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What is New?
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UBS Shares Tumble As French Judge Slaps Bank With $5.1 Billion Tax Evasion Fine
In a landmark ruling that sent a clear message to other banks battling misconduct investigations in French courts, a Paris court on Wednesday found UBS guilty of having actively helped some of its wealthy French clients hide money from French tax authorities in undeclared Swiss bank accounts, and ordered the bank to pay a $5.1 billion fine.
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FX Daily, February 20: US-China Trade and Brexit Dominate Ahead of FOMC Minutes
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Strong Trade Balance Data Supports the Franc
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Credit Exhaustion Is Global
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Gold to consolidate before further leg up
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Central Planning Is More than Just Friction, Report 17 February
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FX Daily, February 19: Investors Need Fresh Incentives
SNB and Central Banks
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Strong Trade Balance Data Supports the Franc
The Swiss Franc has been boosted during early morning trading as investors find the latest Trade Balance data supportive of the economy, with the Trade Balance data coming in showing a surplus of CHF3bn. The strength of the Swiss economy is its exports; in watches, chocolate and specialized industrial engineering.
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La Dépossession façon BNS. Entretien ORBIS TERRAE
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The SNB’s Karl Brunner Distinguished Lecture Series: Raghuram Rajan announced as next speaker
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Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions
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Mark Carney Steadies GBP/CHF Rates on Global Viewpoint
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Chaos-Politik der SNB mobilisiert SVP und SP: Milliarden für Vorsorge
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GBPCHF rates hit near 3-month highs
Swiss & European Macro
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Swiss Trade Balance January 2019: Start of a Positive year
Swiss foreign trade started the year 2019 in a positive way. Seasonally adjusted exports rose by 1.1% to 18.9 billion francs and imports by 3.4% to 17.5 billion. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 1.4 billion francs.
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Euro area : What if car tariffs lie ahead ?
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Swiss Labour Force Survey in 4th quarter 2018: 0.8percent increase in number of employed persons; unemployment rate based on ILO definition at 4.6percent
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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in January 2019: -0.5 percent YoY, -0.7 percent MoM
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Swiss Consumer Price Index in January 2019: +0.6 percent YoY, -0.3 percent MoM
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Swiss Retail Sales, December 2018: -0.1 percent Nominal and -0.3 percent Real
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Exports save the day for French GDP growth
Swiss Markets & News
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UBS Shares Tumble As French Judge Slaps Bank With $5.1 Billion Tax Evasion Fine
In a landmark ruling that sent a clear message to other banks battling misconduct investigations in French courts, a Paris court on Wednesday found UBS guilty of having actively helped some of its wealthy French clients hide money from French tax authorities in undeclared Swiss bank accounts, and ordered the bank to pay a $5.1 billion fine.
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La Dépossession façon BNS. Entretien ORBIS TERRAE
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Ministers make the case for tax and pension reform package
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Wabco car systems manufacturer moves HQ to Switzerland
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BLS train group to shelve 170 jobs by 2023
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Swiss unemployment rate rises
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Pressure mounts on Swiss commodity traders in Brazil corruption probe
FX Trends
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FX Daily, February 20: US-China Trade and Brexit Dominate Ahead of FOMC Minutes
Overview: The US dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies, but the strongest currency today is the Chinese yuan, following reports that US wants China to keep the yuan stable and not offset US tariffs with currency depreciation. The second monthly decline in Japanese exports weighted on the yen. In the UK, another Labour MP left, while there is speculation that a few Conservatives may defect today.
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FX Daily, February 19: Investors Need Fresh Incentives
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FX Daily, February 18: Dollar Drifts Lower
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FX Weekly Preview: Drivers, While Marking Time
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FX Daily, February 15: Equities Stall While Greenback Remains Firm
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Socialism, Keynesianism, and Fascism
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FX Daily, February 13: QT is not the Opposite of QE
Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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Credit Exhaustion Is Global
Europe is awash in credit exhaustion, and so is China. The signs are everywhere: credit exhaustion is global, and that means the global growth story is over: revenues and profits are all sliding as lending dries up and defaults pile up.
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China’s Big Money Gamble
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Retail Sales Landmine
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What Happens When More QE Fails to Reverse the Recession?
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Inflation Falls Again, Dot-com-like
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What Caused the Recession of 2019-2021?
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The Corporate Lemmings Who Rushed into Mobile/Social Media Ads Are Running off the Cliff
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Gold,Bitcoin,Austrian Economics
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Gold to consolidate before further leg up
Some recent factors supporting gold are fading. However, while gold could sag in the short term, medium-term prospects look better.Last year ended on a very strong note for gold demand, with a significant increase in jewellery and investment demand in the fourth quarter (see chart), leading to strong price performance (7.7% in US dollar terms in Q4).
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Central Planning Is More than Just Friction, Report 17 February
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Gold Prices In Pounds and Euros Gain More as Economic Growth Falters in the UK and EU
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U.S. Congressman Introduces Bill to Remove Income Taxation from Gold and Silver
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Quantum Metal Lease #1 (gold)
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Large Gold Bullion Shipment Moves From London to Dublin Gold Vaults As Brexit Concerns Deepen
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What They Don’t Want You to Know about Prices, Report 10 Feb
Markets
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LIBOR Was Expected To Drop. It Dropped. What Might This Mean?
Everyone hates LIBOR, until it does something interesting. It used to be the most boring interest rate in the world. When it was that, it was also the most important. Though it followed along federal funds this was only because of the arb between onshore (NYC) and offshore (mainly London, sometimes Caymans) conducted by banks between themselves and their subs (whichever was located where).
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Insane Repo Reminds Us
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The Bear Market Hook
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A Global Dearth of Liquidity
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Swiss stock exchange could lose EU access in January
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Gold and Silver Hold Firm as Stocks and Oil Lower in to US Holiday Weekend
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The Intolerable Scourge of Fake Capitalism
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
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End of EUR/CHF Peg
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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
The History of the Swiss Franc
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The Secret History Of The Banking Crisis
Accounts of the financial crisis leave out the story of the secretive deals between banks that kept the show on the road. How long can the system be propped up for? It is a decade since the first tremors of what would become the Great Financial Crisis began to convulse global markets. Across the world from China and South Korea, to Ukraine, Greece, Brexit Britain and Trump’s America it has shaken our economy, our society and latterly our...
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Swiss Franc History: The Gold Standard and Bretton Woods
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Swiss Franc History: Weak German and Swiss growth between 1996 and 2004
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Swiss Franc History, from 2004 to 2009: The undervalued franc
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Swiss Franc History, 2000-2007: The sale of the Swiss gold reserves
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Swiss Franc History, 2012: CHF becomes a “safe” Risk-On Currency
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Volckers Attack on Stagflation
Economic Theory
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Heterodox Economic Theories and GDP
Heterodox economic theories focus on the human desires to spend, to save, to obtain credit in order to anticipate spending and future earnings, to increase or to reduce debt or even to deplete existing savings, on human behaviour. Those theories neither think that humans are rational nor that markets are efficient.
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Ageing and Immigration in the U.S. and Japan and the New Normal
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Monetarist and Austrian Critique against MMT
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Mainstream Economics, The Short Run
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Social and Geographic Theories and the Euro Crisis
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Hans Werner Sinn’s Piketty Critique: “r ≠ i > g”
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?
Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF. Evans-Pritchard spends most of his time talking about the bearish yen implications of the increased BOJ purchases, and mentions GPIF only at the very end of the his essay, and even then to...
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
