Both Chinese PMI and the producer price index (PPI) are in deflation since 2012. This opens a lot of questions about the sustainability of Chinese economic growth, but also about the certain economic theories that consider deflation as a precursor of depression, as it did in the early 1930s. China’s speed of economic growth simply slows, recently to 7%, according to China statistics “China’s Economy Showed Moderate but Steady Growth”.
Category Archive: Global Macro
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/china-ppi-deflation/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/wage-inflation-stock-market-rallye/
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2014 Posts on Global Macro
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/2014-gm/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/10/place-birth-ukrainian-leaders-cement-countrys-move-west/
In this Cross Asset Global Macro Analysis we name our reasons for the current dollar strength. The main causes are ECB’s euro “downtalk”, tight monetary policy in Emerging Markets, rising savings of the aging populations. This leads to weak global spending and growth. With the help of Fed-financed higher asset prices and falling gasoline prices, …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/09/dollar-ism-irrational-exuberance/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/2014-gm/stock-indices-emerging-markets/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/08/best-contrarian-investment-russia/
For us the Net National Savings Rate is the best alternative indictator to GDP growth. The Net National Savings Rate (NNSR) is rather positively correlated with the change in wealth, with the establishment of future productive capacity, the price of government bonds and currency valuations. The relationship of GDP growth to those four criteria, however, is often a negative correlation.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/2014-gm/net-national-savings-alternative-gdp/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/2014-gm/can-sanctions-stop-putin/
strong suspicion that Ukrainian air control deliberately facilitated and enabled the shot-down. Combining Western and Ukrainian propaganda with pro-Russian propaganda helps. In each piece of “manufactured or exaggerated news” there might be a bit of truth. Still there is only one party to this conflict that has to gain from a deliberate blowing up of MH17, this is not Russia or the so-called “Donezk People’s Republic”.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/07/malaysia-airlines-flight/
In summer 2013, even the sceptical and “gold-friendly” economist John Mauldin followed the mainstream thinking that fracking and other technology could reduce OPEC’s and the Chinese advantage in global trade and reduce the U.S. trade deficit. Recently both claims got refuted: the first with WTI crude oil prices rising to nearly 108$ despite enhanced supply. Detailed data showed that rising U.S. industrial production was not caused by more manufacturing but by mining and the oil industry. We think that any way the U.S. current account deficit could effectively shrink. The reason, however, is that the savings rate of Americans could rise further and the balance sheet recession continue. Traditionally currencies appreciate with higher savings (in local currency) and depreciate with more spending.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/07/dollar-higher-savings-smaller-current-account/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/2014-gm/government-bond-yields-emerging-markets/
The European Central Bank (ECB) has the habit of reacting late. As seen in July 2008 and July 2011, the ECB is often the last major central bank to hike rates. They hike rates at the moment when others prepare for a recession or a significant slowing. Currently we are witnessing the opposite movement: The world is getting …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/06/global-inflation-spikes-ecb/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/2014-gm/labor-participation-rate-global/
The major reason for rising British and American home prices is for us the relatively new phenomenon that they are to able to finance at cheap rates. Swiss or Germans have seen relatively low mortgage rates for more than three decades (with a short exception in the mid 1990s after the German reunification). The main driver of low rates …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/05/stagnating-salaries-for-british-home-price-boom/
By Josef Janning – 09 Apr 14 Via the European Council of Foreign Relations. The premise of an international order defined by the West and shared by the rest has been shown to be faulty. Ever since the Soviet Union fell apart and nationalism re-emerged as a divisive as well as cohesive factor in Eastern …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/04/russia-europe-new-international-order/
Der Propagandakrieg in Russland, in den USA und insbesondere in Deutschland und auch in der Schweiz geht weiter. Russische Medien trichtern den Menschen ein, dass eine riesige Flüchtlingswelle von Russen aus der Ukraine stattfindet. Deutsche Medien sind gleichgeschaltet: von links (TAZ, Spiegel, Stern) bis rechts (FAZ, n-tv.de und Welt) trichtern sie den Deutschen ein, dass …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/03/krimkonflikt-gleichschaltung-deutsche-medien/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/2014-gm/labor-costs-to-total-expenses-global-comparison/
It only needs a few years until democratically elected presidents become so-called “tyrants” and “dictators”. The bad economic situation in many emerging markets and Russia, and therefore also in Ukraine, has taken its toll. Demonstrators and Ukrainian nationalists toppled a president that has a Russian mother tongue. But Yanukovych was a protector of the country’s …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/02/ukraine/