Category Archive: SNB CHF

Swiss Franc and Swiss Economy: The Overview Questions

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/chf/chf-appreciation-swiss-economy/

SNB First Quarter Results: 1.7% annualized Yield on Seigniorage, 2% annualized Loss on FX Rate Change

The main task of a central bank occupied with QEE (quantitative easing or exchange intervention) is to obtain higher gains on seigniorage than it loses with its “ever appreciating” currency. Otherwise its equity capital would be absorbed. In the first quarter of 2014, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was unable to accomplish this task.  

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/05/snb-first-quarter-results-1-7-annualized-yield-seigniorage-2-annualized-loss-fx-rate-change/

Is the SNB Intervening Again?

Update March 21, 2014: Total SNB sight deposits increased to 367.8 bln. CHF, but flows reverted a bit. Foreign banks and “non-banks” reduced their CHF exposure at the SNB to 50.8 bln, possibly converting a part of the difference into USD. Dollars are more useful when sanctions will hurt both Russian and German firms. On …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/03/snb-intervening-again/

2013 SNB’s Valuation Gains 14 billion CHF on Stocks, but Losses of 35 bln. on Gold, FX and Bonds

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is reporting a loss of CHF 9.1 billion for the year 2013 (2012: profit of CHF 6.0 billion). Valuation losses on gold holdings amounting to some CHF 15.2 billion contrast with a profit of CHF 3.1 billion on foreign currency positions and a net result of CHF 3.4 billion from …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/03/2013-snb-valuation-gains-14-billion-chf-stocks-losses-35-bln-gold-fx-bonds/

SNB First Quarter Results: 1.7% annualized Yield on Seigniorage, 2% annualized Loss on FX Rate Change

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/snb/2014-q1-results-seignoriage/

15 Billion SNB Losses on Gold in 2013, But 40 Billion SNB Profit on Gold between 2000 and 2012

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/snb/snb-profit-gold-results/

George Dorgan at Swiss Young Liberals: Slides

On Friday the 7th of February at 19.00, George Dorgan is presenting his outlook on the Swiss Franc. He explains if and when the Swiss National Bank is able to generate profits again. Moreover he discusses the influence of the two referendums “Save Our Swiss Gold” and “Against Mass Immigration” on the Swiss Franc and …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/02/george-dorgan-swiss-young-liberals/

Weekly Monetary Data: History of Sight Deposits at SNB

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Basel III, Swiss Finish and the regulatory minimum capital requirements

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SNB Increases Weight of Countercyclical Capital Buffer for Banks

The SNB requires banks to raise the weight of the counter-cyclical capital buffers” (CCB) by holding extra capital worth 1 per cent of the risk-weighted assets in their mortgage portfolios.

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2014/01/snb-increases-weight-countercyclical-capital-buffer/

Swiss National Bank Monetary Policy Mandate – 2007 version vs. today

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SNB Q3/2013 Composition of Reserves

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ECB rate cut creates complex situation for SNB

Some extracts from ForexLive.com Says Thomas Jordan. Need to wait to assess impact of ECB rate cut Wasn’t totally surprised by the cut Interest rates will remain low in Switzerland Low rates may lead to property bubble risk which SNB will respond to if necessary SNB monitoring property market which is already in difficult situation …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/11/ecb-rate-cut-snb/

Weekly Newspaper on Swiss National Bank and Swiss Franc

  Feel free to click into the other categories “politics”, “business”, #chf, #snb in order to see more articles.

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/11/weekly-newspaper-on-swiss-national-bank-november4/

In Which Positions Does the SNB Win and Where Does it Lose Money: Details on the Q3 Results

UPDATE October 31, The official press release focused on the results for Q1 to Q3. The loss was 6.4 billion after a 7.3 bln. CHF loss in the first two quarters. Over all three quarters especially gold and the yen weakened the central bank’s positions. For the third quarter, it means that income was positive …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/10/estimate-q3-2013-results/

Weekly Newspaper on Swiss National Bank, Edition October 28

The SNB recently published the latest real effective exchange rate (REER). According to that the franc was only 7% overvalued against the base year 1999. Credit Suisse (CS) has taken some more factors than the REER under consideration: for them the fair value of the EUR/CHF is now 1.22, while the dollar was still undervalued. …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/10/weekly-swiss-national-bank-oct-28/

