The U.S. economy regularly improves between October and April, this year additionally fueled by “unlimited” quantitative easing, weaker gas prices and higher competitiveness thanks to a stronger Chinese yuan and weaker Asian economies. Update 2013: The Case-Shiller index continued to climb in April 2013; it became clear that this year the “Sell in May” …
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Submitted by Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy, Brown Brothers Harriman The US dollar rose against all the major currencies in the past week. It seems clear that the greenback’s gains were not a reflection of domestic developments, though it is true that US data stands in stark contrast with nearly every other major country. …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/currency-positioning-and-technical-outlook-dollar-correction-at-hand/
Submitted by Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy, Brown Brothers Harriman The US dollar rose against all the major currencies in the past week. It seems clear that the greenback’s gains were not a reflection of domestic developments, though it is true that US data stands in stark contrast with nearly every other major country. …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/net-speculative-positions-technical-forecast-march04/
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The official talk around the G7 statement and the G20 meeting generated a great deal of needless noise in the foreign exchange room. It is almost like a librarian yelling “Quiet”. It may be more disruptive than the initial noise. With the meetings out of the way, we expect …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/net-speculative-positions-feb-17/
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com Last week the euro was the weakest of the major currencies and the recently beaten up sterling and yen were the strongest. A similar pattern was also evident in the dollar-bloc. The New Zealand dollar had been the strongest and last week had was the weakest, with the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/net-speculative-positions-technical-forecast-week-february9/
The U.S. economy regularly improves between October and April, this year additionally fueled by “indefinite” quantitative easing, weaker gas prices and higher competitiveness thanks to a stronger Chinese yuan and weaker Asian economies.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/sell-in-may-come-back-in-october/
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The main drivers of the foreign exchange market have strengthened. This means that the current trends, especially euro strength and yen, sterling and dollar bloc weakness are likely to persist. The recent price action will likely reinforce the trader behavior of buying euros on pullbacks and selling into bounces …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/net-speculative-positions-week-february-4/
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com It is difficult to talk about the US dollar’s performance over the past couple of weeks. There has been a key divergence. The dollar has been trading higher against most currencies except the euro and those currencies, like the Swiss franc or the Scandis, that move in the euro’s …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/net-speculative-positions-week-january-21-2/
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The technical tone of the major foreign currencies deteriorated in recent days. It appears to be a cascading effect. Favorite risk-on currencies, like the dollar-bloc, failed to participate in the move against the greenback. The Swiss franc took the dubious honor of being the weakest currency last week, losing 2.2% …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/net-speculative-positions-week-january-21/
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com There have been some large moves in the foreign exchange market in recent days. The euro posted its largest rally in four months last week. The yen has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar since June 2010 and extended the declining streak to nine consecutive weeks, something …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/net-speculative-positions-january-14/
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Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The US Dollar Index bottomed on September 14, the day after QE3+ was announced. It reached a 2-month high before the weekend. It has now retraced half of the ground lost from ECB President Draghi’s pledge to “to do whatever it takes” through hints, and then delivery, of …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/11/net-speculative-positions-nov-19/
Trend Follower Ashraf Laidi Loses Against the Contrarian Investor SNB The currency strategist Ashraf Laidi recently evoked a EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.35 thanks to the risk appetite after the easing operations of the Fed and the ECB. We show that he and the masses of his Forex rooters actually traded against a big central …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/how-the-snb-destroyed-ashraf-laidis-eurusd-1-35-party/
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The US Dollar Index reached its best level in more than six weeks on Friday. Yet it managed to only close a couple of ticks higher, as if warning short-term participants against ideas that a breakout is at hand. This also appears to be the message of the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/net-speculative-positions-global-stock-markets-week-october-29/
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com Our big picture view is that the US dollar is carving out an important bottom, after selling off in Q3 as policy makers moved to reduce the extreme tail risks. The position adjustment that inspired among investors appears to have largely run its course.This bottoming of the dollar is …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/net-speculative-positions-global-stock-markets-october-22/
