Category Archive: Global Macro
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/seasonal-factors-on-oil/
Jim O’Neills Bullish BRICS Outlook until 2020 and our Critics
Goldman Sachs Asset Management via Business Insider “I have chosen to focus on the world,” said Jim O’Neill in his final note as an economist for Goldmans Sachs. O’Neill, who is famous for coining the acronym BRICs, discusses how the BRICs and other growth markets will continue to be an increasingly important driver of global …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/05/jim-oneills-bullish-brics-outlook-until-2020-and-our-critics/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/gdp-comparison-brics-developed-markets/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/the-great-american-divide/
Which Of The Six Major Fundamental Factors For Gold And Silver Are Still Positive? Which Are Not?
In the first part we identified the six major fundamentals that drive gold and silver prices. In this second part we speak about the relationship between gold and silver. We explain which fundamental factors speak for an increase of gold and silver prices and which don’t. Since fundamentals are very difficult to grasp, many people …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/04/old-silver-fundamental-factors-positive-negative/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/shale-oil-breakeven-price-55-70-and-daily-capacity-0-7mbd/
UPDATED: The Six Major Fundamental Factors that Determine Gold and Silver Prices
For us, gold and silver are the most complicated assets to price. Stocks, currencies and other commodities mostly depend on fundamental data of the stock, the country or on physical demand and supply of the commodity. Once fundamental data about the asset comes out, even an inexperienced investor can understand most price movements. Pricing gold …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/04/gold-and-silver-prices/
Japanese Investors Will Determine Fate of USD/JPY not U.S. Hedge Funds
By Stephen Jen (via Itau Global Connections). Bottom line Now that the Bank of Japan will be led by a team of super-doves, the mechanism through which a more aggressive BOJ could influence the yen is through capital flows. We have used the analogy of a two-stage rocket to describe how USDJPY could be propelled. …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/04/fate-of-usdjpy/
Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update April 10
Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators. In the last month, Asian economies showed better PMIs, while the Americas slowed their expansion and Europe still struggled. Update April 10 After the slowing in Q3 and Q4/2012, Asian and Pacific emerging economies returned to growth, …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/04/global-purchasing-manager-indices-april-10/
BoJ: Despite Quantitative and Qualitative Easing No Sign of FX Purchases
The Bank of Japan has introduced the expected “massive” quantitative and qualitative easing programme. “Quantitative” means increase of quantities of JGBs bought, “qualitative” the purchase of more ETFs, REIT and the loan support program.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/04/quantitative-qualitative-easing-no-fx-purchases/
The “Sell in May, Come Back in October” Effect and the 19 Fortune-Tellers of the FOMC
The U.S. economy regularly improves between October and April, this year additionally fueled by “indefinite” quantitative easing, weaker gas prices and higher competitiveness thanks to a stronger Chinese yuan and weaker Asian economies. Update 2013: ISM purchasing manager indices Due to the September 2012 monetary easing, seasonal effects were stronger than usually, when measured …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/04/sell-in-may-fortune-tellers-fom/
Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Dollar Correction at Hand?
Submitted by Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy, Brown Brothers Harriman The US dollar rose against all the major currencies in the past week. It seems clear that the greenback’s gains were not a reflection of domestic developments, though it is true that US data stands in stark contrast with nearly every other major country. …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/currency-positioning-and-technical-outlook-dollar-correction-at-hand/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/seasonal-factors-on-gold/
Why the Yen Is Now Fairly Valued, USD back as Preferred Funding Currency
Producer prices and “real mean reversion” for currencies show that the yen is currently fairly valued. Many momentum factors could, however, speak for some further weakening, while seasonality favours an appreciation. For us, the US dollar is back as the preferred funding currency. The real mean reversion for currencies Some economists, like Goldman’s O’Neill, in the case …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/why-the-yen-is-now-fairly-valued/
More About Overheating Emerging Markets: Retail Investors Should not Touch these Bonds
In our series about emerging markets, we name some that are overheating and could face increases of government bond yields due to higher inflation and weaker current accounts. At the same time, banks are aggressively selling emerging market bonds as possibility to achieve high yields. Tristan Hanson, head of asset allocation at Ashburton Asset …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/more-about-overheating-emerging-markets/
The Volcker Moment and the “Volcker Moment Redux”: The Successful Reduction of Global Imbalances
We reckon that the Fed’s Quantitative Easing in 2010 (QE2) is the main reason why many emerging markets started to slow considerably in the course of 2012. This weakness might continue for some time. As for the consequence on certain emerging markets, QE2 was quite similar to the Volcker moment in 1982 and could therefore …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/volcker-moment-redux/
When Will Hedge Funds and FX Traders Close their Short Yen Positions?
