Once again SNB chairman Thomas Jordan spoke about negative interest rates. What should he do? Since August 2012, the ECB does not pay interest on banks’ deposit facility. The consequence was that banks removed these excess reserves at the ECB. Jordan impressed FX traders and they pushed the EUR/CHF over 1.2650, to its highest level …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/05/negative-rates-swiss-franc/
CHF: The long way to a risk-on currency The Swiss franc continues to weaken. We think that the EUR/CHF might top close to 1.30 in the coming months. After that the franc should slowly improve again because it will become a sort of risk-on currency. As basis you should understand that the Swiss franc has …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/05/eurchf-1-30/
We regularly publish the SNB asset structure by currency, rating & duration, they might be a template for the tactical asset allocation in these dimensions (CHF certainly excluded) for other fixed income and/or rather conservative asset managers. Composition of SNB Forex Reserves, Q1/2013 With the strong results of 11.2 billion francs, the SNB reduced the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/04/snb-bottom-fishing-yen/
The Swiss National Bank speaks out against the gold initiative and reveals that the Swiss gold is stored mostly in Switzerland and 20% in the UK and 10% in Canada. There is no Swiss gold in the United States according to SNB chairman Jordan. We speculate that the gold stored in the U.S. got transferred …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/04/swiss-gold-location-gold-initiative/
Not even the Swiss National Bank seems to understand the CHF price movements and why it is currently weakening. In this post we indicate some fundamental reasons why the franc could weaken. (This post contains a movie which should start immediately)
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/04/price-movements-of-the-swiss-franc/
In March 2013, the foreign currency reserves of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) rose by 8 bln. CHF from 437 bln. to 445 bln. mostly thanks to valuation gains on US dollar, sterling and Canadian dollar. full details
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/04/snb-reserves-rise-by-8-bln-chf-thanks-to-stronger-usd-gbp-and-cad/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/snb/parallels-european-snb-leaders/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/snb/imf-sees-considerable-risks-on-snb-balance-sheet/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/snb/snb-results-will-snb-fx-investments-yield-enough-until-inflation-starts/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/snb/snb-has-won-the-risk-aversion-battle-when-will-the-inflation-battle-start/
If the upcoming referendum “Save our Swiss gold” wins, then the SNB must increase gold holdings from 10% to 20% of its balance sheet. This possibly implies an end of the CHF cap.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/swiss-gold-referendum/
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) judges “that the SNB’s net revenue is subject to large fluctuations, and sizable losses could occur if an appreciation of the Swiss franc was to take place before foreign exchange interventions were unwound.”
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/imf-risks-on-snb-balance-sheet/
In its monetary assessment the SNB maintains the EUR/CHF floor and warned against further risks in the euro zone. The SNB has downgraded the inflation path to -0.2% (previously-0.1%) in 2013 and +0.2% (+0.4%) in 2014.We do not completely agree.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/snb-monetary-assessment-march-2013/
With the weakening of emerging markets growth and the strengthening of the United States, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has won the first battle in the war against financial markets. We judge that until the second battle, the “inflation battle”, starts, some years will pass.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/snb-has-won-the-risk-aversion-battle-when-will-the-inflation-battle-start/
Readers will have read already the headline news. We repeat the data under a different perspective: We focus on income and yields for foreign exchange positions and gold in order to see if the SNB is able to survive a franc appreciation during an inflationary period in the U.S. and Europe. We leave out the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/snb-results/
We regularly publish the SNB asset structure by currency, rating & duration, they might be a template for the tactical asset allocation in these dimensions (CHF certainly excluded) for other fixed income asset managers. Moreover we publish the yield on investment. Composition of SNB Forex Reserves, Q4 2012 The Swiss National Bank (SNB) saw …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/composition-snb-reserves/
Opposed to the leading Swiss monetary economist, Ernst Baltensperger, we think that the risk of losses on the SNB balance sheet and of an asset price bubble might be more important than the danger of upcoming Swiss inflation.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/what-ernst-baltensberger-got-wrong/
SNB sight deposits are rising again, by 700 million CHF in one week. But the amount of cash in form of bank notes and coins has risen by 10% since September. It seems that the central bank is now not only virtually printing (via sight deposits) but also physically. SNB liabilities reached a new record high. Details