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week October 15 Market participants have to confront a stark asymmetry. There are many ways to lose money, but there appears to be only three ways to make money. Nearly all strategies seem to come down to some variant …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/three-main-forex-strategies/
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The Price of Protection We have been tracking the deterioration in the technical condition of the major foreign currencies in this weekly note for the past three weeks. The euro’s recovery, off the support we identified here last week near $1.2800, should not overshadow the fact that the dollar’s …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/net-speculative-positions-fx-outlook-global-stocks-week-october-8/
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com If the third quarter was about the reduction of tail-risk by official actions, then Q4 will be about the limitations of the policy response. It will pose a challenging investment climate after what turned out to be a favorable performance in Q3. Equities generally did well. The US …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/net-speculative-positions-fx-outlook-global-stock-markets-week-october1/
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The days ahead will help clarify whether the US dollar’s somewhat firmer tone last week was simply corrective in nature, before a new leg lower, or the carving out of a bottom of a downtrend that began in June against most of the major currencies and July for the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/net-speculative-positions-fx-outlook-global-stock-markets-week-september-24/
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com Nearly every development in recent days has been embraced by the foreign exchange market as a reason to continue to do what it has been doing since late July, and that is to sell the dollar. The German Constitutional Court ruling, allowing the European Stability Mechanism to …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/net-speculative-positions-fx-outlook-september-17/
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The outcome of the FOMC meeting is not just a new round of quantitative easing, some might call it QE3. What the Fed announced represents a new chapter in its policy response. The first distinguishing aspect of its decision is the open-ended nature of it. While it has not indicated …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/not-simply-qe3/
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com Key policy makers are preparing new efforts to address the deterioration of financial and economic conditions. This is seen reducing tail risks, which allowed the rally in risk assets to be extended, and undermined the dollar. China is providing new fiscal support. The ECB announced its new Outright Market …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/net-speculative-positions-week-september-10/
In this post we show that the risks the Fed, the ECB and the Bundesbank incur are far smaller than the one the Swiss SNB takes. The Fed has “just” an inflation risk, that could cost 200 billion US$, 1.2% of US GDP. The ECB and Bundesbank have the risk that the euro zone splits …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/the-big-swiss-faustian-bargain/
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The week ahead kicks off what we expect to be a period of intense event risk. The combination of positioning, judging from the futures market and anecdotal reports, and the low implied volatility in currencies and equity markets warn of heightened risk in the period ahead. The week begins …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/net-speculative-positions-and-technical-outlook-september-3rd/
The Jackson Hole Symposium is traditionally a meeting of global central bankers, here the 2010 attendance list. This year it takes place between August 30 and September 1. Central bankers assemble The annual economic symposium for central bankers staged by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City begins in Jackson Hole, Colorado (until September 1). …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/snb-not-at-jackson-hole/
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com There are two main drivers behind the price action in the foreign exchange market and they will likely persist in the days ahead. First, there continues to be position adjustment ahead of the what promises to be eventful few weeks. Second, the release of the minutes from the August 1 …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/net-speculative-positioning-aug-27/
Here a follow-up of our contribution on Seeking Alpha written on August 15th, with the title “Are Markit PMIs really reliable?“. We recommended to go long the euro and the Swiss franc against the US dollar and sterling, because the Markit PMIs were not in line with trade balance data. Previously we suggested in …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/why-the-euro-has-recovered/
Currency Positioning and Outlook, week from August 20 Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The market is like expectant parents who don’t know the gender of the fetus. They know something big is around the corner, but they don’t have enough information to make some important decisions. They can contemplate the future, but there …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/currency-positioning-and-outlook-week-from-august-20/
updated August 05,2012 We publish a detailed analysis of global PMIs and compare them with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD some days after most PMIs came out. Abstract: Thanks to positive US consumer confidence, stock markets are highly valued, whereas the Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) for the manufacturing industry are contracting …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/global-pmis-by-august-05/