SNB’s Jordan Responds to the Critique from the Peterson Institute: What They Forgot to Ask Him …

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The Risks on the Rising SNB Money Supply

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No SNB Intervention: Massive Swiss M0 Increase due to Post Finance Transformation into a Bank

  Anybody wondering about the massive M0 Increase in Friday’s SNB IMF data: As we know, the monetary base M0 is the main mean of financing currency interventions. It consists of bank notes and sight deposits of domestic banks. However the SNB did not intervene, it was no money printing this time. Deposits of Swiss Post …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/09/m0-increase-post-finance/

Danthine: SNB would end franc cap once it raises interest rates

It was obvious already at the latest SNB Monetary Policy Assessment, the SNB is becoming more and more hawkish. At the forefront is its ueber-hawk Jean-Pierre Danthine, the person responsible for the overheating Swiss housing market. He has now announced: SNB would end franc limit once it raises interest rates The Swiss National Bank will …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/08/danthine-snb-would-end-franc-cap-once-it-raises-interest-rates/

A Nationalization of Swiss Foreign Assets? SNB Owns 56% of Swiss Net International Investment Position

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SNB Q2/2013 Composition of Reserves

We regularly publish the SNB asset structure by currency, rating & duration, they might be a template for the tactical asset allocation in these dimensions (CHF certainly excluded) for other fixed income and/or rather conservative asset managers. Total Balance Sheet and Liabilities The total balance sheet size decreased from 511 bln. francs to 488 bln. …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/08/snb-q22013-composition-of-reserves/

A Nationalization of Swiss Foreign Assets? SNB Owns 56% of Swiss Net International Investment Position

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/snb/snb-swiss-net-international-investment-position/

Our Detailed Estimate of SNB Q2 Results: 17 Billion Francs Loss, The Reality 18 Billion

UPDATE: July 30th, 2013: Our estimate for the quarterly loss missed the reality by 1 billion francs. The quarter results: 18.3 billion francs loss. The loss for H1 was 7.3 billion CHF. July 1st 2013: We estimate that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) obtained a loss of 17.3 billion francs in the second quarter 2013. …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/07/estimate-q2-results/

SNB Monetary Assessment June 2013: Very risk-averse, nearly hawkish tone

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) delivered a, for her standards, very hawkish monetary assessment with the focus on the risks in the financial sector. This does not come as a surprise for us. Each time, after the United States has recovered from a crisis – just like now – inflation and risks increased in Switzerland. …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/06/snb-monetary-assessment-june-2013/

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/06/snb-cap-2014/

SNB to Follow the Bank of Japan? Part1

Questions to George Dorgan Is there any chance that the SNB or other central banks could follow the BOJ and just depreciate the currency? George Dorgan: What did the BoJ do? Monetary easing and talk down the yen in a mercantilist style. A central bank is able to talk down a currency only if there …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/06/snb-follow-boj/

SNB Q1 Results: Bottom-Fishing Cheap Yen, Increases Equity Share with Gains and Margin Debt

We regularly publish the SNB asset structure by currency, rating & duration, they might be a template for the tactical asset allocation in these dimensions (CHF certainly excluded) for other fixed income and/or rather conservative asset managers. Composition of SNB Forex Reserves, Q1/2013 With the strong results of 11.2 billion francs, the SNB reduced the …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/04/snb-bottom-fishing-yen/

SNB Reserves Rise by 8 bln. CHF Thanks to Stronger USD, GBP, CAD and some FX Purchases

In March 2013, the foreign currency reserves of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) rose by 8 bln. CHF from 437 bln. to 445 bln. mostly thanks to valuation gains on US dollar, sterling and Canadian dollar. full details

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/04/snb-reserves-rise-by-8-bln-chf-thanks-to-stronger-usd-gbp-and-cad/

IMF Sees Considerable Risks on SNB Balance Sheet

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SNB Monetary Assessment March 2013

In its monetary assessment the SNB maintains the EUR/CHF floor and warned against further risks in the euro zone. The SNB has downgraded the inflation path to -0.2% (previously-0.1%) in 2013 and +0.2% (+0.4%) in 2014.We do not completely agree.