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/snb-liabilities-deposits-and-bank-notes-reach-new-record-high/
Central Bank data shows that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) remains the only central bank that strongly participated in currency wars with Foreign Exchange interventions, while such “physical” interventions by the Bank of Japan remain very limited. The recent Japanese FX interventions were purely verbal, while hedge funds and FX traders warriors acted on behalf of …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/snb-only-currency-warrior/
We reckon that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will have issues maintaining the EUR/CHF floor in the longer term, because the expected yields on Swiss investments abroad will not be sufficiently higher than the yield on investments in Switzerland. Therefore, outflows in the capital account of the Swiss balance of payments cannot cover the persistent …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/swiss-capital-account-neutralise-current-account-surpluses/
Comparing Private Credit and Money Supply between Switzerland and the Euro Zone The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has decided to propose the establishment of the countercyclical capital buffer to the Swiss government, at last. A first step in preventing the Swiss asset bubble.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/the-countercyclical-capital-buffer-is-finally-there/
We show that Target2 imbalances and the SNB currency reserves represent the same issues, namely current account surpluses/deficits and capital flight. Therefore it makes sense to compare them, in total and by inhabitant.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/target2-snb-currency-reserves-feb2013/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/snb/target2-vs-snb-reserves-same-concept/
The U.S. economy regularly improves between October and April, this year additionally fueled by “indefinite” quantitative easing, weaker gas prices and higher competitiveness thanks to a stronger Chinese yuan and weaker Asian economies.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/02/sell-in-may-come-back-in-october/
When the Swiss National Bank introduced the 1.20 lower limit, it wanted to eliminate the deflationary risks for Switzerland. For a certain period, namely when a global recession was looming in Autumn 2011, and the Swiss franc was hovering around 1.10, this risk was really present. In this post we would like to know if …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/deflationary-risks-comparing-swiss-swedish-and-norwegian-inflation-and-exchange-rates/
We show that Target2 imbalances and the SNB currency reserves represent the same issues, namely current account surpluses/deficits and capital flight. Therefore it makes sense to compare them, in total and by inhabitant.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/target2-and-snb-currency-reserves/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/snb/snb-balance-sheet-vs-boj/
The newest paper by McCulley and Poszar “Helicopter Money: or how I stopped worrying and love fiscal-monetary cooperation” is often cited by leading economists, e.g. Eurointelligence or Paul Krugman in “Shinzo and the helicopters”. It presents fiscal policy and monetary policy divided in four areas along these two criteria. These two criteria correspond to fiscal and private spending and …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/helicopter-money-against-animal-spirits-critique/
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) obtained a profit of around 6 billion francs for the year 2012 (full statement). The profit was reduced from 16.9 billion francs between Q1 and Q3 2012, which means that in Q4/2012 the bank had a loss of around 10.9 billion francs. The profit in gold fell from 6.2 billion …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/snb-profit-6-billion-chf-over-the-year-10-billion-loss-in-q42012/
The same as every year in December/January: Swiss media and economists are doomsaying. This time they claim that the banking industry and the UBS job losses will bring Switzerland into trouble. Once again they do not understand that the Great Recession was only to a small part a banking crisis, but it was mostly a …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/swiss-doomsaying/
Why there is no real estate bubble in Switzerland yet and why the SNB will help to create one With the current recovery in the United States the discussion in Switzerland switched from a discussion about the EUR/CHF floor to the Swiss real estate boom, the so-called “housing bubble”. It seems that the Swiss …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/swiss-discussion-from-floor-housing-bubble/
In this post we show that the risks the Fed, the ECB and the Bundesbank incur are far smaller than the one the Swiss SNB takes. The Fed has “just” an inflation risk, that could cost 200 billion US$, 1.2% of US GDP. The ECB and Bundesbank have the risk that the euro zone splits …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/faustian-bargain-snb-ecb-fed-money-printing/
The SNB will not be able to realize a fixed currency peg against the euro over the long-term. One example of a fixed peg is Hong Kong. This country has a so-called “currency board” against the US dollar. The exchange rate between the US dollar and Hong Kong dollar is fixed. Hong Kong has managed to …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/snb-imitate-hong-kong-singapore/