Hedge Funds have lost their power. This year has shown that their only remaining possibility to gain easy money is a concerted action with some of their friends manipulating currency markets, calling it “currency wars” and creating an unholy alliance with the dovish prime minister Abe. Some of the biggest U.S. hedge-fund investors have made …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/when-hedge-funds-close-their-short-yen/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/price-earning-ratios-and-stock-markets/
Net Speculative Positions, Technical Forecast, Week March 04: King Dollar Returns?
Submitted by Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy, Brown Brothers Harriman The US dollar rose against all the major currencies in the past week. It seems clear that the greenback’s gains were not a reflection of domestic developments, though it is true that US data stands in stark contrast with nearly every other major country. …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/net-speculative-positions-technical-forecast-march04/
Is U.S. Housing Really Recovering? Pros and Cons
The U.S. housing market is the main driver for risk on/off movements and therewith implicitly of the gold price. We state charts, e.g. Shiller Home Price Index and U.S. New Home Sales statistics, arguments in favour of a housing recovery and the counter-arguments.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/is-u-s-housing-really-recovering-pros-and-cons/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/is-u-s-housing-really-recovering/
Explaining price movements in FX rates
Based on 5 indicators, credit cycles, current account and trade balances, financial position of the concerned country, risk aversion and the alignment of rich and poor nations, we explain the price movement of FX prices on a fundamental data basis. Please read the first part “The Five Main Factors That Determine FX Rates” in order …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/fx-price-movements/
Net Speculative Positions, Technical Forecast, Week February 17
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The official talk around the G7 statement and the G20 meeting generated a great deal of needless noise in the foreign exchange room. It is almost like a librarian yelling “Quiet”. It may be more disruptive than the initial noise. With the meetings out of the way, we expect …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/net-speculative-positions-feb-17/
Net Speculative Positions, Technical Forecast, Week February9
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com Last week the euro was the weakest of the major currencies and the recently beaten up sterling and yen were the strongest. A similar pattern was also evident in the dollar-bloc. The New Zealand dollar had been the strongest and last week had was the weakest, with the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/net-speculative-positions-technical-forecast-week-february9/
Opinions of Leading Economists on Japan and the Unholy Alliance of Kyle Bass and Shinzo Abe
We give an overview of opinions of leading economists that want to help Japan out of deflation. Paul Krugman, Richard Koo, Adam Posen and Kyle Bass. We show that FX traders and some hedge funds might have weakened the yen solely on the opinion of the unholy alliance of Kyle Bass and Shinzo Abe.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/economists-on-japan-unholy-alliance-bass-abe/
Is a Liquidity Trap Really a Problem? Yen Debasement Part3 by Noah Smith
Thoughts on the Japanese Currency Debasement (part 3) or why the liquidity trap will not need monetary easing to abate In previous posts we looked on the following aspects of the recent Japanese currency debasement: Overview: What different leading economists – Paul Krugman, Richard Koo, Adam Posen, Kyle Bass – think about the Japanese currency …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/liquidity-trap-proble/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/the-sell-in-may-come-back-in-october/
Net Speculative Positions, Technical Forecast, Week February4
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The main drivers of the foreign exchange market have strengthened. This means that the current trends, especially euro strength and yen, sterling and dollar bloc weakness are likely to persist. The recent price action will likely reinforce the trader behavior of buying euros on pullbacks and selling into bounces …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/net-speculative-positions-week-february-4/
Japanese Currency Debasement, Part 1: Current Account and Japanese Bond Bears
In our first part on Japans currency debasement, we look on three aspects, government bond yields, current account balances and potential hyper-inflation which causes yields to rise strongly.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/japanese-currency-debasement/
Net Speculative Positions, Week January 28
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com It is difficult to talk about the US dollar’s performance over the past couple of weeks. There has been a key divergence. The dollar has been trading higher against most currencies except the euro and those currencies, like the Swiss franc or the Scandis, that move in the euro’s …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/net-speculative-positions-week-january-21-2/
Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update January 25
Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators. After a strong slowing in summer 2012 and the Fed’s QE3, this is the fourth month of improvements in global PMIs January 25th Expansion-contraction ratio: There are 15 countries that show values above 50 and 14 with values under 50. Positive-negative-change ratio: …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/global-purchasing-manager-indices-update-january-25/
Roubini and Deutsche Bank’s Sanjeev Sanyal: Still Waiting for the Chinese Consumer
Nouriel Roubini and Deutsche Bank’s Sanjeev Sanyal are quite pessimistic about future global and Chinese growth. They think that we need to wait a long time for the Chinese consumer that should boost global growth.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/waiting-for-chinese-consumption/
Net Speculative Positions, Week January 21
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The technical tone of the major foreign currencies deteriorated in recent days. It appears to be a cascading effect. Favorite risk-on currencies, like the dollar-bloc, failed to participate in the move against the greenback. The Swiss franc took the dubious honor of being the weakest currency last week, losing 2.2% …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/net-speculative-positions-week-january-21/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/snb/snb-balance-sheet-vs-boj/
Epic Shift in Monetary Policy: Japan goes SNB, Nuclear Option
UPDATE March 4, 2013: For the Ministry of Finance the yen is too weak to do FX interventions. Still they find an excuse: (Reuters) – Haruhiko Kuroda, the government’s nominee for next Bank of Japan governor, said on Monday it would be difficult for the central bank to buy foreign bonds in huge amounts …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/epic-shift-in-monetary-policy-japan-goes-snb-nuclear-option/
Net Speculative Positions, Week January 14
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com There have been some large moves in the foreign exchange market in recent days. The euro posted its largest rally in four months last week. The yen has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar since June 2010 and extended the declining streak to nine consecutive weeks, something …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/net-speculative-positions-january-14/
Forget U.S. Energy Independence, Chinese Consumption Growth will be Quicker
We maintain that the claims that the United States will be energy independent based on current estimates by the EIA on U.S. production are misleading. On the contrary, import costs for foreign oil will be the same in 2020 as today. see on You Tube The expected “U.S. Energy Independence” The IEA released a …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/u-s-energy-independence-chinese-consumption/
Same Procedure as Every Year: Analysts Shouting “The Great Recession is Over!” But It Is Not!
Or why we do not believe in the American economy. Like every year in Q4, analysts proudly present the end of the great recession: 2009: The big picture: The Great Recession is Over! Long Live the Ordinary Recession …. 2010: Mish Global Trend Analysis: The Great Recession is Over; Bad News: It Doesn’t Feel Like …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/the-great-recession-is-over/
The World in Balance Sheet Recession, a 2012 update
Monetary policy has failed alone to lift the U.S. economy during QE2, because the private sector is obsessed with minimizing debt, they are in a “balance sheet recession”, according to Nomura Chief Economist Richard Koo. Koo’s presentation explains how the U.S and Europe have expanded their monetary base, but that this flood of cash isn’t …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/world-in-balance-sheet-recession/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/government-bond-yields/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/us-economic-indicators/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/debt-financial-cycle-2011-2017/
Quantitative Easing, Gold and the Swiss Franc
The main drivers of demand for Swiss francs are the euro crisis, but even more, the behavior of American investors, who go out of the dollar in the fear of further bad US economic data and of Quantitative Easing. This will push down the dollar, and safe-havens like the CHF, gold or the Japanese Yen up. …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/quantitative-easing-gold-chf-dec-27/
The Biggest Bubble of the Century: Government Bond Yields
Government bond yields under 10 years for safe-havens are close to zero. Even 20 year bond yields are less than 3%, What can explain this bubble of the century? Update April 24, 2013: (now with 30 years instead 20 years !!) German Bunds 30 yrs. 2.19%, UK Gilts 3.04%, US Treasuries 2.90%, Japan JGB …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/the-biggest-bubble-of-the-century-government-bond-yields/
Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update December 17
Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators. Since the Fed’s QE3, this is the third month of improvements in global PMIs after a strong slowing in summer 2012. January 25th Expansion-contraction ratio: There are as many countries that show values above 50 as under 50. Positive-negative-change ratio: 18 countries …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/global-pmis-dec17/