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/snb-monetary-assessment-march-2013/

SNB has Won the Risk Aversion Battle, When Will the Inflation Battle Start?

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Will SNB FX Investments Yield Enough Until U.S. Inflation Starts?

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/snb/snb-investments-yield/

Composition of SNB Reserves Q4, 2012, Yield on Investment

We regularly publish the SNB asset structure by currency, rating & duration, they might be a template for the tactical asset allocation in these dimensions (CHF certainly excluded) for other fixed income asset managers. Moreover we publish the yield on investment.   Composition of SNB Forex Reserves, Q4 2012 The Swiss National Bank (SNB) saw …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/composition-snb-reserves/

What Ernst Baltensperger Got Wrong: Why SNB Losses Might Not Be Recovered By Income on Reserves

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SNB Liabilities (deposits & bank notes) at New Record High

SNB sight deposits are rising again, by 700 million CHF in one week. But the amount of cash in form of bank notes and coins has risen by 10% since September. It seems that the central bank is now not only virtually printing (via sight deposits) but also physically. SNB liabilities reached a new record high. Details

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/snb-liabilities-deposits-and-bank-notes-reach-new-record-high/

SNB Remains the Only Central Bank Currency Warrior: The Japanese do not Fight, they Talk

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The “Get Stress in May and Relax in October Effect” for the SNB

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Target2 Balances and SNB Currency Reserves. They are Both the Same Concept

We show that Target2 imbalances and the SNB currency reserves represent the same issues, namely current account surpluses/deficits and capital flight. Therefore it makes sense to compare them, in total and by inhabitant.

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/snb/target2-and-snb-currency-reserves/

SNB Profit 6 Billion CHF over the Year, 10.9 Billion Loss in Q4/2012

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) obtained a profit of around 6 billion francs for the year 2012 (full statement).  The profit was reduced from 16.9 billion francs between Q1 and Q3 2012, which means that in Q4/2012 the bank had a loss of around 10.9 billion francs. The profit in gold fell from 6.2 billion …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/snb-profit-6-billion-chf-over-the-year-10-billion-loss-in-q42012/

Yearly Swiss Doomsaying and Swissmem’s Control over the Swiss National Bank

  The same as every year in December/January: Swiss media and economists are doomsaying. This time they claim that the banking industry and the UBS job losses will bring Switzerland into trouble. Once again they do not understand that the Great Recession was only to a small part a banking crisis, but it was mostly a …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/swiss-doomsaying/

The Big Swiss Faustian Bargain: Differences between SNB, ECB and Fed Money Printing Explained

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Why the SNB will not Imitate Hong Kong, but Potentially Singapore

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Rising Sight Deposits at SNB Means Rising SNB Debt

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SNB’s history of balance sheet: Monthly bulletin

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Upcoming SNB Events

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History of SNB monetary policy assessments vs. economic data

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SNB Balance Sheet Expansion

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Because They Knew What They Were Doing: The Parallels between European and SNB Leaders

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SNB’s IMF data

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SNB Monetary Policy Assessment December 2012: (Nearly) Full Text

  The SNB decided to maintain the floor at 1.20 and the Libor target between 0% and 0.25%. As we expected in our outlook on the assessment, there were still important downwards drivers of inflation after the strong appreciation of the franc. Therefore, the SNB has moved its inflation expectations downwards for 2013 to minus 0.1% …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/snb-monetary-policy-assessment-december-2012/

Warum die SNB nicht Hongkong, sondern Singapur imitieren wird

Im Gegensatz zu Hongkong mit dem USD/HKD-Peg kann die Schweiz ein Currency Board, einen fixen Kurs zum Euro nicht für Jahre durchhalten. Die Gründe auf snbchf.com

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/warum-die-schweiz-nicht-einfach-hongkong-spielen-kann/

How Currency Speculators Help the SNB to Fight against Ordinary Investors

A discussion in the investor forum made clear how currency speculators currently help the SNB to maintain the floor against normal investors. A situation that was different in August/September 2011, when the SNB had to fight against these speculators.   A discussion in the investor forum Seeking Alpha: part one   Based on our analysis of …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/speculators-help-the-snb-to-fight-against-real-investors/

SNB Valuation Losses in October: Around 6 Billion Francs

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) had valuation losses of around 6 billion francs in October due to the weaker EUR/CHF exchange rate and a weaker gold price.

