Category Archive: Swiss & #Euro #Macro

Swiss Housing Bubble: Twelve Reasons Why It Will Continue for another Decade

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/euro-zone-swiss-macro/swiss-housing-bubble/

The Swiss Radical Libertarian Party “UP Schweiz” Is Born

On June 18th, 2014, the new radical libertarian party UP!, “Unabhängigkeitspartei”, Independent Party was founded. The party is co-lead by the former head of the  Swiss young liberals, Brenda Mäder, the former head of the young liberals St. Gallen Simon Scherrer and by Silvan Amberg, the former leader of FDP’s homosexual association. The Swiss FDP is losing some of their brightest …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/06/swiss-radical-libertarian-up-schweiz/

Inflation Difference between Eurozone and Switzerland Narrows to 0.3%

According to Swiss Statistics the inflation rate has risen to 0.2% y/y – as for both the Swiss CPI standard and the European HICP standard.

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/06/inflation-difference-eurozone-switzerland-0-3/

Update 2014: Swiss home price to income ratio small in historic and global comparison

Based on four different data sources, we prove  that Swiss the home price to income ratio is small in global comparison and in a historic perspective. Combined with another decade of near zero interest rates, reason enough to think that the Swiss real estate boom should continue for another decade.

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/04/update-2014-swiss-home-price-income-ratio-small-historic-global-comparison/

Swiss Yearly Inflation Rate Overtakes First Eurozone Countries

  According to Swiss Statistics the yearly inflation rate is at 0.0%, and the monthly rate is +0.4%. The Spanish CPI is already under zero at -0.2%, and the Italian one is at +0.3%, not to speak about severe Cyprus or Greek deflation . Still in February 2012, the difference between the Swiss and Euro …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/04/swiss-inflation-rate-overtakes-first-eurozone-countries/

GDP: Switzerland Enters Boom and.. incredibly.. SNB is Still Printing Money

According to the latest data from the SECO,Swiss GDP rose by 0.2% in Q4/2013. Despite the relatively weak headline, the detailed data showed a couple of characteristics that speak for an upcoming boom. At the same time, the Swiss National Bank is printing money again: both the monetary base and money supply are increasing.

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/02/gdp-switzerland-enters-boom-snb-printing-money/

Swiss Yes to Referendum Against Mass Immigration is a Yes to Higher Salaries and Higher Inflation

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/euro-zone-swiss-macro/mass-immigration-swiss-inflation/

UBS Consumption Indicator Points to 2.5 Percent Swiss GDP Growth in 2014

FacebookShare As usual, the Swiss economy seems to be better than economists thought. After 1.40 still in December, the UBS consumption indicator has risen to 1.81, a value higher than the ones in 2012, when private consumption increased by 2.4%. Similarly as last year, the latest reading contradicts UBS’s own growth forecasts, albeit this year …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/01/ubs-consumption-indicator-2014/

Pros and Cons of the Swiss Countercyclical Capital Buffer

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Germany and the Currencies in Northern Europe

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Inflation Difference between Eurozone and Switzerland Narrows to 0.5%

Another five months till Swiss inflation is higher? When the European economy starts to expand again, who will hike rates first, the SNB or the ECB? December Update According to Swiss Statistics the inflation rate remained stable at 0.1% y/y, while the inflation measured by the European HICP standard was +0.3% y/y, slightly higher than …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/01/swiss-inflation/

Swiss GDP Details Compared to UK, USA, Germany, Japan and Australia, Q3 2013

The Swiss GDP was again one of the strongest major economies. The quarterly growth rate in the third quarter was 0.5%, the yearly one 1.9%. U.S. GDP improved by 3.6% QoQ annualized. For comparison purposes, our figures are not annualized; hence the equivalent is 0.9% QoQ. In Japan and Switzerland private consumption rose by 0.1% …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/12/swiss-gdp-q3-2013/

European Industrial Production Still Contracting, Switzerland Expanding Again

Swiss industrial production is rather insensitive to price changes and to the recent slowing of global demand thanks to the concentration on pharmaceuticals and luxury products.   Based on Eurostat’s industrial production for July and August , we compared the values from 2010 to 2013 for these two summer months. This aggregated two-months comparison is …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/10/industrial-production-europe-switzerland/

Swiss Q2 GDP Details Compared to Japan, Germany, Australia and U.S.

