Monthly Archive: December 2017

ECB closer to the 2% inflation target than meets the eye

2017-12-21

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2017-12-21

During an uneventful ECB press conference on Thursday, attention centred on the new staff projections. The headline projections were in line with expectations, albeit slightly higher on GDP growth and lower on inflation. The key word was “confidence” - in a strong expansion leading to a “significant” reduction in economic slack, as well as in the ECB’s capacity to meet its mandate.

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Switzerland should not act alone against tax havens

2017-12-21

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2017-12-21

Switzerland must not go to war on its own against offshore tax havens in the wake of the Panama Papers scandal, the lower chamber of parliament has agreed. It prefers concerted action with other countries and wants to see the results of existing measures. The House of Representatives on Thursday rejected two motions and two parliamentary questions, supported by the leftwing Social Democrats and Greens, which had called for financial transactions...

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Retail Sales Bounce (Way) Too Much

2017-12-21

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2017-12-21

US Retail Sales, Jun 2011 - Nov 2017
Retail sales had a good month of November, or at least what counts as decent over the last five and a half years. Total retail sales (unadjusted) rose 6.35% last month, up from 4.9% (revised higher) in October. It was the highest rate of growth since the 29-day month of February 2016. For retailers, what matters is that it comes at the start of the Christmas shopping season.

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Bubble Watch: Warning Signs That The Everything Bubble Will Burst in 2018

2017-12-20

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2017-12-20

Producer Price Indexes, Dec 2000 - 2017
I believe 2018 will be the year inflation arrives. The reason, as I’ve noted throughout mid-2017, is that multiple Central Banks, particularly the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) have maintained emergency levels of QE and money printing, despite the fact that globally the economy is performing relatively well.

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Euro area: The sky is the limit

2017-12-20

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2017-12-20

Momentum in the euro area picked up further at the end of the year. The flash composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) increased to 58.0 in December, from 57.5 in November, above consensus expectations (57.2). The improvement was once again broad-based across sectors.

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China tops export destination ranking for Swiss SMEs

2017-12-20

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2017-12-20

A study commissioned by Switzerland Global Enterprise (SGE) indicates that China is the most attractive export destination for Swiss small and medium enterprises (SMEs). A total of 107 countries were evaluated using a set of 15 criteria that included market size, market potential, export volume and average market growth in recent years.

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A Gold Guy’s View Of Crypto, Bitcoin, And Blockchain

2017-12-20

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2017-12-20

Bitcoin Price, Oct - Dec 2017
Bitcoin was on my radar far back as 2011, but for years, I didn’t think much of it. It was a curiosity. Nothing more. Sort of like the virtual money you use in World of Warcraft or something. In 2015, looking deeper, I slowly (not the sharpest tool in the shed) arrived at that “aha” inflection point that most advocates of honest money arrive at. I realized that a distributed public ledger has the power to change, well, everything.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Animal Spirits Haunt The Market

2017-12-20

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2017-12-20

The economic data over the last two weeks continued the better than expected trend. Some of the data was quite good and makes one wonder if maybe, just maybe, we are finally ready to break out of the economic doldrums. Is it possible that all that new normal, secular stagnation stuff was just a lack of animal spirits?

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Fed’s enthusiasm on tax cut plans remains limited

2017-12-20

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2017-12-20

The 13 December Fed decision – and Chair Yellen’s last press conference – was much as expected. The Fed hiked rates 25bps, bringing the interest rate on excess reserves to 1.5%. Meanwhile, Fed officials maintained their rate-hiking forecasts for next year: three rate increases, according to the ‘dot plot’.

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Switzerland’s Economic Recovery gains momentum

2017-12-19

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2017-12-19

Comparison of Forecasts of September and December 2017
Economic forecasts by the Federal Government’s Expert Group – Winter 2017/2018* The Federal Government’s Expert Group expects the Swiss economy to make a speedy recovery over the next few quarters. While only moderate GDP growth of 1.0% is anticipated in 2017 due to a weak first half of the year, the forecast for GDP growth in 2018 is strong at 2.3% in the course of the global economic upturn.