Main US Economic Indicators
The four best “recession” indicators, in form of coincident economic indicators, can be seen at Doug Short/Advisor Update May 2013 Update December 21th, 2012 We observe the following: US indicators point upwards, when the rest of the world is slowing. The rest of the world was slowing for the whole for the fourth quarter, just …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/us-recession-indicators-december-2012/
Seasonal Factors on Oil
Evidence from simple tests supports perhaps some belief that crude oil tends to have strong and weak months of the year, Q4 is often the weakest quarter and Q1 and Q2 are the best.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/seasonal-factors-oil/
Net Speculative Positions, Week November 19
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The US Dollar Index bottomed on September 14, the day after QE3+ was announced. It reached a 2-month high before the weekend. It has now retraced half of the ground lost from ECB President Draghi’s pledge to “to do whatever it takes” through hints, and then delivery, of …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/11/net-speculative-positions-nov-19/
Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update December 10
Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the most leading and important economic indicators. Jim O’Neill, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, believes the PMI numbers are among the most reliable economic indicators in the world. BlackRock’s Russ Koesterich thinks it’s one of the most underrated indicators. Global Purchasing Manager Indices for the manufacturing industry December 3, 2012 …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/11/global-purchasing-manager-indices-pmi-overview-update-december-10/
Die Wiederwahl Obamas bedeutet nichts Gutes für die Schweiz
Barack Obama war und ist der präferierte Kandidat vieler Schweizer. Obama scheint der Mann von Welt zu sein, während vom konservativen Mitt Romney eher feindselige Politik gegen Russland, China und Iran zu erwarten ist. Daher sind die Neutralität- und Frieden-liebenden Schweizer eher auf Obamas Seite. Aber auch wirtschaftspolitisch scheinen viele Eidgenossen Obama zu mögen. …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/11/die-wiederwahl-obamas-bedeutet-nichts-gutes-fur-die-schweiz/
Time to Be Long the Yen – In Times of De-Leveraging
In time of rising de-leveraging there are only a few countries that have already de-levered from their debt. The fore-most one is the yen. We will show that this currency is worth an investment exactly now despite and or even because of the recent issues with China.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/time-to-be-long-the-yen/
Net Speculative Positions, Global Stock Markets, Week October 29
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The US Dollar Index reached its best level in more than six weeks on Friday. Yet it managed to only close a couple of ticks higher, as if warning short-term participants against ideas that a breakout is at hand. This also appears to be the message of the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/net-speculative-positions-global-stock-markets-week-october-29/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/government-bond-yields-by-country-and-maturity/
Who Has Got the Problem? Europe or Japan?
A couple of months ago the euro traded close to EUR/USD 1.20 and the whole world was betting on its breakdown. Once the euro downtrend ended thanks to QE3, OMT and euro zone current account surpluses, the common currency did not stop to appreciate against the yen and reached levels of EUR/JPY 104 and above. …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/who-has-got-the-problem-europe-or-japan/
Net Speculative Positions, Global Stock Markets, Week October 22
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com Our big picture view is that the US dollar is carving out an important bottom, after selling off in Q3 as policy makers moved to reduce the extreme tail risks. The position adjustment that inspired among investors appears to have largely run its course.This bottoming of the dollar is …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/net-speculative-positions-global-stock-markets-october-22/
Is China’s Growth Rate Healthy Now? Part 1: Golden Rule of Capital
After a slowing in Chinese growth this year, economists recently stated that a hard landing has been avoided and that the economy might have bottomed out. Marc Faber has changed his mind and considers buying Chinese stocks. Also Sprach Analyst provides the following data: Sequential growth rates since Q1 through Q3 were 1.5%, 2.0% and 2.2% …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/golden-rule-of-capital/
Again Flawed Data for Jobs
Some ten days ago, we examined in detail why the monthly job data was no conspiracy as Jack Welch maintained, but simply flawed. Similarly as David Rosenberg we said that the way the BLS obtains data for the household survey was error-prone. Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg That the 7.8 percent jobless rate takes it to the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/again-flawed-data-for-job-reports/
The Three Main Forex strategies: Trend Following, Mean Reversion and the Carry trade. Is the Carry Trade Dead ?