  The Swiss GDP for Q2/2013 was in line with its peers in developed countries. The quarterly (not annualized) change was +0.5% compared to 0.6% for Japan and the United States, +0.7% for Germany and +0.5% for Australia. Swiss and Japanese growth was driven more by consumption, while the U.S. advances were based more on …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/09/swiss-q2-gdp-compared-to-japan-germany-australia-and-u-s/

Inflation Difference (HICP) between Eurozone and Switzerland Narrows from 1.4% to 1.1%

  According to Swiss statistics, the yearly change in the Swiss consumer price index has risen from  -0.1% to 0%. The headline MoM figure fell by 0.4% due to the yearly sell-off in the retail sector. The difference between euro zone and Switzerland in terms of the European  Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices HICP has …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/08/inflation-difference-between-eurozone-switzerland-narrows/

Is the Swiss Capital Account Able to Neutralise the Persistent Current Account Surpluses?

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/chf/carry-trade-swiss-capital-account-neutralise-persistent-current-account-surpluses/

FX Theory: Understand Terms of Trade and Price-Adjusted Trade Balances

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/fx-theory/terms-of-trades-price-adjusted-trade-balances/

Swiss industrial production unimpressed by global slowing

Swiss industrial production rose by 3% in the first quarter 2013 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. Turnover rose by 3.7%. Details

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/07/swiss-industrial-production-unimpressed-by-global-slowing/

The Inflationary Cycle in Developed Countries Has Just Started in Germany

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The End of Swiss Deflation

The yearly change of the Swiss consumer price index has risen from -0.5% to -0.1%, the end of deflation is near. Swiss inflation measured with the European standard HICP has even improved to +0.2% y/y. Details

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/07/end-swiss-deflation/

Excessive Money Supply: Switzerland Could Follow in Spain’s and Ireland’s Footsteps

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/euro-zone-swiss-macro/excessive-money-supply-spain-ireland-switzerland/

Swiss home price to income ratio small in historic and global comparison

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/euro-zone-swiss-macro/swiss-home-prices-to-income/

Italian Retail Prices Remain close to Switzerland, Germany Far Cheaper

Disinflation Finally Starting in Italy The Swiss site preisbarometer.ch is run by the Swiss Consumer Association. Their price data shows that a food basket is 46% more expensive when compared between the German “Kaufland” shop and the Swiss “Coop”. Going to France into “Leclerc” gives you an advantage of 38% against Coop. However, for a …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/06/italian-prices-germany-switzerland/

SNB’s Danthine: Credit – is the sky the limit?

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/euro-zone-swiss-macro/danthine-credit-sky-limit/

Swiss second after Australia/NZL as for Employment Growth Since December 2007.

Employment growth since Dec ’07: Oz +8.1%, Switzerland +6.9%, Germany +5.8% Canada +4.3% Sweden +2.6% UK +0.9% Dutch +0.7% USA -2.1% Japan -2.3% Italy -3.1%

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/06/swiss-second-after-australianzl/

Swiss Inflation Rises, Services Up 0.6% YoY, Goods Swiss Origin +0.3%, Energy Tames

Cheaper energy prices and long-lasting contracts help against inflation. Swiss inflation increased by 0.1% against April. According to Swiss Statistics, on a year basis, the CPI fell by 0.5%. Major reasons for lower figures were the 6.3% YoY decrease in energy prices, 4.5% YoY lower clothes and footwear price and technological improvements in communication that caused …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/06/swiss-inflation-rises/

High German Pay Rises: The End of the German Bunds Bubble

Yesterday’s German CPI has given a first insights of what is coming these years: German inflation. For years excessive risk averseness put pressure on German yields. Most recently, energy prices helped to push down inflation and on German yields possibly for a last time. But many ignore that the main reason for inflation are rising …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/05/short-german-government-bonds/