SNB sight deposits Around 80% of the increase in the SNB reserves since 2011 was absorbed by foreign inflows in the capital (financial) account of the balance of payments. Only 20% correspond to the cumulated increase of the Swiss current account surplus, i.e. Swiss profit repatriation. Therefore, foreigners, and the capital flight of Swiss, that …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/snb-interventions-foreigners-take-profit-of-80-of-potential-snb-losses-swiss-only-20/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/snb/monthly-bulletin/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/snb/history-of-snb-sight-deposits/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/snb/upcoming-snb-events/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/snb/snb-monetary-policy-accessments/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/snb/snb-balance-sheet-expansion/
From the very beginning European leaders knew that they were building an ill-constructed currency, that’s what the Swiss papers now think about the European system. The papers ignore that a similar situation occurred with the valuation of the Swiss franc between 2005 and 2008. The SNB leaders knew about the strong franc’s undervaluation despite the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/parallels-european-snb-leaders/
After the disappointing US current account data, traders have realized which countries have strong trade balances, namely Germany and Switzerland (see here for our details on the ever rising Swiss trade surplus), additionally fueled the good German IFO data. Both the euro and the Swissie strongly rose against the dollar. Due to Abe’s pressure on the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/snb-losses-dec18/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/snb/imf-data/
The SNB decided to maintain the floor at 1.20 and the Libor target between 0% and 0.25%. As we expected in our outlook on the assessment, there were still important downwards drivers of inflation after the strong appreciation of the franc. Therefore, the SNB has moved its inflation expectations downwards for 2013 to minus 0.1% …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/snb-monetary-policy-assessment-december-2012/
Im Gegensatz zu Hongkong mit dem USD/HKD-Peg kann die Schweiz ein Currency Board, einen fixen Kurs zum Euro nicht für Jahre durchhalten. Die Gründe auf snbchf.com
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/warum-die-schweiz-nicht-einfach-hongkong-spielen-kann/
A discussion in the investor forum made clear how currency speculators currently help the SNB to maintain the floor against normal investors. A situation that was different in August/September 2011, when the SNB had to fight against these speculators. A discussion in the investor forum Seeking Alpha: part one Based on our analysis of …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/speculators-help-the-snb-to-fight-against-real-investors/
There are several different monetary aggregates used to measure a nation’s money supply. These monetary aggregates can be thought of as forming a continuum from most liquid (money as a means of exchange) to least liquid (money as a store of value). The “liquidity” of an asset is its readiness to be used as an …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/snb-definitions-of-money-supply/
Credit Suisse and UBS will charge negative interests for cash clearing clients above a threshold. Last year such news was worth 250 bps, on December 3 only 28 bips. One remembers August 26, 2011, when UBS only spoke of negative interests and consequently EUR/CHF rose from 1.1420 to 1.1688. At the time FX traders …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/12/arbitrage-trading-after-negative-cs-ubs-interest-rates/
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) had valuation losses of around 6 billion francs in October due to the weaker EUR/CHF exchange rate and a weaker gold price.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/11/snb-valuation-losses-in-october-6-billion-francs/
Barack Obama war und ist der präferierte Kandidat vieler Schweizer. Obama scheint der Mann von Welt zu sein, während vom konservativen Mitt Romney eher feindselige Politik gegen Russland, China und Iran zu erwarten ist. Daher sind die Neutralität- und Frieden-liebenden Schweizer eher auf Obamas Seite. Aber auch wirtschaftspolitisch scheinen viele Eidgenossen Obama zu mögen. …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/11/die-wiederwahl-obamas-bedeutet-nichts-gutes-fur-die-schweiz/
Eine neue komplettere Version dieses Kommentars kann hier gefunden werden. Heute meinte Markus Diem Meier von Finanz und Wirtschaft, dass er doch lieber Obama will. Insbesondere sagte er “Den Notenbankchef Ben Bernanke (eigentlich ein Republikaner) will Romney bei der Erneuerungswahl des Fed-Chefs loswerden. Die geldpolitischen Stimuli gelten den Republikanern genauso als Teufelswerk, wie eine aktive Fiskalpolitik, …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/11/doch-lieber-obama/
The site deposits at the SNB fell by 700 million francs in the week ending on November 2. Other side deposits, the ones of foreign banks and Swiss companies, increased by 2 billion francs, but the ones of local institutes fell by nearly 3 billion francs. This resets the counter movement in the previous week. …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/11/snb-monetary-data-week-november-2/