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/11/snb-valuation-losses-in-october-6-billion-francs/

Die Wiederwahl Obamas bedeutet nichts Gutes für die Schweiz

  Barack Obama war und ist der präferierte Kandidat vieler Schweizer. Obama scheint der Mann von Welt zu sein, während vom konservativen Mitt Romney eher feindselige Politik gegen Russland, China und Iran zu erwarten ist. Daher sind die Neutralität- und Frieden-liebenden Schweizer eher auf Obamas Seite. Aber auch wirtschaftspolitisch scheinen viele Eidgenossen Obama zu mögen. …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/11/die-wiederwahl-obamas-bedeutet-nichts-gutes-fur-die-schweiz/

SNB Results Q3 2012: SNB Radically Reduces Euro Share from 60% to 48%

SNB Q3 Profits: 10 billion francs   The Swiss National Bank (SNB) radically reduced its euro share, in the third quarter from 60% to 48%, and bought US dollars and sterling instead. In the second quarter, however, it increased the euro share from 51% to 60% and concentrated on buying euros. Given that the EUR/USD was …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/11/snb-q3-results-2012/

How the SNB Destroyed Ashraf Laidi’s EUR/USD 1.35 Party

Trend Follower Ashraf Laidi Loses Against the Contrarian Investor SNB The currency strategist Ashraf Laidi recently evoked a EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.35 thanks to the risk appetite after the easing operations of the Fed and the ECB. We show that he and the masses of his Forex rooters actually traded against a big central …

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Trade Like a Central Bank: Buy EUR/USD at 1.24 and sell at 1.30! .. SNB

Composition of SNB Forex Reserves, Q3 2012  The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reduced the share of euros in the third quarter substantially from 60% in Q2 to 48% in Q3 and increased dollar and pound positions. The SNB bought 80 billion euros or more when the common currency was trading around 1.24$, especially at the end of …

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Did the SNB Front-Run ECB Decisions Far Ahead of Hedge Funds?

We think that the Swiss National Bank invested far more in Italian and Spanish bonds  than analysts like Standard and Poor’s expected and was able to front-run ECB decisions. This new style of hedge funds, formerly called “central banks”, can refinance at zero percent and is able to show a lot better performance than the …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/did-the-snb-front-run-ecb-decisions-far-ahead-of-hedge-funds/

SNB Monetary Data Week October 26

Seasonal effects, the good months for the SNB and the US economy, but weaker ones for emerging markets and Switzerland Despite the seasonal effects between October and March, the SNB is not able to sell currency reserves consistently. Traditionally the USD gets stronger and stocks rise over the autumn months till January. This year’s stocks appreciation was possibly already anticipated …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/snb-monetary-data-week-october-26/

SNB Monetary Data Week October 19

Seasonal effects, the good months for the SNB and the US economy, but weaker ones for emerging markets and Switzerland Given that the seasonal effects between October to March have started, the SNB might be able to sell some currency reserves. Traditionally both the USD gets stronger and stocks rise over the autumn months till January. This year’s stocks appreciation was …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/snb-monetary-data-week-october-19/

SNB Monetary Data Week October 12

Seasonal effects, the good months for the SNB and the US economy, but weaker ones for emerging markets and Switzerland, have started Given that the seasonal effects between October to March have started, the SNB might be able to sell some currency reserves. Traditionally both the USD gets stronger and stocks rise over the autumn months till January. This year’s stocks …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/snb-monetary-data-week-october-1/

IMF Data: SNB Forex Reserves and Gold in September 2012

This link  on the SNB website shows the data the central bank provides to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It shows the SNB Forex and gold reserves in the last month. It is so-called “IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SNB Data)” It is released together with the international investment position, some monetary aggregates and the balance of payments two weeks after …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/imf-data-snb-forex-reserves-and-gold-in-september-2012/

SNB Monetary Data Week October 5

Seasonal effects, the good months for the SNB and the US economy, but weaker ones for emerging markets and Switzerland, have started Given that the seasonal effects between October to March have started, the SNB might be able to sell some currency reserves. Traditionally the United States and the USD dollar become stronger and stocks rise over the autumn months …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/snb-monetary-data-week-october-5/

Is Standard and Poor’s a Rating Agency or a Rumor Agency ?

