Swiss inflation unchanged in April against March. The inflation difference between the Euro area and Switzerland on a new low. While in early 2012 it was near 4%, if has shrunk now to 1.6%. Details
Category Archive: Swiss & Euro Macro
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/05/swiss-inflation-unchanged-difference-euro-area-to-switzerland-down-to-1-6/
March Swiss Inflation Up 0.2% MoM, Down -0.6% YoY
Swiss inflation edged up 0.2% MoM when seasonal effects on clothes and footware were corrected. On a year basis, the CPI fell by 0.6%. Major reason were the falling energy prices, details
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/04/swiss-inflation-up-0-2-mom-down-0-6-yoy/
Swiss Current Account Surplus Rises from 8.5% to 13.5% of GDP
According to latest IMF data the Swiss current account surplus rose from 49 billion CHF in 2011 to 80 billion in 2012, this is from 8.5% of GDP to 13.5%. Details
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/swiss-current-account-surplus-rises-from-8-5-to-13-5-of-gdp/
Swiss Economic Indicators, March 2013
Switzerland continues to see a robust economy, even if the leading KOF indicator fell to 0.99 after highs of 1.68 in September. On other side, real and nominal wages continue to increase. As opposed to the KOF value, the UBS consumption indicator is rising. This shows that the internal economy is able to balance …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/swiss-economic-indicators-march-2013/
The Inflationary Cycle in Developed Countries Has Just Started in Germany
Even if many speak about deflation in Europe, we rather think that continuing better data from the United States will help euro zone inflation to bottom out soon, especially because Germany and some other Northern nations will exhibit rising prices. More about Currencies in Northern Europe While inflation, higher wages and capital outflows in …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/new-inflationary-cycle-starts-in-germany/
Difference between Eurozone and Swiss Inflation Rates Continues to Shrink
The gap has fallen from 3.7% in February 2012 to 2.1%. Swiss CPI is rising on monthly basis, but still negative with 0.3% YoY.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/difference-swiss-and-eurozone-inflation-rate/
Credit Suisse Study: Swiss Real Estate Market Needs Higher Rates
A new study by Credit Suisse claims that the SNB needs to hike interest rates in order to avoid excessive risk taking in real estate markets; in particular around the centers of Geneva and Zurich, but also in the Southern Swiss cantons with lower income, but high real estate prices. More details
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/credit-suisse-study-swiss-real-estate-market-needs-higher-rates/
Is the Swiss Capital Account Able to Neutralise the Persistent Current Account Surpluses?
We reckon that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will have issues maintaining the EUR/CHF floor in the longer term, because the expected yields on Swiss investments abroad will not be sufficiently higher than the yield on investments in Switzerland. Therefore, outflows in the capital account of the Swiss balance of payments cannot cover the persistent …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/swiss-capital-account-neutralise-current-account-surpluses/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/euro-zone-swiss-macro/swiss-trade-surplus/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/euro-zone-swiss-macro/latest-swiss-inflation-details/
Finally the Countercyclical Capital Buffer, Comparing Lending and Money: Switzerland, Euro Zone
Comparing Private Credit and Money Supply between Switzerland and the Euro Zone The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has decided to propose the establishment of the countercyclical capital buffer to the Swiss government, at last. A first step in preventing the Swiss asset bubble.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/the-countercyclical-capital-buffer-is-finally-there/
Switzerland’s Slow Way to Inflation
UPDATE February 2013 inflation data: The inflation figures for February showed the upwards movement we expected. On monthly basis inflation rose by 0.3%. The Swiss CPI is getting closer and closer to the one of the euro zone. We explain the January 2013 data on Swiss inflation and indicate which components drive the consumer …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/switzerlands-slow-way-to-inflation/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/euro-zone-swiss-macro/eurozone-pmis/
Yearly Swiss Doomsaying and Swissmem’s Control over the Swiss National Bank
The same as every year in December/January: Swiss media and economists are doomsaying. This time they claim that the banking industry and the UBS job losses will bring Switzerland into trouble. Once again they do not understand that the Great Recession was only to a small part a banking crisis, but it was mostly a …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/swiss-doomsaying/
Swiss Public Discussion Switched from Floor to Housing Bubble
Why there is no real estate bubble in Switzerland yet and why the SNB will help to create one With the current recovery in the United States the discussion in Switzerland switched from a discussion about the EUR/CHF floor to the Swiss real estate boom, the so-called “housing bubble”. It seems that the Swiss …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/swiss-discussion-from-floor-housing-bubble/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/euro-zone-swiss-macro/swiss-statistical-dashboard/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/euro-zone-swiss-macro/swiss-purchasing-manager-index/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/euro-zone-swiss-macro/chf-trade-weighted-index/
The Swiss Trade Surplus Unveiled
Update December 3, 2012 After 14 months of successful currency manipulation, the SNB has driven the Swiss SVME PMI, an index dominated by machinery and electronics exporters, to 48.5, five points above the Swedish PMI, four points above the French one and nearly two points above the German PMI. The machinery and electronics exporters were …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/all-about-the-swiss-trade-surplus/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/euro-zone-swiss-macro/swiss-inflation/