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Great Graphic: Sterling Toys with Three-Year Downtrend Line

2017-12-19

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2017-12-19

GBP BGN Currency
Sterling is the second major currency this year after the euro (and its shadow the Danish krone). The downtrend line from mid-2014 is fraying. Is this the breakout?

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 18/12/2017 – USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/CHF

2017-12-19

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2017-12-19

USD/CHF, December 19
The USDCHF pair traded with clear negativity yesterday to break 0.9892 level and settles below it, which stops the recently suggested positive scenario and put the price within the correctional bearish track again, noting that there is a bearish pattern that its signs appear on the chart, which means that breaking its neckline at 0.9840 will extend the pair's losses to surpass 0.9800 and reach 0.9730 as a next station.

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Switzerland Is Well-Prepared For Civilizational Collapse

2017-12-19

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2017-12-19

Swiss1
More than any other country, Switzerland’s ethos is centered around preparing for civilizational collapse. All around Switzerland, for example, one can find thousands of water fountains fed by natural springs. Zurich is famous for its 1200 fountains, some of them quite beautiful and ornate, but it’s the multiple small, simple fountains in every Swiss village that really tell the story. Elegant, yes, but if and when central water systems are...

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National Precious Metals Company Announces Sound Money Scholarship Winners

2017-12-19

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2017-12-19

December 13, 2017 (Eagle, Idaho) -- A national precious metals dealer has selected four outstanding students to receive tuition assistance from America’s first gold-backed scholarship fund. Beginning last year, Money Metals Exchange, a national precious metals dealer recently ranked “Best in the USA,” teamed up with the Sound Money Defense League and well known members of academia and freedom-minded non-profits to offer the first gold-backed...

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Direct Investments in 2016

2017-12-18

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2017-12-18

Direct Investment 2016: Switzerland
In 2016, companies domiciled in Switzerland invested CHF 71 billion abroad. Swiss direct investment abroad thus fell short of the CHF 90 billion recorded in 2015, due primarily to lower investment activity by finance and holding companies. All other industry categories combined actually exceeded the level of the previous year with investment abroad of CHF 62 billion (2015: CHF 46 billion). Of this total, CHF 29 billion was accounted for by...

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Swiss Perfectionism

2017-12-18

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2017-12-18

Kostensteigerung bei der SNB, 2006 - 2016
In Der Bund, Adrian Sulc comments on the Swiss National Bank’s perfectionism. Keine andere Schweizer Organisation kommuniziert so professionell wie die SNB, keine andere Organisation kann so gut dichthalten. Perfectionism is costly. Der Personalbestand ist in den letzten fünf Jahren um 18 Prozent auf 795 Vollzeitstellen gestiegen. … Die durchschnittlichen Lohnkosten pro Mitarbeiter betragen mittlerweile 155 000 Franken pro Jahr. Dies weil gemäss...

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FX Daily, December 18: Trade Tensions with China Set to Escalate

2017-12-18

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2017-12-18

The two main legislative initiatives in the US this year, the repeal of the Affordable Care Act and the tax changes, are not particularly popular. However, the next items on the agenda appear to enjoy broader support. The infrastructure initiative is likely to be unveiled as early as next month. Before that, the US is poised to ratchet up the tension on China.

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FX Weekly Preview: Policy Mix Underlines Positive Fundamental Backdrop for the Dollar

2017-12-18

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2017-12-18

The prospects that the Republican-controlled legislative branch would find a compromise to tax cuts were enhanced when a few senators appeared to capitulate without much to show for it may have helped lift US stocks and dollar ahead of the weekend.

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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

2017-12-18

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2017-12-18

EM FX was mixed last week, with political optimism driving the big winners ZAR and CLP. We remain cautious, as the Fed has signaled its intent to continue tightening in 2018.

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