Currency Positioning and Technical Analysis, week from August6 Submitted by Marc Chandler from MarctoMarkets.com The overall technical tone of the US dollar is suspect. During the last few months, it has been trending lower against the dollar-bloc currencies, Canadian and Australian dollars and the Mexican peso. The greenback has trended higher against the euro and Swiss …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/currency-positioning-aug6/
More Chatter About The EUR/CHF Peg The FT reports that Switzerland is ‘new China’ in currencies Chatter that the SNB was buying 3 billion francs worth of euros per day. “The picture is one of a central bank that’s not coping with how much money is coming in,” said Kit Juckes, foreign currency analyst at Société …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/july-2012/
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reported a profit of 6.5 billion Swiss Franc for the first half year (H1). After a loss of 1.7 bln. francs in the first quarter (Q1), it had a 8.2 billion profit for the second quarter (Q2). The Q2 SNB results of 8.2 bln. CHF were less than our …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/snb-reports-6-5-billion-profit-for-h1-8-2-billion-q2/
On July 31st the Swiss National Bank will publish interim results for the second quarter 2012. Already now we offer an estimate to our readers. Our estimate does not cover the central bank’s Forex trading results, they are difficult to estimate. A central bank is not a day trader, therefore the influence should be limited. …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/snb-results-q2-first-estimate/
Currency Outlook and Positioning: Week from July 16
Guest Post from Marc Chandler
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/guest-post-currency-outlook-and-positioning-week-from-july-16/
Slowing energy prices (MoM -4.2%) and seasonal effects for clothes and footwear (MoM -2.8%) drove Switzerland in a slight deflation on monthly basis again.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/switzerland-mom-deflation-cheaper-energy-clothes/
updated July 4,2012 This page inside our macro data menu contains global PMIs compared with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD as of the day after most PMIs came out. JP Morgan’s Global PMI: Click for details inside the table, History of composite PMI
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/global-macro-with-all-global-pmis-july-4th/
SNB In A Bind With Euro Holdings Today’s reserve data showed skyrocketing reserves at the Swiss National Bank as they defend the EUR/CHF floor. Reserves were at 365B francs at the end of Q2 compared to 245B at the end of March, with all the growth coming in the final two months of the quarter …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/june-2012/
How the SNB Chairman Jordan has invited hedge funds and smart investors to a risk-free, high-return guaranteed investment in Swiss francs A wrap-up of Swiss newspapers for non-German literates In parallel to the start of the UEFA Euro 2012, the Swiss National Bank and its policy towards the EUR/CHF exchange rate has become a political …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/the-swiss-national-bank-and-the-eurchf-floor-have-become-a-political-football/
The “Sell in May, come back in October” effect It is the same seasonal anomaly nearly every year: The statistically flawed (see here and here) Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report delivers some good winter readings with 200K new jobs, this time additionally fuelled by a weather effect; biased data that let hard-core Keynesian policy makers doubt Okun’s law. Consequently the stock markets rally …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/snb-sell-in-may-come-back-in-october/
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From Barnaul, Siberia, Russia Inna, 28, is a high-school teacher, she has one child. Her monthly salary is 8’500 Russian Rubel, about 257 USD. Similarly as many state employees her salary is very low. Recently the state doubled the salary of policemen and soldiers from 20’000 RUB to 40’000 RUB. A main reason was that …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/the-latest-bubble-real-estate-in-russia/
FT A Wee Bit Late To The Party… Notices Europeans have been buying Swiss francs and dollars. Who knew? By Jamie Coleman || May 30, 2012 at 19:43 GMT AUD/USD, NZD/USD Dragged Higher As EUR Recovers As Gerry mentioned earlier, the talk of a rescue fund for EZ banks seems to have set off some short covering …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/may-2012/
There are currently rumors going on on CNBC that the SNB is planning something this night. As we explained here, the SNB had to strongly restart the printing press and printed tremendous 13 bln francs in one week. Moreover, they probably sold some of their in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 acquired GBP, JYP and …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/cnbc-rumors-that-something-is-going-on-at-snb-6-possibilities-for-us/
As explained in our previous post, at least till May 4th the Swiss National Bank could have been a net buyer of GBP, USD and JPY selling Euros off their balance sheet. In the week of May 11, QE3 talk came up together with a bad Phily Fed reading. From then the SNB had to acquire …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/snb-switched-from-selling-euros-to-buying-euros/
Just some simple words about the vicious cycle of the US economy and the consequences on the US dollar: A stronger USD will not rescue the US economy, quite the contrary. US companies will not hire in the US, but outsource or hire overseas. If they hire in the US, due to the high number …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/the-vicious-cycle-of-the-us-economy-or-why-the-us-dollar-must-ultimately-fall-again/
A former SNB chief economist says that capital controls are impossible, just empty words. In case of a Euro break-up the Swissie must rise together with USD, GBP and JPY An article, surprisingly from the usually left-wing Tagesanzeiger, more or less closely translated with some additional remarks.