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week October 15 Market participants have to confront a stark asymmetry. There are many ways to lose money, but there appears to be only three ways to make money. Nearly all strategies seem to come down to some variant …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/three-main-forex-strategies/
Marc Faber: Assets are overpriced, we short metals and Brent now
As we predicted on October 5 or one day later on DailyFX, metals have started their descent, silver lost one dollar, from levels around 35$ last week to 34$ now. Marc Faber joins our view and says that asset prices are quite vulnerable. “I’m not 100% in cash, for the simple reason that I could …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/shorting-assets-now/
IMF World Economic Outlook
Alexander Gloy is founder and president of Lighthouse Investment Management The IMF’s (International Monetary Fund) “World Economic Outlook”, a slim 250-page piece, came out. Some excerpts: Substantial reductions in estimated output (GDP) growth for 2013 for all major countries: Unemployment in the Euro-Area (“EA”) is now expected to rise above the level …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/imf-world-economic-outlook/
Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week October 8
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The Price of Protection We have been tracking the deterioration in the technical condition of the major foreign currencies in this weekly note for the past three weeks. The euro’s recovery, off the support we identified here last week near $1.2800, should not overshadow the fact that the dollar’s …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/net-speculative-positions-fx-outlook-global-stocks-week-october-8/
Conspiracy? Why the Jobs Report Was not Cooked, but simply Flawed
Conspiracy ? Huge Differences Between the Payrolls Report and the Household Survey based on the extracts of Robert Oak, Noslaves.com and his blog on Economic Populist It’s a conspiracy! The BLS is trying to swing the election! They’re cookin’ de books! By now you’ve seen the claims, accusations and mumblings by the pundits, press, twitter and blogosphere. So …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/why-the-jobs-report-was-not-cooked-but-was-simply-flawed/
Marc Faber argues against Jim Rogers
The most famous investors Marc Faber and Jim Rogers were in a common interview on CNBC. Marc Faber is of our position, whereas Jim Rogers is still bullish on commodities. Marc points out that China’s bench mark stock index the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index was at 6100 in 2007 even as it …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/jim-rogers-against-marc-faber/
Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week of October 1
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com If the third quarter was about the reduction of tail-risk by official actions, then Q4 will be about the limitations of the policy response. It will pose a challenging investment climate after what turned out to be a favorable performance in Q3. Equities generally did well. The US …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/net-speculative-positions-fx-outlook-global-stock-markets-week-october1/
Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week September 24
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The days ahead will help clarify whether the US dollar’s somewhat firmer tone last week was simply corrective in nature, before a new leg lower, or the carving out of a bottom of a downtrend that began in June against most of the major currencies and July for the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/net-speculative-positions-fx-outlook-global-stock-markets-week-september-24/
The “Beautiful” De-Leveraging
A beautiful deleveraging balances the three options. In other words, there is a certain amount of austerity, there is a certain amount of debt restructuring, and there is a certain amount of printing of money. When done in the right mix, it isn’t dramatic. It doesn’t produce too much deflation or too much depression. There is slow growth, but it is positive slow growth. At the same time, ratios of debt-to-incomes go down. That’s a beautiful deleveraging.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/the-beautiful-deleveraging/
Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week September 17
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com Nearly every development in recent days has been embraced by the foreign exchange market as a reason to continue to do what it has been doing since late July, and that is to sell the dollar. The German Constitutional Court ruling, allowing the European Stability Mechanism to …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/net-speculative-positions-fx-outlook-september-17/
It’s not simply QE3
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The outcome of the FOMC meeting is not just a new round of quantitative easing, some might call it QE3. What the Fed announced represents a new chapter in its policy response. The first distinguishing aspect of its decision is the open-ended nature of it. While it has not indicated …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/not-simply-qe3/
Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week September 10
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com Key policy makers are preparing new efforts to address the deterioration of financial and economic conditions. This is seen reducing tail risks, which allowed the rally in risk assets to be extended, and undermined the dollar. China is providing new fiscal support. The ECB announced its new Outright Market …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/net-speculative-positions-week-september-10/
What’s this crazy movement in EUR/CHF ? SNB Floor Hike ?
