Category Archive: Global Macro

Dividend Yield Comparison SMI, DAX and Dow Jones

The following table compares the dividend yields for blue chips in the SMI, DAX and Dow Jones.

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/dividend-yield-smi-dax-dow-jones/

Place of Birth of New Ukrainian Leaders Cement the Country’s Move to the West and the EU

The place of birth of the Ukrainian leaders give us hints where the country is headed. Most of them come from the very West of Ukraine, from places that formerly were part of the Austrian-Hungarian empire, of Poland or Romania.

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/10/place-birth-ukrainian-leaders-cement-countrys-move-west/

The Dollar, the ISM, Buy American and Irrational Exuberance

In this Cross Asset Global Macro Analysis we name our reasons for the current dollar strength. The main causes are ECB’s euro “downtalk”, tight monetary policy in Emerging Markets, rising savings of the aging populations. This leads to weak global spending and growth. With the help of Fed-financed higher asset prices and falling gasoline prices, …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/09/dollar-ism-irrational-exuberance/

Stock Indices and Exposure to Emerging Markets

Monetary policy is and remains tight in Emerging Markets, in particular since many of their currencies collapsed in summer 2013. This created inflation and led to lower spending. We want to find out which stock indices in the developed world have which exposure to Emerging Markets.

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/stock-indices-emerging-markets/

The Best Contrarian Macro Investment: Russia?

We name thirteen macro-economic reasons why Russia is currently the best place for contrarian investments.

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/08/best-contrarian-investment-russia/

Net National Savings Rate, the Best Alternative Indicator to GDP Growth

For us the Net National Savings Rate is the best alternative indictator to GDP growth. The Net National Savings Rate (NNSR) is rather positively correlated with the change in wealth, with the establishment of future productive capacity, the price of government bonds and currency valuations. The relationship of GDP growth to those four criteria, however, is often a negative correlation.

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/net-national-savings-alternative-gdp/

Can Sanctions Stop Putin? Russian Resource Rent versus Declining Oil Price

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/can-sanctions-stop-putin/

Malaysian MH17: Ukrainian&Western Propaganda against Russian Propaganda. Who is Best?

strong suspicion that Ukrainian air control deliberately facilitated and enabled the shot-down. Combining Western and Ukrainian propaganda with pro-Russian propaganda helps. In each piece of “manufactured or exaggerated news” there might be a bit of truth. Still there is only one party to this conflict that has to gain from a deliberate blowing up of MH17, this is not Russia or the so-called “Donezk People’s Republic”.

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/07/malaysia-airlines-flight/

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/07/dollar-higher-savings-smaller-current-account/

What Drives Government Bond Yields, Part2: Emerging Markets and Recent Discussions

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/government-bond-yields-emerging-markets/

Global Inflation Spikes Up, Are You Sure About What You Are Doing Mr Draghi?

  The European Central Bank (ECB) has the habit of reacting late. As seen in July 2008 and July 2011, the ECB is often the last major central bank to hike rates. They hike rates at the moment when others prepare for a recession or a significant slowing. Currently we are witnessing the opposite movement: The world is getting …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/06/global-inflation-spikes-ecb/

Natural Gas: Global Reserves, Producers and Alliances

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/natural-gas-global-resources/

Labor Participation Rates: Falling in the Ageing U.S., Rising in Ageing Germany and Crisis-Hit Italy

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/labor-participation-rate-global/

The trade deficit and the collapse of manufacturing, the causes of the U.S. secular stagnation?

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/sector-balance/trade-deficit-manufacturing-secular-stagnation/

Stagnating Salaries as Main Reason for the British Home Price Boom

The major reason for rising British and American home prices is for us the relatively new phenomenon that they are to able to finance at cheap rates. Swiss or Germans have seen relatively low mortgage rates for more than three decades (with a short exception in the mid 1990s after the German reunification). The main driver of low rates …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/05/stagnating-salaries-for-british-home-price-boom/

Russia, Europe, and the new international order

By Josef Janning – 09 Apr 14 Via the European Council of Foreign Relations. The premise of an international order defined by the West and shared by the rest has been shown to be faulty. Ever since the Soviet Union fell apart and nationalism re-emerged as a divisive as well as cohesive factor in Eastern …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/04/russia-europe-new-international-order/

China: The best way to manipulate GDP is to lower inflation

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/china-manipulate-gdp-lower-inflation/

Krimkonflikt: Über die Gleichschaltung der deutschen Medien

Der Propagandakrieg in Russland, in den USA und insbesondere in Deutschland und auch in der Schweiz geht weiter. Russische Medien trichtern den Menschen ein, dass eine riesige Flüchtlingswelle von Russen aus der Ukraine stattfindet. Deutsche Medien sind gleichgeschaltet: von links (TAZ, Spiegel, Stern) bis rechts (FAZ, n-tv.de und Welt) trichtern sie den Deutschen ein, dass …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/03/krimkonflikt-gleichschaltung-deutsche-medien/

Labor Costs to Total Expenses, Global Comparison

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/labor-costs-to-total-expenses-global-comparison/

Ukraine: About Street-Elected Overthrowers and Democratically Elected Dictators

It only needs a few years until democratically elected presidents become so-called “tyrants” and “dictators”. The bad economic situation in many emerging markets and Russia, and therefore also in Ukraine, has taken its toll. Demonstrators and Ukrainian nationalists toppled a president that has a Russian mother tongue. But Yanukovych was a protector of the country’s …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/02/ukraine/

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