA, 38.2 percent Fibonacci
2 days agoUSD/CHF declines for the second consecutive day. 50% Fibonacci retracement, October low could challenge sellers. An upside break of 0.9890 highlights 200-DMA, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. USD/CHF extends the recent pullback while flashing 0.9870 as a quote during early Friday. The pair recently pulled back from 100-Day Simple Moving Average (DMA) and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of August-October rise.
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SNB entbindet zwei Bilanzpositionen der Unterlegungspflicht
3 days ago -
USD/CHF Technical Analysis: 38.2 percent Fibonacci, 200-DMA doubt pullback from monthly low
4 days ago -
Verpflichtungen der Anlagefonds sinken erstmals seit 2008
4 days ago -
USD/CHF hammered down to sub-0.9900 levels, 2-week lows
4 days ago -
2019-12-03 – Amendment of National Bank Ordinance
5 days ago -
Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions
6 days ago
Gold and Bitcoin
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Largest Gold Nugget in Britain Found in River in Scotland – “Experts” Concerned About a Scottish Gold Rush
2 days agoThe largest gold nugget in Britain has been found in a Scottish river, as experts reveal that members of the public are taking up hunting after watching YouTube clips. The diver, who wishes to remain anonymous, discovered the £80,000 “doughnut-shaped” nugget using a method called “sniping”, in which a prospector uses a snorkel and hand tools to scan the riverbed for treasures.
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Global ‘Gold Rush’ Beginning As Investors and Central Banks Buy, Repatriate and Move Gold
2 days ago -
$255 Trillion Global Debt Bubble May Burst In 2020 – Prepare Now
4 days ago -
Money and Prices Are a Dynamic System, Report 1 Dec
5 days ago -
Eastern European Nations Buy and Repatriate Gold Due To Growing Risks To Euro and Dollar
6 days ago -
Swiss crypto sector welcomes proposed blockchain law
8 days ago -
Blockchain: your questions answered
9 days ago
Austrian Economics
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Blue Laws: Consumers, Not Capitalists, Are the Reason We’re Working on Sunday
23 hours agoIt has now become commonplace for politicians and media pundits to casually assert that "everyone" — to use Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's term — is now working more and more hours — and perhaps two or three jobs — just to attain the most basic, near-subsistence standard of living.
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The Cultural Consequences of Negative Interest Rates
3 days ago -
The ECB’s “mea culpa”
3 days ago -
Exports: Currency Devaluation Won’t Grow the Economy
4 days ago -
Politicians Want Thanksgiving To Be Political. Ignore Them.
7 days ago -
The Hidden Link Between Fiat Money and the Increasing Appeal of Socialism
9 days ago -
Capital Accumulation, Not Government, Is the Key To Technological Innovation
10 days ago
Swiss & European Macro
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Upward pressure on equity volatility mitigated by fund flows
19 hours agoWhereas inflation is expected to be dormant next year, our expectation of real GDP growth of just 1.3% in the US in 2020 could put upward pressure on equity volatility. Since monetary policy tends to lead volatility by two and a half years, the Fed’s turn toward quantitative tightening in 2017 is also continuing to exert upward pressure on volatility levels for now.
Read more » -
Core sovereign bonds 2020 Outlook
2 days ago -
Swiss Consumer Price Index in Novemeber 2019: -0.1 percent YoY, -0.1 percent MoM
5 days ago -
Swiss Retail Sales, October 2019: +0.1 percent Nominal and +0.9 percent Real
6 days ago -
Euro Area 2020 Macro Outlook
9 days ago -
Switzerland GDP Q3 2019: +0.4 percent QoQ, +1.1 percent YoY
10 days ago -
Swiss wage index 2019: Real and minimum wages increased by 1.1 percent and 0.8 percent respectively in 2019
12 days ago
Swiss Markets & News
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Switzerland’s skilled worker shortage worsens
20 hours agoAt 30 September 2019, Switzerland had 79,000 job vacancies and 225,000 unemployed workers. This combination of unemployment and job vacancies can largely be explained by two things. The first is frictional unemployment, the period spent in between jobs. This typically increases when there is a lot of job changing. The second is a skills mismatch. Employers cannot find the skills they need among those seeking work.
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French strike disrupts rail traffic with Switzerland
20 hours ago -
Environmental spending and jobs on the rise
2 days ago -
Julius Bär ordered to repay CHF153 million missing German funds
2 days ago -
Record number of new e-cars on Swiss roads
3 days ago -
China No Longer Needs US Parts In Its Phones
4 days ago -
Swiss foreign work permit quotas maintained for 2020
5 days ago
FX Trends
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FX Daily, December 6: And Now for the Employment Report
1 day agoOverview: Asia Pacific equities closed higher today, with India being a notable exception. Hong Kong and South Korea led with 1% rallies. For the week, the MSCI index for the region advanced to snap a three-week decline. European and US bourses have not fared as well. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is paring this week's losses, but it is still off around 0.9% through the European morning session.
