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US Economic Indicators

The coincident economic indicators for the American economy can be seen in full details at Doug Short/Advisor Perspectives

We will give concise view, some insights and give a three-years history.

Big Four History

2014 detailed data

Doug Short May 2014

2013 detailed  data


2012 detailed data

Big 4 Indicators Doug Short

Big 4 Indicators: Industrial production, retail sales, real income

Real income has risen far more slowly than industrial production, overtime work

Real income has risen far more slowly than industrial production. Companies are increasing profits, the US is becoming more productive. Productivity comes from both higher production and slowly increasing real wages, hence the US is becoming more “Chinese”. A point which is not covered in Doug’s charts is that real income per hour is not rising.


Employment cannot cope up with population growth, creates a split society

Employment remains subdued. It cannot cope up with population growth even adjusted for ageing effects.

This leads to a split American society:

  • entrepreneurs, stock owners, well qualified people
  • the ones with negative real increases in income,
  • the ones without work (the “not in labor force has increased by 8.5 million since 2008) and/or the ones who live on foodstamps (from 31.1 in 2008 to 47.6 million)

Read more: Labor Participation Rates: Falling in the Ageing U.S., Rising in Ageing Germany

Real sales are rising more quickly than real income: Deficit spending

Real sales is rising more quickly than real income: Last but not least thanks to the Fed’s actions, Americans are deficit spending again.


George Dorgan,

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are not intended to be taken as investment advice. It is to be taken as opinion only and we encourage you to complete your own due diligence when making an investment decision. Even if we often write about Forex trading, our advices aren't written for day traders who follow technical channels, but rather for mid- and long-term investors. Our aim is to show discrepancies between fundamental data and current asset valuations, which can lead in mid-term to an inversion to technical channels.



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