Downwards and Upwards Drivers of Swiss Inflation
For many economists, monetary expansion and rising asset prices have an effect on price inflation. One of these economists is SNB’s former chairman Hildebrand. He showed in 2004 that a period of inflation had regularly followed the SNB’s monetary expansion in response to the rise of the franc. Swiss consumer price inflation has not yet followed …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/downwards-and-upwards-drivers-of-swiss-inflation/
Swiss and German Economic Indicators, Update November 1
Euro Crisis Has Affected Germany, Switzerland Still Immune Most Recent Events The Swiss SVME PMI has risen from 43.9 to 46.1. This PMI is dominated by machinery, metallurgical and electric equipment exporters organized in the Swissmem organization. As opposed to the chemical industry, they were not innovative enough to adapt to the stronger franc; but …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/11/euro-crisis-has-affected-germany-switzerland-still-immune-update-november-1/
Euro Crisis Has Affected Germany, Switzerland Still Immune
Swiss and German Economic Indicators, October 2012 Both Swiss and German economic indicators show continued signs of stability, but the German situation has become worse and might affect the Swiss. Especially low unemployment, rising real wages and strong trade balances are signs of robustness. Despite that, Germany’s industrial production is weaker than last year, the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/euro-crisis-affected-germany-switzerland-still-immune/
Swiss Exports Rise Thanks to Higher Export Prices. Sorry, What ????
Or how Swiss exporters are able to widen their margins thanks to the SNB currency manipulation Last week the Swiss export data for the third quarter was released. The news agency report was simple: Exports from Switzerland fell by a real 8.0 percent in September to 16.49 billion Swiss francs ($17.87 billion), the Federal …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/swiss-exports-rise-thanks-to-higher-export-prices/
Will the EUR/CHF fall like a stone? A perfect scalp ?
Recently we have observed the upward movement of all euro pairs. They have marked more or less continuously higher highs and higher lows thanks to massive support from the central banks ECB, Fed and SNB (ignore Sunday 16th) The first euro pair to finish this upwards trend is traditionally the EUR/CHF. …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/will-eur-chf-fall-like-a-stone/
Are German Bunds finally heading for the big slide ?
Citibank judges that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) does not need a peg anymore. The EUR/CHF exchange rate would be now over 1.20 even if exposed to the free market. Yesterday we showed that the upward move in the EUR/CHF is just the behavior of some euphoric Forex traders. In the meantime we see a completely …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/german-bunds-big-slide/
Economic Indicators: In Switzerland and Germany the Euro Crisis Seems to Be Far Away
Swiss vs. German Economic Indicators, August 2012 Both Swiss and German economic indicators show continued signs of stability. Especially low unemployment, good retail sales and strong trade balances are signs of robustness. The German trade surplus has improved compared to last year, whereas the strong franc harmed the Swiss trade surplus just a bit. …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/euro-crisis-far-away/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/euro-zone-swiss-macro/
German Schatz turns negative again
After the first time End May, the German Schatz turns negative:
German June 2014 Schatz Average Yield -0.06% vs 0.10% on June 20
Swiss Eidgenossen 2yrs still at -0.4%
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/germanschatzturnnegativeagain/
Switzerland in MoM deflation due to cheaper energy and clothes
Slowing energy prices (MoM -4.2%) and seasonal effects for clothes and footwear (MoM -2.8%) drove Switzerland in a slight deflation on monthly basis again.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/switzerland-mom-deflation-cheaper-energy-clothes/
Spread Swiss Eidgenossen vs. German Bund to see further gains
The spread between the Swiss government Eidgenossen bond against the Germany 10yrs. Bund will see further gain in the future, after the Euro summit opened the door for ESM direct financing of banks. Differences between EFSF and ESM explained
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/spread-swiss-eidgenossen-vs-german-bund-to-see-further-gains/
The other risk for the SNB: Will German Bund yields double ?
In the latest post we started discussing the implications of a German euro exit for the Swiss National Bank, this time we will look on another risk: The rising German Bund yields.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/the-other-risk-for-the-snb-will-german-bund-yields-double/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/euro-zone-swiss-macro/government-bonds/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/euro-zone-swiss-macro/swiss-economic-data/
Why is the Swiss safe-haven so completely different from the Yen ?
4 future scenarios for the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen For many people it is astonishing that the Swiss franc continuously rises against the euro, especially when markets are up. Is the CHF no safe-haven any more ? This year the Japanese yen has strongly fallen against the major currencies. Together with the upturn …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/04/why-is-the-swiss-safe-haven-so-completely-different-from-the-yen/
Swiss Inflation, GDP, Monetary Base between 1974 and 2000
Some background statistics on the Swiss monetary policy in the 1970s from Swiss Monetary Targeting 1974-1996: The role of internal policy analysis. More details and monthly data on inflation here.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2003/08/inflation-monetary-base-1970-and-2000/