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FX Daily, December 5: Sterling Sent Higher as Market Discounts Next Week’s Election
2 days ago -
FX Daily, December 4: Hope Springs Eternal
3 days ago -
FX Daily, December 3: US Brandishes Tariff Weapon and Weakens Animal Spirits
4 days ago -
FX Daily, December 2: PMIs Provide Latest Fuel for Equity Markets
5 days ago -
FX Daily, November 29: Equities Slip While Investors Mark Time
8 days ago -
FX Daily, November 27: In Search of New Incentives
10 days ago
Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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All Signs Of More Slack
22 hours agoThe evidence continues to pile up for increasing slack in the US economy. While that doesn’t necessarily mean there is a recession looming, it sure doesn’t help in that regard. Besides, more slack after ten years of it is the real story. The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure in October 2019 stood at 1.31%, matching February for the lowest in several years.
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More Signals Of The Downturn, Globally Synchronized
23 hours ago -
Costs Are Spiraling Out of Control
2 days ago -
Consistent Trade War Inconsistency Hides The Consistent Trend
3 days ago -
The Risen (euro)Dollar
3 days ago -
Crunchtime: When Events Outrun Plan B
4 days ago -
Dollar Soft on Weak Data and the Return of Tariff Man
4 days ago
Markets
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The Golden Autumn Season – One of the Most Reliable Seasonal Patterns Begins
2019-10-30The Strongest Seasonal Stock Market Trend. Readers may already have guessed: when the vibrant colors of the autumn leaves are revealed in all their splendor, the strongest seasonal period of the year begins in the stock market – namely the year-end rally. Stocks typically rise in this time period. However, there are questions, such as: how often does a rally take place, how strong is it, and when is the best time for investors to enter the...
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America’s Road Map to $40 Trillion National Debt by 2028
2019-10-21 -
Tidbits Of Further Warnings: Houston, We (Still) Have A (Repo) Problem
2019-10-18 -
Head Faking In The Empty Zoo: Powell Expands The Balance Sheet (Again)
2019-10-09 -
Money Markets: Sizing Up the Cavalry
2019-09-26 -
More Than A Decade Too Late: FRBNY Now Wants To Know, Where Were The Dealers?
2019-09-24 -
What’s The Verdict On This Week?
2019-09-21
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
2015-06-28Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
2015-06-18 -
Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
2015-02-21 -
End of EUR/CHF Peg
2015-02-21 -
Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
2015-02-06 -
Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
2015-01-28 -
What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
2015-01-20
The History of the Swiss Franc
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Swiss Franc History: Volcker Shock, Oil Glut and the Breakdown of Gold and Emerging Markets
2014-06-22After the Volcker moment or sometimes called "Volcker shock", commodity prices plunged, the gold price collapsed. Thanks to additional supply, e.g. from Northsea oil, a so-called oil glut appeared. After the increase of debt in the 1970s, some economies in Southern America collapsed. The major reason was Volcker's tight monetary policy with high interest rates and the dependency on US funds. Global economic growth remained lack-lustre during...
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Swiss Franc History: From Bretton Woods until the Swiss real estate crisis
2014-06-22 -
Swiss Franc History: The Gold Standard and Bretton Woods
2015-06-08 -
Swiss Franc History, 1970s: Due to US Stagflation CHF Strengthens Massively
2014-06-22 -
Swiss Franc History, 2012: CHF becomes a “safe” Risk-On Currency
2013-06-22 -
History of SNB Interventions
2014-11-22 -
Swiss Franc History: The long-term view and the comparison with gold
2014-06-22
Economic Theory
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Social and Geographic Theories and the Euro Crisis
2012-12-30
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Traditional Monetarist vs. Market Monetarists
2012-12-30 -
7) Economic Theory
2012-08-21 -
Mainstream Economics , The Medium Run
2012-12-30 -
Supply Side Economics
2012-12-30 -
Irvin Fisher’s Deflationary Spiral
2013-01-11 -
Richard Koo´s misleading take on the great recession: The final chapter – a guest post by Mark Sadowski
2015-12-08
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?
2014-11-04Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF. Evans-Pritchard spends most of his time talking about the bearish yen implications of the increased BOJ purchases, and mentions GPIF only at the very end of the his essay, and even then to...
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
2012-05-18 -
7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
2014-05-18 -
How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
2014-02-15 -
Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
2012-12-30 -
Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
2014-05-18 -
Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
2014-04-20