SNB Q3 Profits: 10 billion francs The Swiss National Bank (SNB) radically reduced its euro share, in the third quarter from 60% to 48%, and bought US dollars and sterling instead. In the second quarter, however, it increased the euro share from 51% to 60% and concentrated on buying euros. Given that the EUR/USD was …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/11/snb-q3-results-2012/
Trend Follower Ashraf Laidi Loses Against the Contrarian Investor SNB The currency strategist Ashraf Laidi recently evoked a EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.35 thanks to the risk appetite after the easing operations of the Fed and the ECB. We show that he and the masses of his Forex rooters actually traded against a big central …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/how-the-snb-destroyed-ashraf-laidis-eurusd-1-35-party/
Composition of SNB Forex Reserves, Q3 2012 The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reduced the share of euros in the third quarter substantially from 60% in Q2 to 48% in Q3 and increased dollar and pound positions. The SNB bought 80 billion euros or more when the common currency was trading around 1.24$, especially at the end of …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/snb-buys-eur-at-1-24-and-sells-at-1-30/
We think that the Swiss National Bank invested far more in Italian and Spanish bonds than analysts like Standard and Poor’s expected and was able to front-run ECB decisions. This new style of hedge funds, formerly called “central banks”, can refinance at zero percent and is able to show a lot better performance than the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/did-the-snb-front-run-ecb-decisions-far-ahead-of-hedge-funds/
Seasonal effects, the good months for the SNB and the US economy, but weaker ones for emerging markets and Switzerland Despite the seasonal effects between October and March, the SNB is not able to sell currency reserves consistently. Traditionally the USD gets stronger and stocks rise over the autumn months till January. This year’s stocks appreciation was possibly already anticipated …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/snb-monetary-data-week-october-26/
Seasonal effects, the good months for the SNB and the US economy, but weaker ones for emerging markets and Switzerland Given that the seasonal effects between October to March have started, the SNB might be able to sell some currency reserves. Traditionally both the USD gets stronger and stocks rise over the autumn months till January. This year’s stocks appreciation was …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/snb-monetary-data-week-october-19/
Seasonal effects, the good months for the SNB and the US economy, but weaker ones for emerging markets and Switzerland, have started Given that the seasonal effects between October to March have started, the SNB might be able to sell some currency reserves. Traditionally both the USD gets stronger and stocks rise over the autumn months till January. This year’s stocks …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/snb-monetary-data-week-october-1/
This link on the SNB website shows the data the central bank provides to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It shows the SNB Forex and gold reserves in the last month. It is so-called “IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SNB Data)” It is released together with the international investment position, some monetary aggregates and the balance of payments two weeks after …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/imf-data-snb-forex-reserves-and-gold-in-september-2012/
Seasonal effects, the good months for the SNB and the US economy, but weaker ones for emerging markets and Switzerland, have started Given that the seasonal effects between October to March have started, the SNB might be able to sell some currency reserves. Traditionally the United States and the USD dollar become stronger and stocks rise over the autumn months …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/snb-monetary-data-week-october-5/
Standard and Poor’s critique of the Swiss National Bank, Part 2, extracts from our full report As many readers of our blog know, we are not the best of friends with the current Swiss National Bank (SNB) policy: we recently published a paper claiming that the SNB will go bankrupt and …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/is-standard-and-poors-a-rating-or-a-rumor-agency/
Seasonal effects, the good months for the SNB and the US economy, but weaker ones for emerging markets and Switzerland, have started Given that the seasonal effects between October to March have started, the SNB might be able to sell some currency reserves. Traditionally the United States and the USD dollar become stronger over the autumn months till …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/10/snb-monetary-data-week-of-september-28/
Part 1: Swiss investments abroad [This paper includes some of the S&P critique, but also aims to clarify some of S&P's misleading points] Last Thursday Thomas Moser, a member of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) governing council, said that one of the main reasons for the strong franc is the conversion of Swiss foreign incomes …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/standard-and-poors-part1/
The most recent SNB monetary data show that more and more companies are increasing their deposits at the central bank at a quicker speed than local banks. Might this be missing trust in the Swiss banking system ?
