Disinflation Finally Starting in Italy The Swiss site preisbarometer.ch is run by the Swiss Consumer Association. Their price data shows that a food basket is 46% more expensive when compared between the German “Kaufland” shop and the Swiss “Coop”. Going to France into “Leclerc” gives you an advantage of 38% against Coop. However, for a …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/06/italian-prices-germany-switzerland/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/eurocrisis/reasons-for-the-spanish-housing-bubble/
In the European household wealth reports by national central banks it became clear that “median” German households are far poorer than many of their European counterparts. Some academics, like De Grauwe, do not trust the national banks’ survey data and elaborated their own statistics. We trust the national central bank surveys and explain why Germans …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/05/french-home-price-bubble/
We think that the Italian, other peripheral economies and also France will follow Japan for a decade or more of balance sheet recession: stagnant wages, falling real estate prices and a reduction of private debt. On one side, we reckon that this might not be so bad because it will help exports and competitiveness, but …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/05/european-balance-sheet-recession/
Cheap ECB interest rates and rising home prices helped to enrich Southern Europeans between 1999 and 2007. Germany’s middle-class and poor, most of them not owning a home, were the ones that financed the expansion in a period of falling real wages and rising profits of German companies. We think that most of this will …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/04/european-transfer-union-north-to-south/
The German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble has become the evil genius of the euro crisis. He has understood that the Cyprus won’t lead to a bank-run and collapse of capital markets. We all know that the US is now recovering.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/wolfgang-schauble-the-evil-genius/
UPDATE June 2013 Why “Median” Italians are Far Richer than Germans After rumours and big expectations, on the 21st of March the Bundesbank published its first report on German households’ finances and wealth; while,in December one for Italy was published. According to the German Bundesbank, the European reports showed a median wealth of around 163’400 …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/european-wealth-italy-germany/
We have insisted in several posts that the northern euro zone is very reluctant to continuously bail out the periphery and in particular its banks. The euro group chief Dijsselbloem has confirmed this now.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/dijsselbloem-the-end-of-bankers-and-bond-holders-moral-hazard/
UPDATE March 25 The final compromise: via Reuters TOP NEWS Detail of EU/IMF bailout agreement with Cyprus Sun, Mar 24 22:19 PM EDT BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Cyprus clinched a last-ditch deal with international lenders on Monday for a 10 billion euro ($13 billion) bailout that will shut down its second largest bank and inflict heavy …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/cyprus-the-final-compromise/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/eurocrisis/transfer-union-north-south/
The initial compromise The Cyprus compromise combines a 10 billion € bailout with European, basically German tax-payers money, that also obliges rich account owners (9.9% levy) – rich Russians and Brits – and poorer account owners (6.75% levy) – Cypriot tax-payers money – to take part in the deal. Initial reactions from Zerohedge over Keynesian mainstream …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/cyprus-updated/
Nicosia will impose a 9.9 percent one-off levy on deposits above 100,000 euros in Cypriot banks. This constitutes maybe the final stage of the euro crisis, with the very last country to be rescued. Or will it be a new escalation and may be the most dangerous one, a bank-run? How many Cyprus clients managed …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/cyprus-tax-on-deposits-how-many-clients-managed-to-successfully-escape-to-switzerland/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/history-background/the-list-german-gold-transactions-1951-2012/
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Wir sind beeindruckt von dem Leitartikel der Weltwoche, der doch ganz unserem Gedankengut entsprochen hat. Der deutsche Kanzlerkandidat Steinbrück hat der deutschen Demokratieverachtung und EU-treuen Überheblichkeit dann noch das i-Tüpfelchen hinzugefügt. “Zwei Clowns haben gewonnen.“ Von Roger Köppel, Die Weltwoche Demokratie ist, wenn es anders herauskommt, als Meinungsführer, Journalisten und tonangebende Politiker gedacht haben. …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/das-beeindruckende-comeback-berlusconis-was-der-%c2%adbundesrat-aus-den-italienischen-wahlen-lernen-sollte/
Deutsche und Schweizer Medien sind oft vereint mit den Europäischen Leadern, Deutschen Exporteuren und den Finanzmärkten im Kampf gegen den gemeinsamen Feind, Silvio Berlusconi, das Enfant Terrible, das Gegenteil der Schweizer Bescheidenheit- und “Bloss nicht zu laut”-Etikette. Berlusconi soll Schuld sein am Abstieg Italiens seit den 90igern, obwohl auch die Linke mit Romani Prodi zweimal …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/arroganz-der-deutschen-medien/
