Monthly Archive: December 2017

UBS chairman warns of ‘bitcoin bubble’

2017-12-18

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2017-12-18

Axel Weber, the board chairman of big bank UBS, has warned of a possible Bitcoin currency crash. With increasing numbers of small investors jumping on the cryptocurrency bandwagon, it is time for regulators to intervene, he says. Bitcoin has surged from $1,000 (CHF9,900) at the start of the year to above $16,000.

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Slow wage growth to keep Fed on prudent normalisation track

2017-12-17

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2017-12-17

Wage Growth, 2001 - 2017
The November employment report showed another ‘Goldilocks’ set of conditions for investors: employment growth remained firm, especially in cyclical sectors like manufacturing and construction. At the same time, wage growth stayed soft – which means the Federal Reserve is unlikely to shift its current prudent communication on interest -rate hikes (although it is still very likely to hike 25bps on 13 December).

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ECB preview: close to target…by 2020

2017-12-17

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2017-12-17

ECB Staff Projections, Sep 2017
The ECB’s meeting on 14 December would be a non-event if it were not for two specific points to make clear before the Christmas break – the staff forecasts for inflation, and the not-so-constructive ambiguity on QE horizon. We expect no major surprise from the new staff projections, reflecting the ECB’s cautiously upbeat tone.

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Poverty risk high for Swiss pensioners despite high spending

2017-12-17

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2017-12-17

Wallet
A recent OECD study, which looks at retirement, shows the relatively large amount spent on pensioners in Switzerland. Switzerland consumes 11% of its GDP on retirees, compared to 9% across OECD nations. Despite this high spending, the risk of poverty is higher in Switzerland than across the OECD. According to the organisation, 19% of those over 64 in Switzerland are at risk of poverty, compared to an OECD average of 13%.

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Buy Gold, Silver Time After Speculators Reduce Longs and Banks Reduce Shorts

2017-12-17

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2017-12-17

Concentration of Traders in the CFTC COTs
Gold and silver COT suggests bottoming and price rally coming. Speculators cut way back on long positions and added to short bets. Commercials/banks significantly reduced short positions. Commercial net short position saw biggest one-week decline in COMEX history. ‘Big 4’ commercial traders decreased their short positions by 28,800 contracts. Seasonally, January is generally a good month to own gold (see table). "If history is still reliable,...

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Could Central Banks Dump Gold in Favor of Bitcoin?

2017-12-17

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2017-12-17

Bank of Japan Balance Sheet, 2000 - 2017
All of which brings us to the "crazy" idea of backing fiat currencies with cryptocurrencies, an idea I first floated back in 2013, long before the current crypto-craze emerged. Exhibit One: here's your typical central bank, creating trillions of units of currency every year, backed by nothing but trust in the authority of the government, created at the whim of a handful of people in a room and distributed to their cronies, or at the behest of their...

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The Rug Yank Phase of Fed Policy

2017-12-17

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2017-12-17

H. L. Mencken
The political differences of today’s two leading parties are not over ultimate questions of principle. Rather, they are over opposing answers to the question of how a goal can be achieved with the least sacrifice. For lawmakers, the goal is to promise the populace something for nothing, while pretending to make good on it.

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Fed rate unlikely to move much above 2 percent next year

2017-12-16

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2017-12-16

The Fed's "dot plot", 2017 - 2019
The Federal Reserve is probably looking back at 2017 with satisfaction. After on the rate rise expected on 13 December, it will have pushed through the three rate hikes it signalled earlier in the year. For once, it has not under-delivered. Meanwhile, the gradual, ‘passive’ decline in the Fed’s balance sheet has been mostly ignored by markets. In fact, broader financial conditions have eased this year despite the Fed’s monetary tightening....

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Uber to stop offering budget service in Basel

2017-12-16

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2017-12-16

The ride-sharing firm Uber has announced it will abandon its UberPop service in the city of Basel from June 1, 2018, as it is not profitable enough. UberPop has already been discontinued in Zurich and Lausanne. According to the company, the decision was taken due to feedback from its partners, who wanted to earn more money through the more expensive UberX service. Economic success was not possible through its cheapest service UberPop, the company...

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Bitcoin vs Fiat Currency: Which Fails First?

2017-12-16

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2017-12-16

What if bitcoin is a reflection of trust in the future value of fiat currencies? I am struck by the mainstream confidence that bitcoin is a fraud/fad that will soon collapse, while central bank fiat currencies are presumed to be rock-solid and without risk. Those with supreme confidence in fiat currencies might want to look at a chart of Venezuela's fiat currency, which has declined from 10 to the US dollar in 2012 to 5,000 to the USD earlier this...