  Standard and Poor’s critique of the Swiss National Bank, Part 2, extracts from our full report       As many readers of our blog know, we are not the best of friends with the current Swiss National Bank (SNB) policy: we recently published a paper claiming that the SNB will go bankrupt and …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/is-standard-and-poors-a-rating-or-a-rumor-agency/

SNB Monetary Data Week of September 28

Seasonal effects, the good months for the SNB and the US economy, but weaker ones for emerging markets and Switzerland, have started Given that the seasonal effects between October to March have started, the SNB might be able to sell some currency reserves. Traditionally the United States and the USD dollar become stronger over the autumn months till …

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Do Swiss companies prefer to hold cash at the SNB instead of local banks ?

The most recent SNB monetary data show that more and more companies are increasing their deposits at the central bank at a quicker speed than local banks. Might this be missing trust in the Swiss banking system ?

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/snb-monetary-data-week-ending-september-21/

Swiss Net International Investment Position Increases by 64 Billion Francs

Swiss Gross National Income (GNI) rises by 1.8% in Q2, after Q1 +0.5%   According to the latest SNB Monthly Bulletin, the Swiss net international investment position (NIIP) has improved by 64.5 billion francs. The Gross National Income (GNI) rises by 1.8% in Q2.     The SNB currency reserves rose by 128 Bln. Francs in the …

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The next SNB rumor: Wall Street Journal and our response

A bit breathlessly….     The next SNB rumor story comes from the so-well established Wall Street Journal, its columnist Nick Hastings. WSJ: The Swiss National Bank was bold before. And the central bank would be well advised to be just as bold again. When the SNB announced just over a year ago that it was setting a …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/the-next-rumor-wall-street-journal/

SNB prints nearly 5 billion francs in one week, FX traders poised to get ripped off

  As we expected in our post “What’s this crazy movement in EUR/CHF ? SNB Floor Hike ?“, long-time investors, global macro funds and US investment banks are moving into gold and the Swiss franc again.  The SNB had to buy euros and print new Swiss francs of around 5 billion francs last week, as …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/september7-snb-prints/

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The Full English Translation of the Interview with Thomas Jordan

  Here a translation of the interview with the president of the Swiss National Bank, Thomas Jordan, in the finance magazine ECO of the Swiss television SF1. Here the original German video. Question: Given that the SNB has reserves of over 200 bln. Euros, are you still able to sleep ? Jordan: We are in a …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/the-full-text-of-the-interview-with-thomas-jordan/

The Swiss television interview with Thomas Jordan, or was it Leonid Brezhnev ?

   Today Thomas Jordan gave a quick interview in the Swiss television. Everything was so well prepared and as sterilized. Thomas Jordan learned all answers by heart and was answered the questions about one second after the question was asked. It reminded me of an interview in Soviet television with former Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev. Each …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/the-interview-with-thomas-jordan/

SNB only major central bank missing at Jackson Hole, are important SNB decisions looming ?

  The Jackson Hole Symposium is traditionally a meeting of global central bankers, here the 2010 attendance list. This year it takes place between August 30 and September 1. Central bankers assemble  The annual economic symposium for central bankers staged by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City begins in Jackson Hole, Colorado (until September 1). …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/snb-not-at-jackson-hole/

SNB, the Most Relevant Pages

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SNB zwingt jeden Schweizer implizit 73% seines Einkommens von 2012 in Euros anzulegen

Mit dem SNB Zwischenbericht heute wurde es klar, dass die Schweizerische Nationalbank 77% der im zweiten Quartal um 125 Milliarden Franken erhöhten Devisenreserven in Euro investiert hat. Die Abhängigkeit vom Euro ist so gross geworden, so dass die Schweiz gezwungen sein könnte, ein Teil der Eurozone zu werden, wenn sie einen riesigen Verlust vermeiden will. …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/73prozent-ch-einkommen-in-euro/

How Switzerland Implicitly Joins the Eurozone: SNB Obliges each Swiss to Invest 73% of 2012 income in Euros

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/snb/switzerland-joins-eurozone-snb-investments/

SNB results: SNB invested 77% of the huge Q2 increase in reserves into Euros. Peg at risk ?