UBS’s Consumption Indicator 1.46 Contradicts UBS’s Swiss GDP Forecast

UPDATE, February 2014 According to the latest data from the SECO,Swiss GDP rose by 2% in 2014 and not by 0.9% as the UBS predicted. Once again the Swiss economy seems to be stronger than expected. UBS’s consumption indicator for April came out at 1.46 (details). This number seems at odds with the weak private …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/05/ubs-consumption-indicator/

French Home Price Bubble Finally Bursting? German and French Flat Prices Compared

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/euro-zone-swiss-macro/french-home-price-bubble-2/

T. Jordan: Strong Swiss franc and large current account surplus – a contradiction?

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/chf/strong-swiss-franc-current-account-surplus/

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/05/swiss-trade-balance-global-economy/

Swiss Inflation Unchanged, HICP Difference Euro Area to Switzerland Down to 1.6%

Swiss inflation unchanged in April against March. The inflation difference between the Euro area and Switzerland on a new low. While in early 2012 it was near 4%, if has shrunk now to 1.6%. Details

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/05/swiss-inflation-unchanged-difference-euro-area-to-switzerland-down-to-1-6/

March Swiss Inflation Up 0.2% MoM, Down -0.6% YoY

Swiss inflation edged up 0.2% MoM when seasonal effects on clothes and footware were corrected. On a year basis, the CPI fell by 0.6%. Major reason were the falling energy prices, details

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/04/swiss-inflation-up-0-2-mom-down-0-6-yoy/

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/swiss-current-account-surplus-rises-from-8-5-to-13-5-of-gdp/

Swiss Economic Indicators, March 2013

  Switzerland continues to see a robust economy, even if the leading KOF indicator fell to 0.99 after highs of 1.68 in September. On other side, real and nominal wages continue to increase. As opposed to the KOF value, the UBS consumption indicator is rising. This shows that the internal economy is able to balance …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/swiss-economic-indicators-march-2013/

The Inflationary Cycle in Developed Countries Has Just Started in Germany

Even if many speak about deflation in Europe, we rather think that continuing better data from the United States will help euro zone inflation to bottom out soon, especially because Germany and some other Northern nations will exhibit rising prices and spending. Due to the continuing balance sheet recession in Southern Europe and France, inflation …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/new-inflationary-cycle-starts-in-germany/

Difference between Eurozone and Swiss Inflation Rates Continues to Shrink

The gap has fallen from 3.7% in February 2012 to 2.1%. Swiss CPI is rising on monthly basis, but still negative with 0.3% YoY.

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/difference-swiss-and-eurozone-inflation-rate/

Credit Suisse Study: Swiss Real Estate Market Needs Higher Rates

A new study by Credit Suisse claims that the SNB needs to hike interest rates in order to avoid excessive risk taking in real estate markets; in particular around the centers of Geneva and Zurich, but also in the Southern Swiss cantons with lower income, but high real estate prices. More details

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/credit-suisse-study-swiss-real-estate-market-needs-higher-rates/

Eurostat Inflation Dashboard

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Latest Swiss Inflation Details

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Switzerland’s Slow Way to Inflation

UPDATE February 2013 inflation data: The inflation figures for February showed the upwards movement we expected. On monthly basis inflation rose by 0.3%. The Swiss CPI is getting closer and closer to the one of the euro zone.   We explain the January 2013 data on Swiss inflation and indicate which components drive the consumer …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/switzerlands-slow-way-to-inflation/

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/target2-snb-currency-reserves-feb2013/

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/trade-balances-fx-rates/

Eurozone PMIs

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/euro-zone-swiss-macro/eurozone-pmis/

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/german-currency-and-gold-reserves-and-the-german-trade-surplus/

Swiss Public Discussion Switched from Floor to Housing Bubble

Why there is no real estate bubble in Switzerland yet and why the SNB will help to create one   With the current recovery in the United States the discussion in Switzerland switched from a discussion about the EUR/CHF floor to the Swiss real estate boom, the so-called “housing bubble”. It seems that the Swiss …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/swiss-discussion-from-floor-housing-bubble/

Swiss Statistical Dashboard

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Swiss Purchasing Manager Index

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The UBS Swiss Real Estate Index in Risk Zone Again

The UBS Swiss real estate bubble index has reached the risk zone again.More on UBS.