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We reckon that the central bank has introduced an automatic peg mechanism which obliges them to buy euros at exactly 1.2010 and sell euros above this level (reasons and details here). If they sold more euros than they bought, they are happy to have offloaded some items of their overloaded balance sheet. If they bought more euros than they sold, however, there are some “superfluous” euros. Instead putting these euros on their balance sheet, they might sell these superfluous euros against the other SDR currencies USD, GBP and JPY, which pushes the euro down against this currency basket – something that German and Swiss exporters will appreciate.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/is-the-snb-pegging-away-from-the-euro-versus-the-sdr-currency-basket-using-their-fx-reserves/
EUR/GBP: If You Want To Know Why Its Falling, Have A Look At The SNB Thanks Goose for the reminder that the SNB released figures on its FX reserves holdings and these showed a marked increase in GBP holdings. This has been a constant theme over the last few weeks/months, the SNB buys EUR/CHF in the marketplace …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/04/april-2012/
4 future scenarios for the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen For many people it is astonishing that the Swiss franc continuously rises against the euro, especially when markets are up. Is the CHF no safe-haven any more ? This year the Japanese yen has strongly fallen against the major currencies. Together with the upturn …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/04/why-is-the-swiss-safe-haven-so-completely-different-from-the-yen/
Nomura Touts EUR/CHF Longs Strategists there advise going long around the current levels, they say the floor will not break. They target 1.24. I have to agree. To me, it’s a question of buying low or buying a bit lower. By Adam Button || March 30, 2012 at 14:50 GMT EUR/CHF Touches One-Month Low Bounced off …
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Abstract: Basic foreign exchange theory, the SNB price stability mandate and strong fundamentals for Switzerland and bad ones for the peripheral countries of the euro zone speak for the thesis that the EUR/CHF exchange rate might never go over the level of around 1.22 or 1.23 again. Therefore the SNB will need to think about …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/02/will-the-eurchf-never-rise-over-1-22-again/
EUR/CHF Busy Doing Jack; Jordan Gobbing Off Later EUR/CHF sits at 1.2048, some 7 pips easier from when I started out. Barrier option interest sits at 1.2025 and ofcourse 1.2000. SNB interim head honcho Jordan speaks later this evening (18:30 GMT) in Zurich. Might be giving instructions on how to make his favourite alpine muesli …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/02/february-2012/
1.2034 The EUR/CHF Low As Risk-Off Resumes 1.2025 barrier supposedly in play while the 1.2000 peg below will act as a magnet if broken. There is something about the forex mindset that prompts markets to reach out and touch things that are not meant to be touched. EUR/US fell to 1.3063, triggering a few …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/01/january-2012/
After the announcement of the floor in the EUR/CHF pair, many predicted the Swedish and the Norwegian Krone to take the place of the Swiss Franc as European save-haven against the Euro turmoil (http://on.ft.com/pKSJ1V). Both countries possess a low level of debt, positive trade balance and very competitive economies.