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Chart of the Week: Collateral

2017-12-16

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2017-12-16

US Treasuries, Jan 2017 - Dec 2017
It’s been a week of quite righteous focus on collateral. The 4-week bill equivalent yield closes it at just 114 bps, with only three days left before the RRP “floor” is moved up by the FOMC to 125 bps. That’s too much premium in price, though we know why given what FRBNY reported for repo fails last week.

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China Exports and Industrial Production: Revisiting Once More The True Worst Case

2017-12-16

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2017-12-16

Labor Market Growth, 1968 - 2017
As weird as it may seem at first, the primary economic problem right now is that the global economy looks like it is growing again. There is no doubt that it continues on an upturn, but the mere fact that whatever economic statistic has a positive sign in front of it ends up being classified as some variant of strong. That’s how this works in mainstream analysis, this absence of any sort of gradation where if it’s negative it’s bad (though in 2015...

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The Stock Market and the FOMC

2017-12-16

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2017-12-16

Dow Price in Dollars and Gold, 1800 - 2017
As the final FOMC announcement of the year approaches, we want to briefly return to the topic of how the meeting tends to affect the stock market from a statistical perspective. As long time readers may recall, the typical performance of the stock market in the trading days immediately ahead of FOMC announcements was quite remarkable in recent decades. We are referring to the Seaonax event study of the average (or seasonal) performance across a...

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Jim Grant: “Markets Trust Too Much In The Presence Of Central Banks”

2017-12-15

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2017-12-15

James Grant, Wall Street expert and editor of the renowned investment newsletter «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», warns of the unseen consequences of super low interest rate and questions the extraordinary actions of the Swiss National Bank. Nearly ten years after the financial crisis, extraordinary monetary policy has become the norm.

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A crucial step towards US tax cuts

2017-12-15

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2017-12-15

Impact of Tax Cuts, 2018 - 2027
With the approval of the Senate tax bill in the early hours of Saturday 2 December, a key step has been taken toward tax cuts. The next chapter in the process is to reconcile this version with the House of Representatives’ tax bill, most likely in a ‘conference committee ’ from which a final version will emerge.

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FX Daily, December 15: Premium for Dollar-Funding is not Helping Greenback Very Much

2017-12-15

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2017-12-15

The cross-currency basis swap continues to lurch in the dollar's direction, especially against the euro, and yet the dollar is not drawing much support from it. The increasing cost reflects pressure for the year-end and does not appear to reflect systemic issues. Dollar auction by the ECB and BOJ do not show any strain. The dollar has a downside bias today against most of the major currencies. And is what is true of the day is true for the week....

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Swiss food imports are growing faster than the population

2017-12-15

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2017-12-15

A government study shows that imports of food products have grown by 80% — three times faster than the Swiss population — between 1990 and 2016. In that time, the quantity of imported food consumed per inhabitant went from 344 kilograms to 490 kg.

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Year-end Rate Hike Once Again Proves To Be Launchpad For Gold Price

2017-12-15

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2017-12-15

Year-end rate hike once again proves to be launchpad for gold price. FOMC follows through on much anticipated rate-hike of 0.25%. Spot gold responds by heading for biggest gain in three weeks, rising by over 1%. Final meeting for Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Yellen does not expect Trump's tax-cut package to result in significant, strong growth for US economy. No concern for bitcoin which 'plays a very small role in the payment system'.

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Defining The Economy Through Payrolls

2017-12-15

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2017-12-15

Labor Market Growth, 1968 - 2017
The year 2000 was a transition year in a lot of ways. Though Y2K amounted to mild mass hysteria, people did have to get used to writing the date with 20 in front of the year rather than 19. It was a new millennium (depending on your view of Year 0) that seemed to have started off under the best possible terms. Not only were stocks on fire at the outset, the economy was, too.

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News conference Swiss National Bank, Thomas Jordan

2017-12-14

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2017-12-14

SNB Chairman Jordan speaks to media during a news conference in Bern
It is a pleasure for me to welcome you to the Swiss National Bank’s news conference. I will begin by explaining our monetary policy decision and our assessment of the economic situation. I will then hand over to Fritz Zurbrügg, who will speak about current developments in the area of financial stability. After that, Andréa Maechler will review the situation on the financial markets and the progress in reference interest rate reform. Finally, we...

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