Monthly Archive: December 2017

SNB Monetary Assessment Dec 2017, Introduction

2017-12-14

by

2017-12-14

Global Equity Markets Jan 2017-Jun 2017
The monetary policy pursued by the large central banks was once again the focus of attention for the financial markets in the second half of the year. Given moderate inflation growth, financial market participants are expecting only a very gradual normalisation of monetary policy across the world. Against this backdrop, government bond yields have remained persistently low. Muted expectations regarding a move away from expansionary monetary policy,...

Read More »

News conference Swiss National Bank 2017, Fritz Zurbrügg

2017-12-14

by

2017-12-14

Fritz Zurbrugg
In my remarks today, I would like to address some of the developments currently taking place in the field of financial stability. I shall look at the big banks first before turning to the domestically focused banks. I will conclude with a few words on the new banknote series.

Read More »

SNB Monetary policy assessment of 14 December 2017

2017-12-14

by

2017-12-14

SNB Switzerland Conditional Inflation Forecast
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy, with the aim of stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB is to remain at –0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at between –1.25% and –0.25%. The SNB will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in November 2017: +1.8 YoY, +0.6 MoM

2017-12-14

by

2017-12-14

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, November 2017
The Producer and Import Price Index rose in November 2017 by 0.6% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.6 points (base December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products, chemical and pharmaceutical products and scrap. Compared with November 2016, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 1.8%.

Read More »

The Swiss economy is gaining momentum

2017-12-14

by

2017-12-14

Swiss Real GDP Growth, 1990 - 2018
Swiss growth was disappointing at the end of 2016 and in the first half of 2017. Consequently, GDP growth this year is likely to be just 1.0% , its lowest level since 2012 . However, a wide set of statistics are already painting a considerably more positive picture of strengthening growth as we approach the end of 2017. Of particular note is the increasing contribution of manufacturing to real GDP growth.

Read More »

FX Daily, December 14: US Rates Bounce Back, but Dollar, Hardly

2017-12-14

by

2017-12-14

US interest rates have recovered the drop seen after the FOMC yesterday, but the dollar at best has been able to consolidate its losses and at worst, seen its losses extended. The Fed boosted its growth forecasts and lower unemployment forecasts. Yet its interest rate trajectory and inflation forecasts were largely unchanged. Yellen, as her recent predecessors have done, played down the implications of the flattening of the yield curve.

Read More »

Euro Area Forecast to Grow 2.3percent in 2018

2017-12-13

by

2017-12-13

Euro Area Real GDP Growth
2017 was the year of the ‘Euroboom’ and the removal of political tail risks. Moving into 2018, we mark-to-market strong economic data, including carryover and revisions. We forecast annual GDP growth of 2.3% both in 2017 and 2018. Qualitatively, our forecasts reflect our view that the euro area has reached ‘escape velocity’, with important implications for investors.

Read More »

Farm Census 2016: Swiss farmers work well over 60 hours per week

2017-12-13

by

2017-12-13

Weekly Working Hours in Agriculture 2016
For several years the average Swiss farmer has been working well over 60 hours per week. With their off-farm jobs, part-time farmers also work long hours. From 2010 to 2016, however, the hours worked fell by one hour per week. Over the same period, farms greatly increased the direct sale of farm products (+60%). Despite the long working hours, in many cases it is very likely that a family member will take over the farm. These are some of the latest...

Read More »

FX Daily, December 13: Greenback Quiet Ahead of Five Central Bank Meetings

2017-12-13

by

2017-12-13

The Federal Reserve gets the balling rolling today with the FOMC meeting, which is most likely to deliver the third hike of the year. Tomorrow, four European central banks meet: Norway, Switzerland, the UK, and the ECB. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose nearly 0.3%, though Japanese and Indian shares were lower. In Europe, the Down Jones Stoxx 600 is paring yesterday's gains (-0.2%) led by utilities and telecom. Consumer discretion and financials are...

Read More »

Darwin Airline announces bankruptcy to staff

2017-12-13

by

2017-12-13

Swiss regional carrier Darwin Airline has been forced to concede bankruptcy after a period of serious financial problems. Its plight will cause further headaches for the airport of Lugano in southern Switzerland, where it is based. A fortnight after seeing its fleet grounded by the Federal Office of Civil Aviation, the company informed its 250 staff on Tuesday that bankruptcy was imminent.