  The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reported a profit of 6.5 billion Swiss Franc for the first half year (H1). After a loss of 1.7 bln. francs in the first quarter (Q1), it had a 8.2 billion profit for the second quarter (Q2). The Q2 SNB results of 8.2 bln. CHF were less than our …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/snb-reports-6-5-billion-profit-for-h1-8-2-billion-q2/

SNB Results: SNB poised for 10 billion CHF quarterly profit

  On July 31st the Swiss National Bank will publish interim results for the second quarter 2012. Already now we offer  an estimate to our readers. Our estimate does not cover the central bank’s Forex trading results, they are difficult to estimate. A central bank is not a day trader, therefore the influence should be limited. …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/snb-results-q2-first-estimate/

SNB Zwischenbericht 2. Quartal 2012: Nationalbank möglicherweise mit mehr als 10 Milliarden Gewinn

  Am 31. Juli um 7.30 Uhr wird die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) den Zwischenbericht für das zweite Quartal 2012 herausgeben. Wir offerieren unseren Lesern schon jetzt eine Schätzung.  Wir rechnen mit einem Gewinn von 10,65 Milliarden CHF dank der starken Erhöhung der Devisenreserven in den Monaten Mai und Juni und der Abschwächung des Franken gegenüber dem US-Dollar, …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/snb-zwischenbericht-2-quartal-2012-eine-schatzung/

At EUR/CHF 1.10 SNB with 31 bln. loss, each Swiss losing 150 francs per week

The Swiss National Bank would realize a loss of 31 bln. francs, if it accepted a EUR/CHF exchange rate of 1.10 instead 1.20 and if we assume that the Swissie also appreciates against the dollar and other currencies

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/eurchf-1-10-snb-31-bln-loss-each-swiss-losing-150-francs-week/

The win of the pro-bailout parties in the Greek elections was no win for the SNB

  The win for the pro-bailout parties in the Greek elections was no win for the Swiss National Bank (SNB), even if the fear of an immediate bank-run and extreme money flows into Switzerland are avoided.  Also the fact that QE3 is not coming in the next weeks did not help the SNB.

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/the-win-of-the-pro-bailout-parties-in-the-greek-elections-was-no-win-for-the-snb/

Is the SNB prepared for the black swan ?

Will the SNB printing policy lead to inflation and a housing bust when Germany leaves the Euro ? Recently the voices for a German euro exit have become louder and louder. The most recent voice comes from Biderman , the FT says that the rise of German Bunds holds the secret how the eurozone crisis will …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/is-the-snb-prepared-for-the-black-swan/

Another week, another 14 bln. francs printed

According to the newest monetary data, in the week ending June 8th, the unsterialized money supply (as measured in sight deposits of domestic and foreign banks and deposits by the Swiss confederation) increased by 14 billion Swiss francs.

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/another-week-another-14-bln-francs-printed/

The Swiss National Bank and the EUR/CHF floor have become a political football

  How the SNB Chairman Jordan has invited hedge funds and smart investors to a risk-free, high-return guaranteed investment in Swiss francs A wrap-up of Swiss newspapers for non-German literates In parallel to the start of the UEFA Euro 2012, the Swiss National Bank and its policy towards the EUR/CHF exchange rate has become a political …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/the-swiss-national-bank-and-the-eurchf-floor-have-become-a-political-football/

The “Sell in May, come back in October” effect and its equivalent for the SNB

  The “Sell in May, come back in October” effect It is the same seasonal anomaly nearly every year: The statistically flawed (see here and here) Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report delivers some good winter readings with 200K new jobs, this time additionally fuelled by a weather effect; biased data that let hard-core Keynesian policy makers doubt Okun’s law. Consequently the stock markets rally …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/snb-sell-in-may-come-back-in-october/

A central bank running suicide ? SNB prints at pace never seen since EUR/CHF parity in August 2011