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Four Trades For 2012: #2 Sell The Swiss Franc I bought EUR/CHF shortly after the 1.20 peg was introduced and have held it ever since. My only regret has not been trading the range more aggressively. At this point everyone has an opinion of the SNB so I won’t try to convince the bears. Personally, …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2011/12/december-2011/
Many participants in the FX markets seem to be sure that the SNB will lift the EUR/CHF flow to 1.25 Here the pros and the cons:
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October 2011 Looks Like Market Exercising The Free EUR Put The SNB Bought For It EUR/CHF has been under pressure for the the last two weeks despite Herculean efforts by the EU/IMF to bailout the euro zone. It looks as if the market is taking up the SNB on its offer the buy unlimited …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2011/10/october-2011/
SNB Spotted In The Cross Today… Traders say the SNB was seen on the bid in lumpy size on the quick slide toward 1.2120 shortly after the open of US equity cash markets at 13:30. We’ve quickly bounced to 1.2170. By Jamie Coleman || September 30, 2011 at 14:20 GMT Category: All, Americas, Mkt Talk, Regions || Tags: EUR/CHF || 0 comments || Add …
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EUR/CHF Kicked Lower Again Hitting a new low this week of 1.1545 and is down over 300 pips on the day. The moved largely initiated by a major swiss name earlier apparently in conjunction with a hedge fund. Comments from the Swiss Econ Min over the last hour hardly helping matters, after the govt aid package …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2011/08/august-2011/
ForexLive Asian Market Open EUR/USD is trading around 1.4390 and USD/JPY is at 77.20 as the market awaits the latest developments out of Washington. Risk pairs like EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF are likely to be whippy this morning as the headlines hit the newswires. Good luck out there. By Sean Lee || July 31, 2011 at 20:49 …
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Specs Scrambling For Cover In EUR/CHF The Armageddon trade is being taken off in dramatic size in thin-month-end markets, driving EUR/CHF above 1.2200. USD/CHF is nearing resistance at 0.8440. Traders not talk of significant interest from real money accounts to buy both USD/CHF and USD/JPY at the fixing at 15:00 GMT. The danger now is …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2011/06/june-2011/
Extracts from the history of the Swiss franc (June 2011) Jun. 23rd 2011 According to conventional market wisdom, there are three safe haven currencies: the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and US Dollar. It is to these currencies that investors flock whenever there is a crisis, or merely an outbreak of uncertainty, and for much …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2011/06/the-swiss-franc-is-the-only-safe-haven-currency-june-2011/
Extracts from the history of the Swiss Franc (June 2011) Jun. 6th 2011 Last week, the Wall Street Journal published an article entitled, “Currency Correlations Lose Their Way for Now.” My response: It depends on which currencies you’re looking at. I, too, recently posted about the break-down of multi-year correlations, specifically involving the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2011/06/how-to-trade-the-franc-yen-dollar-correlation-june-2011/
May 2011 ForexLive Asian Market Open: Analysis With Fries Just brilliant Jamie Australian GDP this morning and the market is now gearing itself for a poor number after yesterday’s data and weekend comments from the Treasurer. China is selling rallies in AUD/USD and Middle East Sovereigns are buying big dips; sounds like a recipe for medium …
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March 2011 Swiss KOF Leading Growth Indicator 2.24 In March Up from revised 2.19 in February (initial 2.18.) Stronger than median forecast of 2.15. Bit of a surprise. EUR/CHF lower, presently at 1.2978. By Gerry Davies || March 30, 2011 at 09:39 GMT EUR/USD: Look To The Crosses For Guidance EUR/JPY has made a significant move …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2011/03/march-2011/
February 2011 EUR/USD Outlook EUR/CHF looks like its forming important technical support at 1.2700 and should go higher. EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY are best described as choppy but the EUR/AUD is also exhibiting some ‘basing’ tendencies. With the USD in sell mode, the path of least resistance for EUR/USD would seem to be up. It will not …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2011/02/february-2011/