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/snb-monetary-data-week-ending-september-21/
Swiss Gross National Income (GNI) rises by 1.8% in Q2, after Q1 +0.5% According to the latest SNB Monthly Bulletin, the Swiss net international investment position (NIIP) has improved by 64.5 billion francs. The Gross National Income (GNI) rises by 1.8% in Q2. The SNB currency reserves rose by 128 Bln. Francs in the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/swiss-international-investment-positions/
Abstract We determine the main criteria with which markets evaluate currency prices. We focus on explaining the differences between the carry trade era (or like Ben Barnanke called it “The Great Moderation”) and the period after the financial crisis. Our research shows that each one of the following three main preconditions must be fulfilled, …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/myth-1-snb-profits-on-reserves/
Isn’t it wonderful to have a strong central bank like the SNB sitting behind you when trading Forex? Losses are limited to the floor of 1.20 and in the meantime you can gain forward swaps with the higher euro zone interest rates. Today the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided in its monetary policy assessment …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/it-is-so-wonderful-to-trade-with-a-central-bank/
A bit breathlessly…. The next SNB rumor story comes from the so-well established Wall Street Journal, its columnist Nick Hastings. WSJ: The Swiss National Bank was bold before. And the central bank would be well advised to be just as bold again. When the SNB announced just over a year ago that it was setting a …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/the-next-rumor-wall-street-journal/
As we expected in our post “What’s this crazy movement in EUR/CHF ? SNB Floor Hike ?“, long-time investors, global macro funds and US investment banks are moving into gold and the Swiss franc again. The SNB had to buy euros and print new Swiss francs of around 5 billion francs last week, as …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/september7-snb-prints/
In this post we show that the risks the Fed, the ECB and the Bundesbank incur are far smaller than the one the Swiss SNB takes. The Fed has “just” an inflation risk, that could cost 200 billion US$, 1.2% of US GDP. The ECB and Bundesbank have the risk that the euro zone splits …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/09/the-big-swiss-faustian-bargain/
Here a translation of the interview with the president of the Swiss National Bank, Thomas Jordan, in the finance magazine ECO of the Swiss television SF1. Here the original German video. Question: Given that the SNB has reserves of over 200 bln. Euros, are you still able to sleep ? Jordan: We are in a …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/the-full-text-of-the-interview-with-thomas-jordan/
Today Thomas Jordan gave a quick interview in the Swiss television. Everything was so well prepared and as sterilized. Thomas Jordan learned all answers by heart and was answered the questions about one second after the question was asked. It reminded me of an interview in Soviet television with former Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev. Each …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/the-interview-with-thomas-jordan/
The Jackson Hole Symposium is traditionally a meeting of global central bankers, here the 2010 attendance list. This year it takes place between August 30 and September 1. Central bankers assemble The annual economic symposium for central bankers staged by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City begins in Jackson Hole, Colorado (until September 1). …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/snb-not-at-jackson-hole/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/snb/
There are already three former European central bankers who criticize more or less openly the European Central Bank (ECB). Axel Weber, former president of the Bundesbank Axel Weber quit the Bundesbank in February 2011 after he realized that the ECB violated the “non state financing” principle with the first SMP programs for Greece and Portugal. Later he took …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/08/former-central-bankers-against-their-colleagues/
Mit dem SNB Zwischenbericht heute wurde es klar, dass die Schweizerische Nationalbank 77% der im zweiten Quartal um 125 Milliarden Franken erhöhten Devisenreserven in Euro investiert hat. Die Abhängigkeit vom Euro ist so gross geworden, so dass die Schweiz gezwungen sein könnte, ein Teil der Eurozone zu werden, wenn sie einen riesigen Verlust vermeiden will. …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/73prozent-ch-einkommen-in-euro/