We repost our original paper of July 2012, realizing that already on the political elections level, we were right. We think that Italy, as opposed to Argentina in 2001 and Spain today, would survive a euro exit without big problems. Given the current public and political opinion in both Italy and Germany this scenario has …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/talian-euro-exit/
We reckon that a sustained US recovery will make it possible that the eurozone splits up. Today’s Italian elections are maybe the start of an upcoming Italian euro exit.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/italy-us-recovery-makes-a-eurozone-split-up-possible/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/eurocrisis/no-to-austerity/
When the Swiss National Bank introduced the 1.20 lower limit, it wanted to eliminate the deflationary risks for Switzerland. For a certain period, namely when a global recession was looming in Autumn 2011, and the Swiss franc was hovering around 1.10, this risk was really present. In this post we would like to know if …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/deflationary-risks-comparing-swiss-swedish-and-norwegian-inflation-and-exchange-rates/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/eurocrisis/euro-crisis-the-reasons/
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Arguments in favor of and against the Swedish Krona,as safe-haven during the euros crisis. Extracts from tradingfloor.com
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/is-the-swedish-krona-a-safe-haven/
We think that eventually the euro will be abolished and a Northern Euro will be introduced: politicians and their economic advisors might just be waiting for a calm and secure moment, especially when confronted with Northern European inflation that could become a problem in 5 to 7 years.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/who-says-no-to-austerity-must-say-yes-to-the-northern-euro/
To us, the big theatre surrounding Greece was just a preview of a much bigger crisis that will happen in the coming years in Spain, the upcoming Spanish lost decade(s). Greece was an absolutely desperate case; therefore, everything was quick. It took just two years till we arrived at the official sector participation and yearly German transfer …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/the-upcoming-spanish-lost-decade/
In our post we look on two questions concerning competitiveness for the European periphery: When will local production be cheaper than imported products? Do people have the money to buy these local products? It does not help reducing labor costs if local production costs still more than imported products. The second aspect is: even if …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/fairy-tale-of-rising-competitiveness/
Contributed by Jerome Roos, of Roarmag.org, reflections on a revolution Mexico’s collapse of 1982, the extreme response of the US and IMF and the following Latin American debt crisis marked the birth of an elite consensus that continues to haunt Europe today. As Nick Dearden, Director of the Jubilee Campaign for debt …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/european-follow-latin-american-debt-crisis-model/
The discussion about the future of the Euro: Among a Post-Keynesian, a European Etatist, an Austrian economist and an advocate of a Northern Euro on the French website www.atlantico.fr. The French paper is asking: “Sommet européen : créer un euro du Nord est-il le seul moyen de sauver l’Europe de l’austérité ?” Is the creation of …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/4-different-solutions-for-the-euro-crisis-can-it-be-the-northern-euro-a-discussion/
Claudio Messora is one of the most well known critics of the empowerment of Italian financial oligarchy during the “Reign of the spread” between Italian and German bonds. He is happy about the return of democracy. We want to do find out why the reign of the spread finished so quickly and if it might …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/viva-la-democrazia/
We restate here an older post. Thanks to our readers, we know now which Monti reforms have been really realized and which have got stuck. Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti passed 30 billion euros ($40.3 billion) in tax hikes, 17 billion in pension and 13 billion in spending cuts to shore up public finances, help …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/the-full-list-of-monti-reforms/
With the introduction of the Outright Monetary Transaction Program (OMT) and “conditionality”, that requires austerity and implicitly the reduction of salaries in the European periphery, Merkel and German economists have created consequences similar to a gold-standard.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/german-economists-and-the-euro-crisis/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/eurocrisis/germany-and-the-euro-crisis/
Keeping Greece in euro zone, eurocrats or better “euro morons” have successfully avoided a weak drachma and a following Greek hyperinflation. Instead they successfully created stagflation. Currently European HICP inflation is at 2.5%, far above the max. 2.0% official ECB mandate, but the euro is becoming weaker and weaker. German salaries are rising with 2.6% …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/hyperinflation-successfully-avoided-but-created-stagflation/