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/the-ubs-swiss-real-estate-bubble-index-in-risk-zone-again/

Downwards and Upwards Drivers of Swiss Inflation

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/euro-zone-swiss-macro/drivers-swiss-inflation/

Swiss and German Economic Indicators, Update November 1

Euro Crisis Has Affected Germany, Switzerland Still Immune    Most Recent Events The Swiss SVME PMI has risen from 43.9 to 46.1. This PMI  is dominated by machinery, metallurgical and electric equipment exporters organized in the Swissmem organization. As opposed to the chemical industry, they were not innovative enough to adapt to the stronger franc; but …

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Euro Crisis Has Affected Germany, Switzerland Still Immune

Swiss and German Economic Indicators, October 2012   Both Swiss and German economic indicators show continued signs of stability, but the German situation has become worse and might affect the Swiss. Especially low unemployment, rising real wages and strong trade balances are signs of robustness. Despite that, Germany’s industrial production is weaker than last year, …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/euro-crisis-affected-germany-switzerland-still-immune/

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Will the EUR/CHF fall like a stone? A perfect scalp ?

Recently we have observed the upward movement of all euro pairs. They have marked more or less continuously higher highs and higher lows thanks to massive support from the central banks ECB, Fed and SNB (ignore Sunday 16th)         The first euro pair to finish this upwards trend is traditionally the EUR/CHF. …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/will-eur-chf-fall-like-a-stone/

Are German Bunds finally heading for the big slide ?

Citibank judges that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) does not need a peg anymore. The EUR/CHF exchange rate would be now over 1.20 even if exposed to the free market. Yesterday we showed that the upward move in the EUR/CHF is just the behavior of some euphoric Forex traders. In the meantime we see a completely …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/german-bunds-big-slide/

Economic Indicators: In Switzerland and Germany the Euro Crisis Seems to Be Far Away

 Swiss vs. German Economic Indicators, August 2012        Both Swiss and German economic indicators show continued signs of stability. Especially low unemployment, good retail sales and strong trade balances are signs of robustness. The German trade surplus has improved compared to last year, whereas the strong franc harmed the Swiss trade surplus just a bit. …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/euro-crisis-far-away/

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Swiss & Euro Macro, The Most Relevant Posts

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German Schatz turns negative again

After the first time End May, the German Schatz turns negative:
German June 2014 Schatz Average Yield -0.06% vs 0.10% on June 20
Swiss Eidgenossen 2yrs still at -0.4%

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/germanschatzturnnegativeagain/

Switzerland in MoM deflation due to cheaper energy and clothes

Slowing energy prices (MoM -4.2%) and seasonal effects for clothes and footwear (MoM -2.8%) drove Switzerland in a slight deflation on monthly basis again.

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/switzerland-mom-deflation-cheaper-energy-clothes/

Spread Swiss Eidgenossen vs. German Bund to see further gains

The spread between the Swiss government Eidgenossen bond against the Germany 10yrs. Bund will see further gain in the future, after the Euro summit opened the door for ESM direct financing of banks.   Differences between EFSF and ESM explained

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/spread-swiss-eidgenossen-vs-german-bund-to-see-further-gains/

The other risk for the SNB: Will German Bund yields double ?

In the latest post we started discussing the implications of a German euro exit for the Swiss National Bank, this time we will look on another risk: The rising German Bund yields.

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/the-other-risk-for-the-snb-will-german-bund-yields-double/

Negative Yields of Government Bonds in 2012

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Why is the Swiss safe-haven so completely different from the Yen ?

4 future scenarios for the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen For many people it is astonishing that the Swiss franc continuously rises against the euro, especially when markets are up. Is the CHF no safe-haven any more ? This year the Japanese yen has strongly fallen against the major currencies. Together with the upturn …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/04/why-is-the-swiss-safe-haven-so-completely-different-from-the-yen/

Swiss Inflation, GDP, Monetary Base between 1974 and 2000

  Some background statistics on the Swiss monetary policy in the 1970s from Swiss Monetary Targeting 1974-1996: The role of internal policy analysis.   More details and monthly data on inflation here.        

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2003/08/inflation-monetary-base-1970-and-2000/