With the SNB results today it became clear that the Swiss National Bank has invested 77% of the huge 125 billion CHF rise in currency reserves during the second quarter into Euros. The dependency on the euro has become that big, so that the Swiss might be obliged to join the euro zone if they …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/73-of-swiss-income-invested-in-euro/
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reported a profit of 6.5 billion Swiss Franc for the first half year (H1). After a loss of 1.7 bln. francs in the first quarter (Q1), it had a 8.2 billion profit for the second quarter (Q2). The Q2 SNB results of 8.2 bln. CHF were less than our …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/snb-reports-6-5-billion-profit-for-h1-8-2-billion-q2/
Am 31. Juli um 7.30 Uhr wird die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) den Zwischenbericht für das zweite Quartal 2012 herausgeben. Wir offerieren unseren Lesern schon jetzt eine Schätzung. Wir rechnen mit einem Gewinn von 10,65 Milliarden CHF dank der starken Erhöhung der Devisenreserven in den Monaten Mai und Juni und der Abschwächung des Franken gegenüber dem US-Dollar, …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/snb-zwischenbericht-2-quartal-2012-eine-schatzung/
On July 31st the Swiss National Bank will publish interim results for the second quarter 2012. Already now we offer an estimate to our readers. Our estimate does not cover the central bank’s Forex trading results, they are difficult to estimate. A central bank is not a day trader, therefore the influence should be limited. …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/snb-results-q2-first-estimate/
The Swiss National Bank would realize a loss of 31 bln. francs, if it accepted a EUR/CHF exchange rate of 1.10 instead 1.20 and if we assume that the Swissie also appreciates against the dollar and other currencies
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/07/eurchf-1-10-snb-31-bln-loss-each-swiss-losing-150-francs-week/
The win for the pro-bailout parties in the Greek elections was no win for the Swiss National Bank (SNB), even if the fear of an immediate bank-run and extreme money flows into Switzerland are avoided. Also the fact that QE3 is not coming in the next weeks did not help the SNB.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/the-win-of-the-pro-bailout-parties-in-the-greek-elections-was-no-win-for-the-snb/
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/snb/compositio-of-snb-reserves/
Will the SNB printing policy lead to inflation and a housing bust when Germany leaves the Euro ? Recently the voices for a German euro exit have become louder and louder. The most recent voice comes from Biderman , the FT says that the rise of German Bunds holds the secret how the eurozone crisis will …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/is-the-snb-prepared-for-the-black-swan/
According to the newest monetary data, in the week ending June 8th, the unsterialized money supply (as measured in sight deposits of domestic and foreign banks and deposits by the Swiss confederation) increased by 14 billion Swiss francs.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/another-week-another-14-bln-francs-printed/
How the SNB Chairman Jordan has invited hedge funds and smart investors to a risk-free, high-return guaranteed investment in Swiss francs A wrap-up of Swiss newspapers for non-German literates In parallel to the start of the UEFA Euro 2012, the Swiss National Bank and its policy towards the EUR/CHF exchange rate has become a political …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/the-swiss-national-bank-and-the-eurchf-floor-have-become-a-political-football/
The “Sell in May, come back in October” effect It is the same seasonal anomaly nearly every year: The statistically flawed (see here and here) Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report delivers some good winter readings with 200K new jobs, this time additionally fuelled by a weather effect; biased data that let hard-core Keynesian policy makers doubt Okun’s law. Consequently the stock markets rally …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/snb-sell-in-may-come-back-in-october/
The most recent money supply data from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has shown increases of huge amounts. As compared with its loss of 19 bln. francs in 2010 (3% percent of the Swiss GDP), the central bank printed tremendous 17.3 bln. in the week ending in June 1st and 13 bln. in the one …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/06/a-central-bank-running-suicide-snb-prints-at-pace-never-seen-since-eurchf-parity-in-august-2011/