Das Ende des Euro rückt näher. Er treibt die Völker wieder auseinander. Neid, Missgunst, Verachtung, selbst Hass sind wieder lebendig geworden. Ludwig Poullain über Erlebtes und Wahrgenommenes, Gedachtes und Empfundenes Der 92 jährige ehemalige WestLB-Vorstandsvorsitzende (in den guten Zeiten der Bank) Dr. hc Ludwig Poullainist vielleicht der wortgewandteste Schreiber unter den Euro-Kritikern. Hier Auszüge seiner …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/11/das-ende-des-euro/
Who Downgrades France MUST downgrade the UK, too After Moody’s downgraded France, we are waiting the next major sovereign to suffer the same fate. According to the must-read interactive graph on the BBC, France now has a medium risk of default, but the UK is still in risk status “low”. According to the BBC, each citizen …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/11/next-downgrade-domino-uk/
Essay based on K. Rybinski: “Eurozone crisis, between meurons and zombies”, another former central banker who opposes the central banks After we (first) missed to mention the former deputy governor of the National Bank of Poland Krzysztof Rybinski in our previous post on former central bankers who oppose the central banks here on Zerohedge, we decided to write a longer essay …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/11/euro-morons-zombie-bankers-rybinski/
We think that Italy, as opposed to Argentina in 2001 and Spain today, would survive a euro exit without big problems. Given the current public and political opinion in both Italy and Germany this scenario has a high probability of happening in the next 2-3 years. This is an updated version of the July …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/11/italian-euro-exit/
Currently European HICP inflation is at 2.5%, far above the 2.0% official ECB mandate, but the euro is becoming weaker and weaker. German salaries are rising with 2.6% per year. At the same time, the ECB cannot hike interest rates, because it wants to provide cheap money to the periphery. The periphery continues to buy German products, even …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/11/ecb-currency-interventions/
In the latest poll, 74.8 percent of the Norwegian population says no to EU membership, while 17.2 said they would vote yes in any referendum. 7.9 percent have not decided. Seven out of ten voters of the ruling party do not share the party’s views on the EU and would have voted no in a possible referendum, …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/74-8-percent-norwegians-against-eu/
Germany’s stance in the euro crisis: More than ESM will not be possible for many years updated on August 31, 2012 German politicians and the German Bundesbank believe that the Euro crisis can be only solved by supply side reforms as formulated in the Euro Plus Pact, reforms that were already successfully introduced during the Thatcher/Reagan era in the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/eurobonds-pure-utopia/
Even in the unlikely case of a fiscal union, the conflict “Draghi against Weidmann”, between the ECB and the Bundesbank will continue for years. The ECB mandate and european inflation figures do not allow for excessive ECB rate cuts or for state financing via the printing press, but Draghi wants to help his struggling …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/draghi-against-weidmann/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/eurocrisis/
For us all roads lead to a euro zone break-up and multiple sovereign defaults. Our reasoning can be summarized as follows: Equities are worthless when associated debt becomes encumbered (risk capital takes the first loss). Equity is not an asset; it is merely the remainder that is left over once debt is subtracted from …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/all-roads-eurozone-disintegration/
We well remember when the über-bailouter of the Financial Times Wolfgang Münchau claimed that except some old economy professors like Otmar Issing nobody in Germany would like to abolish the euro. According to Münchau the euro can be saved only via a fiscal and a banking union. The response to Münchau’s post could be …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/othmar-issing/
Dirk Müller: Die Strasse wird das Euro-Aus erzwingen
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/strasse-wird-das-euro-aus-erzwingen/
Six Reasons Why Italy May Exit Before Spain
1) Rise of the Five Star Movement
2) 44% of Italians view the euro negatively, only 30% favorably. That is biggest negative spread in the eurozone. In Spain more view the euro positively than negative, albeit by a small 4 percentage point spread.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/six-reasons-why-italy-may-exit-the-euro-before-spain-ultimate-occupy-movement/
Here the full text of the European’ Commission’s Memorandum of Understanding with Spain regarding the bailout of the Spanish banking sector released earlier today.
Memorandum of Understanding on Financial-Sector Policy Conditionally
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/full-text-spanish-banks-bailout-memorandum-of-understanding/
Die Aufklärung für den mündigen Bürger über ESM, Eurobonds, Schuldengemeinschaft und Generationengerechtigkeit. Nehmen Sie sich die Zeit und Sie können die kommende Politik Merkels und den weiteren Verlauf der Eurokrise voraussehen, möglicherweise sogar mit ihrem Investment .
