Upward pressure on equity volatility mitigated by fund flows

Whereas inflation is expected to be dormant next year, our expectation of real GDP growth of just 1.3% in the US in 2020 could put upward pressure on equity volatility. Since monetary policy tends to lead volatility by two and a half years, the Fed’s turn toward quantitative tightening in 2017 is also continuing to exert upward pressure on volatility levels for now.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Sluggish below 100-DMA, 38.2 percent Fibonacci

USD/CHF declines for the second consecutive day. 50% Fibonacci retracement, October low could challenge sellers. An upside break of 0.9890 highlights 200-DMA, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. USD/CHF extends the recent pullback while flashing 0.9870 as a quote during early Friday. The pair recently pulled back from 100-Day Simple Moving Average (DMA) and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of August-October rise.

Largest Gold Nugget in Britain Found in River in Scotland – “Experts” Concerned About a Scottish Gold Rush

The largest gold nugget in Britain has been found in a Scottish river, as experts reveal that members of the public are taking up hunting after watching YouTube clips. The diver, who wishes to remain anonymous, discovered the £80,000 “doughnut-shaped” nugget using a method called “sniping”, in which a prospector uses a snorkel and hand tools to scan the riverbed for treasures.

Blue Laws: Consumers, Not Capitalists, Are the Reason We’re Working on Sunday

It has now become commonplace for politicians and media pundits to casually assert that "everyone" — to use Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's term — is now working more and more hours — and perhaps two or three jobs — just to attain the most basic, near-subsistence standard of living.

Upward pressure on equity volatility mitigated by fund flows

Whereas inflation is expected to be dormant next year, our expectation of real GDP growth of just 1.3% in the US in 2020 could put upward pressure on equity volatility. Since monetary policy tends to lead volatility by two and a half years, the Fed’s turn toward quantitative tightening in 2017 is also continuing to exert upward pressure on volatility levels for now.

Switzerland’s skilled worker shortage worsens

At 30 September 2019, Switzerland had 79,000 job vacancies and 225,000 unemployed workers. This combination of unemployment and job vacancies can largely be explained by two things. The first is frictional unemployment, the period spent in between jobs. This typically increases when there is a lot of job changing. The second is a skills mismatch. Employers cannot find the skills they need among those seeking work.

FX Daily, December 6: And Now for the Employment Report

Overview:  Asia Pacific equities closed higher today, with India being a notable exception.  Hong Kong and South Korea led with 1% rallies.  For the week, the MSCI index for the region advanced to snap a three-week decline.  European and US bourses have not fared as well.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is paring this week's losses, but it is still off around 0.9% through the European morning session. 

All Signs Of More Slack

The evidence continues to pile up for increasing slack in the US economy. While that doesn’t necessarily mean there is a recession looming, it sure doesn’t help in that regard. Besides, more slack after ten years of it is the real story. The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure in October 2019 stood at 1.31%, matching February for the lowest in several years.

The Golden Autumn Season – One of the Most Reliable Seasonal Patterns Begins

The Strongest Seasonal Stock Market Trend. Readers may already have guessed: when the vibrant colors of the autumn leaves are revealed in all their splendor, the strongest seasonal period of the year begins in the stock market – namely the year-end rally. Stocks typically rise in this time period. However, there are questions, such as: how often does a rally take place, how strong is it, and when is the best time for investors to enter the...

Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal

Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.

Swiss Franc History: Volcker Shock, Oil Glut and the Breakdown of Gold and Emerging Markets

After the Volcker moment or sometimes called "Volcker shock", commodity prices plunged, the gold price collapsed. Thanks to additional supply, e.g. from Northsea oil, a so-called oil glut appeared. After the increase of debt in the 1970s, some economies in Southern America collapsed. The major reason was Volcker's tight monetary policy with high interest rates and the dependency on US funds. Global economic growth remained lack-lustre during...

Social and Geographic Theories and the Euro Crisis

Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?

Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF. Evans-Pritchard spends most of his time talking about the bearish yen implications of the increased BOJ purchases, and mentions GPIF only at the very end of the his essay, and even then to...