Feb. 6th 2011 Extracts from the history of the Swiss franc (February 2011) The second half of 2010 witnessed a 20% rise in the Swiss Franc (against the US Dollar), which experienced an upswing more closely associated with equities than with currencies. It has managed to entrench itself well above parity with the Dollar, and …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2011/02/has-the-swiss-franc-reached-its-limit-february-2011/
ForexLive Asian Market Open: Risk Aversion To The Fore Fears of an escalation of the troubles in Egypt and a possible spread throughout the region have led to some risk aversion in early interbank trade. EUR/JPY is trading at 111.40 after closing at 111.75 on Friday night, USD/JPY is trading just below 82.00, and EUR/CHF …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2011/01/january-2011/
Hildebrand Unable To Unload ‘Burden’ Of Record Franc As GDP Seen Slowing Bloomberg article. EUR/CHF down at 1.2595 from early 1.2635. Just reading UBS forex strategists say they are bearish the cross, focusing on 1.2439 ahead of 1.2283. They see resistance at 1.2714. They also forecast a fall in USD/CHF. See break through support at …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2010/12/december-2010/
Dec. 29th 2010 Extracts from the history of the Swiss franc (December 2010) In the last two weeks, the Swiss Franc rose to record highs against not one, not two, but three major currencies: the US Dollar, Euro, and British Pound. The Franc is now entrenched well above parity against the Dollar, and is …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2010/12/swiss-franc-surges-to-record-high-december-2010/
EUR/CHF Continues Lower Presently down at 1.3055 from early 1.3090, having been as low as 1.3037 so far. Earlier I was reading comments made by UBS economist Huenerwadel, who said “At least from a fundamental point of view and aware of the increased long CHF positioning, very little speaks in favour of a materially higher EUR/CHF …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2010/11/november-2011/
EUR/CHF Up On Day; Talk Of 1.3700 Option Interest EUR/CHF up at 1.3680 from early 1.3635. Talk of 1.3700 option interest. Guess we should expect some defensive selling to kick in then. By Gerry Davies || October 27, 2010 at 09:11 GMT Cititechs Cut Long EUR/GBP Position As I wrote yesterday, I thought this was a bad …
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Cable Showing Signs Of Tiredness Cable rallied above 1.5900 in the early European rush to sell EUR/GBP but the sharp fall since doesn’t bode well for the short term bulls. I personally have exited most of my long position and will look to reinstate towards 1.5500. GBP/CHF once again halted at the major 1.5360 low …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2010/09/september-2010/
Sep. 9th 2010 Extracts from the history of the Swiss franc (September 2010) In the year-to-date, the Swiss Franc has risen 3% against the Dollar, 15% against the Euro, and more than 5% on a trade-weighted basis. It recently touched a record low against the Euro, and is closing in on parity with the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2010/09/swiss-franc-touches-record-high-nears-parity-september-2010/
ForexLive Asian Market Open: CHF, JPY Up; GBP Down EUR/CHF will begin the new month at fresh record lows and this may encourage some of the bigger macro funds to join in the rout, those that aren’t already involved that is. I think it was Paul Tudor-Jones who said that his best trades often came …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2010/08/august-2010/
EUR/CHF Hit Again EUR/CHF has been hit again, down at 1.3535 from early 1.3580. Recently there has been talk of the Swiss National Bank selling the cross, something I for one certainly can’t substantiate. Also yesterday there were rumours of a September rate hike in Switzerland. All very murky. The EUR/CHF cross selling has helped pressure EUR/USD, which is …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2010/07/july-2010/
EUR/CHF Firmer EUR/CHF up at 1.3260 from early 1.3210. Move comes as Hungary official says government plans loan deal with IMF. Large German name seen buying the cross. By Gerry Davies || June 30, 2010 at 06:45 GMT Euro Profit Taking Rebound The euro has found some buying support across the board on profit taking. I …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2010/06/june-2010/
ForexLive Asian Market Open: EUR Worries Return The big Sovereign players couldn’t get enough of the EUR when it was at 1.40 and now it looks like they can’t get out quick enough. The BIS has been a regular seller on behalf of other central banks, the SNB are quietly trying to offload what they …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2010/05/may-2010/
