by George Dorgan
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UPDATE, February 2014
According to the latest data from the SECO,Swiss GDP rose by 2% in 2014 and not by 0.9% as the UBS predicted.
Once again the Swiss economy seems to be stronger than expected. UBS’s consumption indicator for April came out at 1.46 (details).
This number seems at odds with the weak private consumption in UBS’s Swiss economic forecast, that predicted Swiss private consumption to rise only by 0.9% against 2.8% in 2012.
Furthermore, the Swiss continue to create jobs: employment has risen by 2% in Q1/2013, 2.8% against the previous quarter. 4.15 Million employees from 4.10 Million last month, 4.04 Million a year ago (source).
Despite these two strong figures, the consensus forecast of Swiss GDP is only 0.2% in Q1/2013.
| UBS Swiss economic forecasts (March 2013) |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % change yoy in real terms | Forecasts UBS | |||||||
| Level* | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013F | 2014F | |
| Gross Domestic Product | 593.0 | 2.2 | -1.9 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Private consumption | 343.5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Government spending | 66.7 | -2.5 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| Capital spending | 118.6 | 0.7 | -8.0 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 3.1 |
| Construction | 53.1 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.4 | -3.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Equipment | 65.5 | 1.1 | -15.5 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 3.7 |
| Exports | 303.3 | 2.9 | -7.7 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 5.1 |
| Imports | 242.5 | -0.3 | -5.2 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 5.6 |
| Inflation | 2.4 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.8 | |
| Unemployment rate | 2.6 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.4 | |
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers.
George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
Tags: Consumption indicator,Swiss economy,U.S. Consumer Spending,UBS
