Monthly Archive: December 2017

Getting easier to get to Swiss business hubs

2017-12-31

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2017-12-31

Swiss business hubs like Zurich are more globally accessible than they were a few years ago. According to the latest “accessibility index” from economic research institute BAK Economicsexternal link in Basel, Zurich has jumped in the rankings from 34 to 28. This is due to improved connections to business hubs in China, India and the United States, says BAK.

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Gold and Gold Stocks – Patterns, Cycles and Insider Activity, Part 1

2017-12-31

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2017-12-31

Gold Hedgers Position 2015-2017
Repeating Patterns and Positioning A noteworthy confluence of patterns in gold and gold stocks is in evidence this year. At the close of trading on December 26, the HUI Index has given a (tentative) buy signal by completing a unique chart pattern, which is why we decided to briefly discuss the situation.

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The BoJ is sticking to monetary easing

2017-12-30

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2017-12-30

YoY Changes in headline and Core CPI in Japan
The BoJ remains the last major central bank still firmly committed to large-scale monetary easing.After its Monetary Policy Meeting of December 21, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced its intention to keep its current monetary easing programme intact. The BOJ will continue with its “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with Yield Curve Control ”, aiming to achieve and overshoot the core inflation target of 2%.

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St Moritz becomes first Swiss ski resort to accept Bitcoin

2017-12-30

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2017-12-30

Ski lifts in and around St Moritz in the Engadine Valley have started accepting Bitcoins as payment for passes. According to Swiss public television, SRF, and the newspaper Südostschweiz, Engadin St Moritz is the first Swiss lift company to recognise payments with cryptocurrencies.

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Die Magie des gesetzlichen Zahlungsmittels

2017-12-29

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2017-12-29

Seit der Aufhebung der Golddeckung durch Präsident Nixon im Jahre 1971 sind die meisten Währungen der westlichen Welt reines Fiatgeld. Was heisst das? Zur Beantwortung der Frage beziehe ich mich ganz bewusst – wie übrigens soweit möglich im ganzen Text – auf keine Lehrbücher oder anderes universitäres Material. In Wikipedia (Stand 3.9.2017) steht:

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Petro-Yuan? Really?

2017-12-29

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2017-12-29

The launch of futures on Bitcoins was rushed so quickly through the regulatory channels that the anticipation was short-lived. And as the recent price action amply demonstrates, the existence of a derivative market has not tamed the digital token's volatility. It is still the early days, but Bitcoin futures do not look likely to change the world.

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Global macro: 10 surprises for 2018

2017-12-29

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2017-12-29

Having laid down our expectations for the World economy in 2018, in this note we describe a number of potential surprises to the outlook. The usual suspects, or ‘known unknowns’, include a larger-than-expected fiscal boost from US tax cuts, (geo-)political risks, economic policy mistakes, inflation surprises, a financial bubble burst, or a Minsky moment in China, to name a few.

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Season’s Greetings

2017-12-29

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2017-12-29

A Difficult, but Also Exciting Year… Dear Readers, Another year is coming to a close, and the team at Acting Man wishes you and your loved ones a Merry Christmas / Happy Holidays and all the best for the new year. You have probably noticed that your main scribe was a lot less prolific this year than he normally tends to be; unfortunately, we were held back by health-related issues.

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2018 ECB outlook – Mission: possible

2017-12-28

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2017-12-28

ECB Asset Purchase Programmes, March 2015 - December 2017
We expect the ECB to announce a tapering of its asset purchase programme in the summer, but not to overreact to strong economic data. Our first choice as the title for our 2018 ECB outlook was “The courage not to act”, but regular readers will know that we used this hommage to Ben Bernanke earlier this year.

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Chinese demand leads the Swiss watch industry’s recovery

2017-12-28

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2017-12-28

Switzerland Exports, 2005 - 2017
The most important driver of the Swiss watch industry’s recovery has been the revival of the mainland China market. After years of impressive growth, the Swiss watch industry faced difficult conditions in 2015 and 2016, when exports declined by 3.2% and 9.9% respectively in value terms.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-12-28

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2017-12-28

Fitch upgraded Indonesia by a notch to BBB with stable outlook. EU-Poland tensions entered a new phase. Cyril Ramaphosa was elected as the new ANC President over opponent Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. Argentina’s lower house approved President Macri’s pension reform bill. Sebastian Pinera won the Chilean presidency in the second round vote.

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Darwin Airlines bankruptcy under criminal investigation

2017-12-28

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2017-12-28

The public prosecutor of the southern Swiss canton of Ticino has opened criminal proceedings over irregularities concerning the bankruptcy of regional carrier Darwin Airlines. According to the SonntagsZeitung paper, the Ticino public prosecutor opened criminal proceedings against “unknown persons” on Thursday after the bankruptcy office in Lugano drew his attention to suspected irregularities.

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Great St Bernard Tunnel reopens after three-month closure

2017-12-28

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2017-12-28

Switzerland’s oldest traffic tunnel through the Alps reopened on Christmas eve after a three-month closure due to problems with the ventilation system. After extensive repair work, the tunnel that connects Martigny in the western Swiss canton of Valais with the Aosta Valley in northwestern Italy reopened to traffic at 8am on Sunday. Motorists wishing to traverse the Alps though the tunnel can travel for free until January 1, 2018

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Christmas 2017: Why I’m Hopeful

2017-12-28

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2017-12-28

Constantine Cavafy Poem
A more human world lies just beyond the edge of the Status Quo. Readers often ask me to post something hopeful, and I understand why: doom-and-gloom gets tiresome. Human beings need hope just as they need oxygen, and the destruction of the Status Quo via over-reach and internal contradictions doesn't leave much to be happy about.

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Switzerland UBS consumption indicator November: Solid private consumption in 2018

2017-12-27

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2017-12-27

Switzerland Private Consumption and UBS Consumption Indicator, November 2017
At 1.67 points, the UBS consumption indicator was above its long-term average in November, indicating solid consumption growth in 2018. Thanks to solid economic growth, private consumption will likely continue expanding despite rising inflation.

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FX Daily, December 27: What Happened on Boxing Day?

2017-12-27

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2017-12-27

There were several developments on the day after Christmas, while many markets remained closed and investors sidelined. One of the most important developments was the euro's complete recovery from the flash crash of nearly three percent on Christmas day in the North American time zone.

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Swiss National Bank buys paper factory for banknote production

2017-12-27

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2017-12-27

To guarantee the smooth roll-out of its new banknote series, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has bought a struggling paper factory in eastern Switzerland. The takeover of Landqart AG, valued at CHF21.5 million ($21.7 million), is split between the SNB (90%) and the security printing division of Swiss publisher Orell Füssli (10%).

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Bitcoin: Attention à l’arnaque. Dossier.

2017-12-27

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2017-12-27

C’est la monnaie préférée des pirates informatiques. Celle qu’exigent les hackers lorsqu’ils formulent une demande de rançon. Mais pas seulement ! Depuis que le bitcoin flambe (il a dépassé le 15 décembre les 17 000 dollars), de plus en plus de fonds d’investissement, alléchés par les perspectives haussières de son cours, s’y intéressent. Et de nombreux sites de commerce en ligne se mettent à facturer produits et services dans cette...

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Public Eye issues criminal complaint against Glencore

2017-12-27

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2017-12-27

Swiss NGO Public Eye has filed a criminal complaint with the Office of the Attorney General of Switzerland against the activities of Swiss commodities giant Glencore in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The Office of the Attorney Generalexternal link on Tuesday confirmed receipt of the complaint but said further details were currently not possible, according to the Swiss News Agency.

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