Read More »

A Race To The Potential Behind Bitcoin

2017-12-13

by

2017-12-13

The timing just never seems to fall in our favor. If we had had this conversation ten years ago as would have been appropriate, then this evolution might have fell perfectly in our collective laps. Just as the global financial system, really the international, interbank monetary system of the eurodollar, was crashing all around us, the genesis block of the Bitcoin blockchain was hard coded.

Read More »

Three Years Ago QE, Last Year It Was China, Now It’s Taxes

2017-12-13

by

2017-12-13

China Manufacturing PMI, May 2007 - Nov 2017
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported last week that the official manufacturing PMI for that country rose from 51.6 in October to 51.8 in November. Since “analysts” were expecting 51.4 (Reuters poll of Economists) it was taken as a positive sign. The same was largely true for the official non-manufacturing PMI, rising like its counterpart here from 54.3 the month prior to 54.8 last month.

Read More »

FX Daily, December 12: UK Front and Center, but Sterling is Laggard in Today’s Move Against the Dollar

2017-12-12

by

2017-12-12

The US dollar is trading with a lower bias against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The upside surprise in Sweden's inflation is helped the krona recover from its recent slide. It is the strongest of the majors, gaining 1.1% against the dollar and nearly as much against the euro, which is in a third of a cent range below $1.18.

Read More »

Weekly Technical Analysis: 11/12/2017 – USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold

2017-12-12

by

2017-12-12

USD/CHF, December 12
The USDCHF pair begins to bounce higher after approaching from 0.9892 level, supported by the EMA50 that meets the mentioned level, while stochastic shows clear bullish trend signals on the four hours time frame. Therefore, these factors encourage us to keep our positive expectations in the upcoming period, waiting for visiting 1.0038 level as a next main station, being aware that breaking 0.9892 will stop the expected rise and turns the price back...

Read More »

49 Countries Have Violated Sanctions On North Korea

2017-12-12

by

2017-12-12

49 Countries have violated sanctions on North Korea
A new report from the Institute for Science and International Security has found that 49 countries violated sanctions on North Korea to varying degrees between March 2014 and September 2017. 13 governments including Cuba, Egypt, Iran and Syria were involved in military violations, which as Statista's Martin Armstrong notes, includes either receiving military training from North Korea or being involved in the import and export of military equipment.

Read More »

Russia, China and BRICS: A New Gold Trading Network

2017-12-12

by

2017-12-12

Deputy Governors
One of the most notable events in Russia’s precious metals market calendar is the annual “Russian Bullion Market” conference. Formerly known as the Russian Bullion Awards, this conference, now in its 10th year, took place this year on Friday 24 November in Moscow. Among the speakers lined up, the most notable inclusion was probably Sergey Shvetsov, First Deputy Chairman of Russia’s central bank, the Bank of Russia.

Read More »

A Radical Critique of Universal Basic Income

2017-12-12

by

2017-12-12

Money and Work
This critique reveals the unintended consequences of UBI. Readers have been asking me what I thought of Universal Basic Income (UBI) as the solution to the systemic problem of jobs being replaced by automation.To answer this question, I realized I had to start by taking a fresh look at work and its role in human life and society. And since UBI is fundamentally a distribution of money, I also needed to take a fresh look at our system of money.

Read More »

Less Retail Jobs, More Amazon Robots: Get Used To It

2017-12-12

by

2017-12-12

Robots
When it comes to job creation in the United States, President Trump will be displeased to hear the latest findings from Quartz: 170,000 fewer retail jobs in 2017 - and 75,000 more Amazon robots. In November, we explained that while everyone likes to point the finger at Amazon, America’s retail apocalypse can’t be tied to just one catalyst (see: A Look At America’s Retail Apocalypse In Charts), however, fierce competition in the industry has induced...

Read More »

FX Daily, December 11: Dollar Mixed to Start the Week, While Equities Firm

2017-12-11

by

2017-12-11

The US dollar is narrowly mixed in relatively quiet activity. Year-end adjustment is well underway, and the news stream is light to start the week that sees more than a dozen central bank meetings. There is little doubt in the market that the Federal Reserve will hike rates for the third time this year at mid-week.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: FOMC and ECB Highlight Central Banks’ Last Meetings of the Year

2017-12-11

by

2017-12-11

No fewer than thirteen central banks meet in the week ahead. The UK and the US report the latest inflation figures, and the US and eurozone report industrial production. The eurozone sees the flash PMI for December, and the Japan's latest Tankan business survey will be released.

Read More »