There are currently rumors going on on CNBC that the SNB is planning something this night. As we explained here, the SNB had to strongly restart the printing press and printed tremendous 13 bln francs in one week. Moreover, they probably sold some of their in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 acquired GBP, JYP and …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/cnbc-rumors-that-something-is-going-on-at-snb-6-possibilities-for-us/
As explained in our previous post, at least till May 4th the Swiss National Bank could have been a net buyer of GBP, USD and JPY selling Euros off their balance sheet. In the week of May 11, QE3 talk came up together with a bad Phily Fed reading. From then the SNB had to acquire …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/snb-switched-from-selling-euros-to-buying-euros/
The game for the Swiss National Bank seems to have changed completely. Again the central bank had increase money supply, as measured by deposits at the SNB by local banks and other sight deposits, this time even by 13219 mil. francs (source). This money printing implies that the SNB had to buy in Euros in …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/huge-rise-in-currency-reserves-the-snb-has-restarted-the-printing-press/
For the first time the chairman of the Swiss National Bank Jordan has admitted that the EUR/CHF floor of 1.20 will not be raised. In an interview with the Swiss Sonntagszeitung, here also cited by Bloomberg, he said:
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/snbs-jordan-admits-that-eurchf-floor-will-not-be-raised/
Exactly when the US had a relatively good Markit Flash PMI, rumors are sent out that deposits in CHF for foreigners should be taxed. To send out this rumor together with good US data seems to be intentional. According to Banque CIC the SNB has declined to comment. We remember the last SNB meeting when similar rumors circulated.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/rumors-about-tax-on-swiss-deposits-for-foreigners-and-further-snb-measures-snb-begging-for-pips/
Or why the biggest opponents of the SNB are not Weltwoche and the SVP (Swiss People’s Party) but the Federal Reserve
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/why-the-floor-will-never-be-lifted-to-1-25/
Some economists have claimed that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be always able to maintain the floor. As opposed to George Soros’ defeat of the Bank of England, the SNB is able to print money ad infinitum, whereas the BoE had limited currency reserves to support sterling. The question, however, is where this “infinitum” …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/will-the-snb-double-or-triple-the-forex-reserves-before-they-give-in/
As we have showed in a preceding post, the SNB seems to have decided the peg the franc to the euro at 1.20. Therefore the SNB traders were actively selling euros and buying francs even close to the floor limit of 1.20. But then in the beginning of April some Asian traders managed to push the …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/why-the-snb-fixed-the-peg-at-1-2010-and-not-at-1-2000/
Markets report a 7 bln. bid on behalf of the SNB. We will report asap the SNB May 25th monetary data which will give a prove of these rumors. Here the May 18th data where the SNB had to raise additional 3.7 bln. CHF to buy euros.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/big-bid-on-behalf-of-the-snb/
As also noticed by Credit Suisse, the Swiss National Bank had to buy euros and sell Swiss francs in the week of May 11th to May 18th. Their recent easy strategy to sell euros and buy Swiss Francs and to diversify from euros into other currencies may not continue.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/is-the-play-time-over-for-the-snb-snb-buying-euros-again-but-the-eurchf-does-not-move-a-pip/
A former SNB chief economist says that capital controls are impossible, just empty words. In case of a Euro break-up the Swissie must rise together with USD, GBP and JPY An article, surprisingly from the usually left-wing Tagesanzeiger, more or less closely translated with some additional remarks.
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/former-snb-chief-economist-capital-controls-are-just-empty-words/
1) CHF export-weighted exchange rate has strongly fallen, how many subsidies is the SNB willing to pay? 2) Doomsday Financial Blogs: The Answer of Free Minds to the Always Positive Official Prophecies 3) The G8 has decided that European consumers should spend now instead of austerity Just looking which world or European consumers will really start …
Permanent link to this article: http://snbchf.com/2012/05/forthcoming-articles/