On Friday there was a big movement in the EUR/CHF. First it went up to 1.2154, fell later down to 1.2080 in the main American trading and rose again to 1.21 in the low-volume trading time. We repeat our entry from Friday, because we continuously updated the post after new developments, e.g. after the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/snb-floor-hike-rumour-again/
Net Speculative Positions, Technical Outlook, Global Markets Ahead of Eventful Week September 3rd
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The week ahead kicks off what we expect to be a period of intense event risk. The combination of positioning, judging from the futures market and anecdotal reports, and the low implied volatility in currencies and equity markets warn of heightened risk in the period ahead. The week begins …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/net-speculative-positions-and-technical-outlook-september-3rd/
FX Technical Outlook, Net Speculative Positions, Global Markets, week August 27
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com There are two main drivers behind the price action in the foreign exchange market and they will likely persist in the days ahead. First, there continues to be position adjustment ahead of the what promises to be eventful few weeks. Second, the release of the minutes from the August 1 …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/net-speculative-positioning-aug-27/
Why the euro has recovered? or are Markit PMI really reliable?
Here a follow-up of our contribution on Seeking Alpha written on August 15th, with the title “Are Markit PMIs really reliable?“. We recommended to go long the euro and the Swiss franc against the US dollar and sterling, because the Markit PMIs were not in line with trade balance data. Previously we suggested in …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/why-the-euro-has-recovered/
Brad DeLong on Jackson Hole and Quantitative Easing
Berkeley Professor Brad DeLong has delivered a nice allegorical entry in his type pad on a quick Quantitative Easing. Letting speak old greek mythological figures he hides his personal opinion. A half now completely written platonic dialogue on what the Federal Reserve is Doing — or not Doing — Right Now DeLong explains the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/delong-jackson-hole-qe/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/
Net Speculative Positions , Global Markets and Outlook, week from August 20
Currency Positioning and Outlook, week from August 20 Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The market is like expectant parents who don’t know the gender of the fetus. They know something big is around the corner, but they don’t have enough information to make some important decisions. They can contemplate the future, but there …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/currency-positioning-and-outlook-week-from-august-20/
Fed Violates its Own Inflation Targets. Should QE3 Be Postponed?
At this year’s Jackson Hole symposium, Ben Bernanke promised to help the economy via further easing if needed. We doubt his promises because because the Fed might contradict their inflation targets. Current levels of around 2 % for the consumer price inflation excluding food and energy (“core CPI“) and the deflator of the GDP …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/qe3-postponed-to-2015/
Net Speculative Positions and Outlook, week of August 13
Currency Positioning and Outlook, week of August 13 Submitted by Marc Chandler from MarctoMarkets.com Market positioning in the week ending August 10 suggests that speculators in the futures market generally agree with our assessment that ECB President Draghi’s recent proposal was not a game changer. The recent pattern continued. Essentially what this entails is buying …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/currency-positioning-and-outlook-august13/
Volatility ETFs’ crazy churn
Two volatility ETFs (VXX and UVXY) are having almost half of the trading volume in the world’s largest ETF (SPY). How come? First, the facts: SPY is heavily traded (19% of assets daily turnover) compared to IVV (also referring to the S&P 500). But then come the volatility ETFs. Tiny VIXY (assets $145m) …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/volatility-etfs-crazy-churn/
Global PMIs Contracting More – Are Stocks Overvalued?
updated August 05,2012 We publish a detailed analysis of global PMIs and compare them with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD some days after most PMIs came out. Abstract: Thanks to positive US consumer confidence, stock markets are highly valued, whereas the Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) for the manufacturing industry are contracting …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/global-pmis-by-august-05/
Net Speculative Positions and Technical Analysis,week from August 6
Currency Positioning and Technical Analysis, week from August6 Submitted by Marc Chandler from MarctoMarkets.com The overall technical tone of the US dollar is suspect. During the last few months, it has been trending lower against the dollar-bloc currencies, Canadian and Australian dollars and the Mexican peso. The greenback has trended higher against the euro and Swiss …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/currency-positioning-aug6/
Currency Outlook and Net Speculative Positions: Week from July 16
Currency Outlook and Positioning: Week from July 16
Guest Post from Marc Chandler
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/guest-post-currency-outlook-and-positioning-week-from-july-16/
The End of Swiss and Japanese Deflation