  The most recent money supply data from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has shown increases of huge amounts. As compared with its loss of 19 bln. francs in 2010 (3% percent of the Swiss GDP), the central bank printed tremendous 17.3 bln. in the week ending in June 1st and 13 bln. in the one …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/a-central-bank-running-suicide-snb-prints-at-pace-never-seen-since-eurchf-parity-in-august-2011/

CNBC rumors: Different peg methods for the SNB

There are currently rumors going on on CNBC that the SNB is planning something this night. As we explained here, the SNB had to strongly restart the printing press and printed tremendous 13 bln francs in one week. Moreover, they probably sold some of their in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 acquired GBP, JYP and …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/cnbc-rumors-that-something-is-going-on-at-snb-6-possibilities-for-us/

SNB switched from selling euros to buying euros, might sell GBP

As explained in our previous post, at least till May 4th the Swiss National Bank could have been a net buyer of GBP, USD and JPY selling Euros off their balance sheet. In the week of May 11, QE3 talk came up together with a bad Phily Fed reading. From then the SNB had to acquire …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/snb-switched-from-selling-euros-to-buying-euros/

Huge rise in Currency Reserves: The SNB has restarted the printing press

The game for the Swiss National Bank seems to have changed completely. Again the central bank had increase money supply, as measured by deposits at the SNB by local banks and other sight deposits, this time even by 13219 mil. francs (source). This money printing implies that the SNB had to buy in Euros in …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/huge-rise-in-currency-reserves-the-snb-has-restarted-the-printing-press/

SNB’s Jordan admits that EUR/CHF floor will not be raised

For the first time the chairman of the Swiss National Bank Jordan has admitted that the EUR/CHF floor of 1.20 will not be raised. In an interview with the Swiss Sonntagszeitung, here also cited by Bloomberg, he said:

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/snbs-jordan-admits-that-eurchf-floor-will-not-be-raised/

Rumors about tax on Swiss deposits for foreigners and further SNB measures: SNB begging for pips

Exactly when the US had a relatively good Markit Flash PMI, rumors are sent out that deposits in CHF for foreigners should be taxed.  To send out this rumor together with good US data seems to be intentional. According to Banque CIC the SNB has declined to comment. We remember the last SNB meeting when similar rumors circulated.

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/rumors-about-tax-on-swiss-deposits-for-foreigners-and-further-snb-measures-snb-begging-for-pips/

Why the floor will never be lifted to 1.25 ?

Or why the biggest opponents of the SNB are not Weltwoche and the SVP (Swiss People’s Party) but the Federal Reserve

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/why-the-floor-will-never-be-lifted-to-1-25/

Will the SNB double or triple the forex reserves before they give in ?

Some economists have claimed that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be always able to maintain the floor. As opposed to George Soros’ defeat of the Bank of England, the SNB is able to print money ad infinitum, whereas the BoE had limited currency reserves to support sterling. The question, however, is where this “infinitum” …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/will-the-snb-double-or-triple-the-forex-reserves-before-they-give-in/

Why the SNB fixed the peg at 1.2010 and not at 1.2000 ?

As we have showed in a preceding post, the SNB seems to have decided the peg the franc to the euro at 1.20. Therefore the SNB traders were actively selling euros and buying francs even close to the floor limit of 1.20. But then in the beginning of April some Asian traders managed to push the …

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/why-the-snb-fixed-the-peg-at-1-2010-and-not-at-1-2000/

Big bid on behalf of the SNB ?

Markets report a 7 bln. bid on behalf of the SNB. We will report asap the SNB May 25th monetary data which will give a prove of these rumors. Here the May 18th data where the SNB had to raise additional 3.7 bln. CHF to buy euros.

Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/big-bid-on-behalf-of-the-snb/

Is the play time over for the SNB ? SNB Buys Euros Again, but the EUR/CHF does not move a pip

As also noticed by Credit Suisse, the Swiss National Bank had to buy euros and sell Swiss francs in the week of May 11th to May 18th. Their recent easy strategy to sell euros and buy Swiss Francs and to diversify from euros into other currencies may not continue.

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Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/is-the-play-time-over-for-the-snb-snb-buying-euros-again-but-the-eurchf-does-not-move-a-pip/

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