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/hans-werner-sinn-schuldengemeinschaft-und-generationengerechtigkeit/
Deutsches Verfassungsgericht braucht 3 Monate für seinen Eilentscheid, der nun eine halbe Hauptsachenentscheidung ist. Die Wahl im Gericht zwischen der system-relevanten Bank ESM und dem “Herausschmeissen” der Südländer aus dem Euro und vieles aus dem Verfassungsgericht.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/update-vom-deutschen-verfassungsgericht-11-juli/
The German constitutional court will need up to 3 months for the injunction. Weidmann’s critic on the ESM in detail. Estimations of German liability between 900 bln. and 2 trillion EUR.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/update-from-german-constitutional-court/
What is the injunction procedure of the German constitutional court exactly about. What are the arguments of the Anti-ESM and the Pro-ESM fractions ?
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/german-constitutional-court-decision/
Voters are strongly against many other European utopias The newest poll of the Forsa institute, here in the left-wing Stern and the conservative Welt, shows that Germans are strongly against Eurobonds and many more European “utopias”, as we called it. The German chancellor Angela Merkel recently connected her life with the fulfillment of the voters wish to …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/german-voters-strongly-against-eurobonds/
Wolfgang Münchau endorsed many of our arguments Wolfgang Münchau, Financial Times, has endorsed many of our arguments of our Friday’s opinion about the Euro summit where we stated that there was nothing really new. Münchau even claims that “The real victor in Brussels was Merkel.”
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/wolfgang-munchau-ft-merkel-was-the-winner-of-the-euro-summit/
At the euro summit today there was essentially nothing what was really surprising. We wonder what markets are so excited about.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/at-euro-summit-there-was-nothing-really-new-what-was-party-about/
German chancellor Angela Merkel today confirmed the content of our article that Eurobonds are pure utopia. She vows ”No Eurobonds as Long as I Live”.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/merkel-no-eurobonds-as-long-as-i-live-hollande-eurobonds-will-take-up-to-10-years/
The German “Der Focus”,one of the most successful weekly magazines, titles “Can Merkel stop the Eurobonds ?” Der Focus claims that Eurobonds have the following issues:
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/can-merkel-stop-the-eurobonds-german-der-focus-on-eurobonds/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/eurocrisis/the-german-stance-on-the-euro-crisis/
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Words heart on German street in 2010 during the first Greek bailouts were that Germany should obtain the Greek islands as collateral if Greece is not able to pay back the debt to Germany. But even today German n-tv is reporting about many Greek real estate brokers that are currently delling islands. If it is not that type …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/the-german-supply-side-reforms/
A retrospective from the year 2030 on two decades of failed european integration policy and 10 years of successful disintegration policy The following essay shows that currency regimes come and go over the time. Nothing is stable with the time, especially the use of a currency. What has never happened in history is the use …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/the-history-of-the-north-euro-neuro-introduction-a-retrospective-from-the-year-2030/
Just a little wrap-up of two tweets read in 5 minutes, to which I finally added a bit more out of my recent Tweets. One Tweet: The British finance minister Osborne has emphasized that the euro zone needs to protect its peripheral economies. “The whole of Europe needs to become more competitive and productive. That …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/italy-about-the-hypocrisy-of-politicians-and-the-blindness-of-the-english-speaking-financial-papers/
Abstract In the following article we will explain which types of crisis occur in the euro area and will argue that this crisis will last at least another fifteen years. (1) Competitiveness crisis: Before the euro introduction peripheral countries regularly saw their currency depreciate against the German Mark and helped them to increase their competitiveness. …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/03/why-the-euro-crisis-may-last-another-fifteen-years/
After the announcement of the floor in the EUR/CHF pair, many predicted the Swedish and the Norwegian Krone to take the place of the Swiss Franc as European save-haven against the Euro turmoil (http://on.ft.com/pKSJ1V). Both countries possess a low level of debt, positive trade balance and very competitive economies.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/01/the-new-european-save-havens-trade-sekchf-and-nokchf/
The Wirtschaftswoche reports about the real reasons of ECB Chief economist Jürgen Stark’s resignation. The reasons are rather political, namely a protest against European governments:
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2011/12/jurgen-starks-resignation-and-the-ecb-2005-warning-about-labor-cost-divergence-in-the-euro-zone/
Extracts from Think Spain. October 2005. Foreign companies who manufacture cars in Spain are facing a fresh crisis. In addition to the problems of VW subsidiary Seat, various others are being forced to take decisions about the renewal of a number of different models which are reaching the end of their life-cycles. While …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2005/10/spanish-ailing-car-industry/