April 2010 Quick Look At The Order Books AUD/USD: stops below .9135 and again below .9070 USD/JPY: solid bids 92.70, stops below 92.40, heavy semi-official bids expected at 91.50 ( I’m hearing of “massive” stops below 90.50 so if market gets on a roll lower keep this level in mind) EUR/USD: looks like the order …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2010/04/april-2010/
, March 2010 Big Barrier Eyed In EUR/CHF Traders report a large barrier option is in play at the 1.4200 level in EUR/CHF. Nothing attracts price action like a big barrier. The owner of the option wants to protect his investment while the bank that sold the option wants to knock it out to erase …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2010/03/march-2010/
January, February 2010 EUR/CHF Steady As A Rock EUR/CHF sits at 1.4632, seeing very steady trade. I guess we should note that the SNB quite likes intervening on a Friday. By Gerry Davies || February 26, 2010 at 08:19 GMT Rumours Of SNB Help EUR/CHF Higher The EUR/CHF has popped from 1.4630 to 1.4675 on rumours …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2010/02/jan-feb-2010/
December 2009 EUR/CHF Selling Off EUR/CHF is down at 1.4835 from an early 1.4865, the swissy bulls happy to probe for signs of meaningful SNB interest. Many are voicing surprise at the lack of interest being show by the Swiss National Bank to curtail the recent burgeoning swissy strength. There is talk of 1.4800 barrier …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2009/12/december-2009/
A market view history of the EUR/CHF from the website ForexLive October 2009 Cue The Jaws Music EUR/CHF is trading below 1.5100, presently at 1.5090, very nearly at 1.5o80 where the SNB is last said to have intervened………. More Signs Of US And Global Recovery The US GDP number was yet another sign of a global economic recovery …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2009/10/october-2009/
A market view history of the EUR/CHF from the website ForexLive September 2009 Market Settles Down After More NZD-Led Volatility As Jamie said earlier, it’s amazing that an economy half the size of Norway’s can lead the market by the nose and it has now done so for the second successive day. NZD/USD rose almost …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2009/10/september-2009/
A market view history of the EUR/CHF from the website ForexLive August 2009 Swiss KOF Leading Indicator Much Stronger Than Expected The Swiss KOF leading indicator for August has come in at -0.04 from a revised -0.85 in July, much stronger than the median forecast of -0.60. The indicator’s m/m rise in August is the strongest …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2009/08/august-2009/
A market view history of the EUR/CHF from the website ForexLive July 2009 EURCHF Offers 1.5250 Im hearing that EURCHF offers at 1.5250 are lined up ready to defend the level. There was an attempt to take it higher on Friday after the German IFO number but failed. 1.5250 is proving to be quite a level. …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2009/07/july-2009/
A market view history of the EUR/CHF from the website ForexLive June 2009 Don’t Get Too Fancy- Most Of The Clues Are Face-Up On The Table EUR/USD: big option play has tied the market in for the last 2 weeks and there are 2 more to go we believe. 1.3750/1.4250 range on the wide but …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2009/06/june-2009/
A market view history of the EUR/CHF from the website ForexLive May 2009 BIS And SNB Expected To Be Buying EUR/CHF On 1.50 Handle Dealers expect to see bids appearing from either the Swiss National Bank or the Bank for International Settlements if EUR/CHF dips back towards 1.5050. By Sean Lee || May 28, 2009 at 04:03 …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2009/05/may-2009/
A history of the EUR/CHF from the website ForexLive April 2009 Selling EUR/CHF Seems Akin To Poking Billy Goat Gruff With A Sharp Stick It seems to me selling the EUR/CHF cross down here is akin to poking the elder billy goat gruff with a sharp stick. You get it, Alpine meadows, goat herds….(Ok I know …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2009/04/april-2009/
A history of the EUR/CHF from the website ForexLive March 2009 Be Warned, April Fools Day Don’t believe everything you hear today as somebody might be having you on! The CHF is making a comeback and it’s imminent demise, which I have been forecasting, is obviously greatly exaggerated. EUR/CHF is back under 1.5100 and no sign …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2009/03/march-2009/
Swissy Sees Some Slight Improvement Swissy is seeing some slight improvement in afternoon trade, the EUR/CHF cross presently down at 1.4900 from the 1.4990 session high posted earlier. The general flight to perceived safety, with gold fast approaching $1,000, will be playing a part with swissy’s safe haven premium coming into play. However how …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2009/02/january-february-2009/