At a time of speculations about global deflation, we show an interesting and very different aspect. Our CPI and wage data comparison among different developed countries, shows that Switzerland and Japan will see both inflation, whereas other countries like Australia will see disinflation.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/the-end-of-swiss-japanese-deflation/
Two Swiss gold referendum initiatives: “Save our Swiss Gold” and “The Gold Franc”
Two Swiss initiatives to save the money and the gold of ordinary people against the establishment. 1) Save our Swiss Gold and 2) The Gold Franc.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/two-swiss-gold-initiatives/
Non-Farm Payrolls: Today’s preview
A detailed comparison of Non-Farm Payroll estimators from six different sources, like Bloomberg, ISM, Department of Labor and ADP.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/non-farm-payrolls-todays-preview/
Global Macro with all Global PMIs July 4th
updated July 4,2012 This page inside our macro data menu contains global PMIs compared with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD as of the day after most PMIs came out. JP Morgan’s Global PMI: Click for details inside the table, History of composite PMI
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/global-macro-with-all-global-pmis-july-4th/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/rising-house-prices-sustain-spending/
Quantitative Easing Indicators, June 2012
The main drivers for demand for Swiss francs are the Euro crisis, but even more the behavior of American investors, who go out of the dollar in the fear of further bad US economic data and in the fear of Quantitative Easing. This will push down the dollar and safe-havens like the CHF, gold or the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/quantitative-easing-indicators-june-2012/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/global-macro/manufacturing-pmis/
DRAFT: The latest bubble: Real estate in Russia
From Barnaul, Siberia, Russia Inna, 28, is a high-school teacher, she has one child. Her monthly salary is 8’500 Russian Rubel, about 257 USD. Similarly as many state employees her salary is very low. Recently the state doubled the salary of policemen and soldiers from 20’000 RUB to 40’000 RUB. A main reason was that …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/the-latest-bubble-real-estate-in-russia/
The vicious cycle of the US economy or why the US dollar must ultimately fall again
Just some simple words about the vicious cycle of the US economy and the consequences on the US dollar: A stronger USD will not rescue the US economy, quite the contrary. US companies will not hire in the US, but outsource or hire overseas. If they hire in the US, due to the high number …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/the-vicious-cycle-of-the-us-economy-or-why-the-us-dollar-must-ultimately-fall-again/
The Chinese Government, a bubble creator or when finally does China consume ?
The years 2009 to 2011 have seen four institutions that created bubbles in commodity, stock and real estate markets. 2008 and 2009 saw the massive Keynesian interventions by the US state and the Chinese government. In 2009 the first Quantitative Easing measures enabled a first flood of hot money into Emerging Markets. Summer 2010 witnessed …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/draft-the-chinese-government-a-bubble-creator-or-when-finally-does-china-consume/
Forget Non-Farm Payrolls, Take US Personal Disposable Income as Lead Economic Indicator
The unreliable Non-Farm Payrolls has far too much importance Interesting to see that markets needed two relatively bad NFPs to really believe that their main indicators, the “Non-Farm Payroll” reports were strongly biased in January and February by a positive weather effect. HFT algorithms that highly influence stock market prices, are not able to take …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/draft-forget-non-farm-payrolls-take-us-personal-disposable-income-as-lead-economic-indicator/
Oil price increases in 2012 and why they are not real
Oil prices Oil prices will rise quickly this year along with the recovery, the Iran issues and last but not least driven by investor demands of yield, implemented in the HFT algos. Interestingly the Iran issues already existed in December, but oil prices were falling, at that moment investors did not believe in a global recovery yet, …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/02/oil-price-increases-in-2012-and-why-they-are-not-real/
Keynesians vs. Anti-Keynesians: How price deflation has kick started the US growth
In recent posts Keynesians were criticized that hikes in the monetary base like Quantitative Easing (QE2) failed to lift the US economy, but it was the debt ceiling that helped to restore confidence in the US and that austerity can lead to GDP growth. Paul Krugman angrily replied that “even a huge rise in the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/02/keynesians-vs-anti-keynesians-how-price-deflation-has-kick-started-the-us-growth/
Deutliche Unterschiede bei Bruttonationaleinkommen und Bruttoinlandsprodukt
Deutliche Unterschiede bei Bruttonationaleinkommen (BNE) und Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) Im Gegensatz zu Irland und Luxemburg, wo das BIP wesentlich grösser als das BNE ist, ist es mit der Schweiz umgekehrt. Aufgrund der globalen Aktivitäten der Schweizer Firmen wuchs das BNE in den letzten Jahren wesentlich stärker als das BIP. Die einzige Ausnahme sind 2007 und 2008, …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2005/11/deutliche-unterschiede-bne-bip/
